Tuesday, April 30, 2013

These Tech Companies Have the Most Loyal Customers

If you've walked around inside an electronics store like Best Buy recently, the sheer number of electronic choices with regard to tablets, computers, printers, smartphones, et al., can be overwhelming. Yet for all the consumer electronics we buy, certain brands stand out as clear winners among consumers.

Brand Keys, a customer loyalty research company, has been ranking 375 of the United States' top brand names into dozens of categories for the past 17 years. Recently, utilizing its Customer Loyalty Engagement Index, Brand Keys broke down six consumer electronics sectors into its respective peers and delivered a brand loyalty winner in each category.

Today, I want to not only give kudos to the winners of Brand Keys' loyalty assessment, but also examine what the factors were that helped these companies achieve their segment-leading success. Understanding what these companies are doing right could help us find the next groundbreaking tech sector investment.

Computers (laptops)
With PC sales dropping more in the first quarter than at any other time in their history, competition among laptop makers is getting fiercer by the day -- and margins thinner. This is a sector that requires constant innovation, so, as to be expected, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and Samsung tied for the top spot.

Apple certainly won't win any acclaim for its higher price points from consumers, but its thinner and lighter MacBook Air, sleek designs catered to millennials, and non-Windows-based operating system are enough to drive plenty of customer loyalty. In addition, it's Apple -- would we really expect anything less than perfection?

As a user of a Samsung laptop, I can tell you it has done a marvelous job creating eye-pleasing designs that are becoming lighter in feel, and are also geared toward a younger generation. With innovation being everything in the tech sector, these two companies are head of the pack.

E-readers
It's getting tougher to differentiate the difference between an e-reader and a tablet these days, but Brand Keys did its best to separate the two when conducting its survey. According to the results, Amazon.com's (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) Kindle topped the list.

This really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, since Amazon's Kindle was the revolutionary technology that led the transformation away from the bricks-and-mortar bookstore and into the convenience of an at-home reader. As the innovator, I would have been shocked not to have seen Amazon atop the rankings. What's more interesting in this category was that Barnes & Noble's Nook took the No. 2 spot ahead of the Apple iPad. It's quite possible that few consumers think of the iPad in terms of being an e-reader, so I wouldn't read into that too much (pun completely intended), but it was nonetheless a surprise.

Flat-screen TVs
Samsung's dominance continues in the flat-screen television category, taking the top ranking ahead of Vizio. Just as we witnessed with laptops, Samsung is catering to a younger generation of consumers by relying on thin, but simple, designs, and actionable, but fun, advertising to reach this group of individuals. Samsung's price point certainly will be higher than many of its peers, but it's also delivering on the higher expectations by consumers of a crisper picture with more user-programmable options.

Printers
First of all, yes, people still use printers; and that's very good news for Canon (NYSE: CAJ  ) , which topped the printer category yet again. The ease of use for Canon printers, and the amount of specialization they can provide in an enterprise work environment, makes Canon a logical choice to continue topping this category for years to come. As a leader in customer service and a provider of stylish designs to personal consumers, Canon is a leading gadget designer.

Smartphones
Try not to be too surprised here, but Apple is not No. 1! Samsung actually trumped Apple in smartphones with its innovative Galaxy S-series, as its touch-to-touch file sharing and bigger screen appear to be wooing consumers in greater numbers.


Source: Vinith Devdas, Commons.wikimedia.org. 

It's also worth noting that Samsung smartphones run off Google's Android operating system which is the dominant OS around the world by market share. In the U.S. the difference isn't that noticeable, but outside the U.S., Android is Goliath, with nearly 70% of global market share and Apple would be the equivalent of David with close to 20% market share. Consumers love to own dominant brands, plain and simple.

Tablets
As I prefaced previously, there isn't a huge difference these days between an e-reader and a tablet, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Amazon took the cake here in brand loyalty. It's a bit disconcerting that the inventor of the tablet, Apple, only managed to take the No. 2 spot, but Amazon's functional Kindle Fire that dramatically undercuts Apple on price could be a key reason it takes the top honor.

