Super Bowl Rematch: Huge For Stocks?

By David Parkinson

I'm not picking a favourite for this weekend's Super Bowl. I like them both.

Or, more to the point, I like that they're playing each other.

You see, the New York Giants and New England Patriots met once before in a Super Bowl, in 2008. And Standard and Poor's reports that in a year when there's a Super Bowl rematch, the S&P 500 has risen, on average, 19 per cent.

So I'm just going to buy the index and put my feet up - the Giants and Pats have already locked in some sweet gains for me for the rest of 2012, simply because they've gathered in Indianapolis to smash into each other for a few hours, again.

OK, OK - even S&P isn't claiming that this is anything more than a fun, quirky fact utterly lacking in scientific rigor. (The phrase "light-hearted" forms the fifth and sixth words in S&P's news release on the matter.) This is only the sixth time in 46 years (or, in Super Bowl parlance, XLVI years) that two former combatants have met again, hardly a big enough sample to establish a trend.

Besides, S&P says, there are other statistics that suggest we'd be better off if two completely different teams were fighting for the Lombardi Trophy.

Although either one of them would be a repeat champion (and stocks have risen an average of 13 per cent when a previous winner repeats), the numbers are lousy in years when either the Giants or the Patriots have won the big game. In the three years in which the Pats won, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.1 per cent. In the three years when the Giants won, the average loss has been 0.5 per cent.

In that light, maybe we should hope for a massive snowstorm to cancel the game entirely. No such luck - it's being played indoors. (Average S&P 500 return in the 14 years in which the game has been played in a domed stadium = 3 per cent.)

Disclosure: None