What's the takeaway?
Now that we've had a closer look at which companies took this year's top honors according to the Brand Keys survey, let's examine what common themes exist among these consumer electronics that might help us recognize the next big winner.

To begin with, innovation is everything. Apple has been the king of innovators for years, but it hasn't truly changed the game since it introduced the iPad a few years ago. In the smartphone sector, BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) has been even worse. It took countless delays and nearly two years to introduce its new BlackBerry Q10 and Z10, which run on its own proprietary operating system. Thus far, reaction to the new smartphones has been lukewarm at best, as BlackBerry brought up the caboose in terms of smartphone brand loyalty.

Secondly, design matters. Millennials are caring more and more about their own image and the design of the products they use, so functionality needs to extend far beyond just what the product can do and into the actual styling of the device. Samsung's thin and sleek TV designs and Apple's lightweight and colorful laptops are prime examples of hitting on this point.

Finally, price is important, but it's also not a breaking point if the higher-priced product can deliver added value to the consumer. Amazon's Kindle Fire, for instance, generates top-tier tablet loyalty because it's both a cheaper alternative to the iPad and possesses a strong brand name. However, in laptops, Apple and Samsung offer arguably the most expensive price points, but are generally regarded as the leading brands in terms of functionality and status. In contrast, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL  ) ranked dead last in laptops despite its cheaper price point, as its laptops are losing their brand identity and have failed to keep up with Samsung or Apple in design freshness.

Can Apple regain its swagger?
There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded, with more than 1,000% gains. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Is Enterprise Products Partners a Must-Buy?

Why MicroStrategy Shares Plunged

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR  ) have plunged today by as much as 13% after the company reported first-quarter earnings.

So what: Revenue in the first quarter added up to $130.2 million, a 6% decline from a year ago. That translated into a loss from continuing operations of $5.2 million, or $0.46 per share. Those figures looked poor relative to consensus estimates, which were calling for $152.4 million in sales and $0.35 per share in profit.

Now what: The company reported a one-time gain of $57.4 million from the sale of Angel.com, but investors are more concerned with continuing operations. Product license revenues were down 24%, while support and services revenues were mostly flat. MicroStrategy has extended its share repurchase program through 2018, and still has $454 million remaining in the authorization.

Interested in more info on MicroStrategy? Add it to your watchlist by clicking here.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Why Phillips 66 Is Ready to Rebound

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, oil and gas refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Phillips 66 and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Phillips 66 facts

Headquarters (founded)

Houston (1875)

Market Cap

$38.3 billion

Industry

Oil and gas refining and marketing

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$166.2 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Greg Garland

CFO Gregory Maxwell

Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity

18.7%

Cash/Debt

$3.5 billion / $7.0 billion

Dividend Yield

2%

Competitors

Marathon Petroleum

Valero Energy

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 98% of the 302 members who have rated Phillips 66 believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, dylan588, succinctly summed up the Phillips 66 bull case for our community:

There will be a growing demand for gasoline in both domestic and foreign markets. Phillips 66 not only has several refineries to meet this demand, it is in a position to change over to the relatively inexpensive domestic oil from foreign oil. This change alone should add significant profits.

Of course, there are many different ways to play the energy sector, and The Motley Fool's analysts have uncovered an under-the-radar company that's dominating its industry. This company is a leading provider of equipment and components used in drilling and production operations, and poised to profit in a big way from it. To get the name and detailed analysis of this company that will prosper for years to come, check out the special free report: "The Only Energy Stock You'll Ever Need." Don't miss out on this limited-time offer and your opportunity to discover this under-the-radar company before the market does. Click here to access your report -- it's totally free.

Will Americans Buy a Diesel Chevy Cruze?

The 2014 Chevrolet Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel – that's the official name – may not look exciting, but it's GM's new attempt to introduce Americans to the advantages of high-tech diesel engines. Photo credit: General Motors

General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) recently announced that it would begin offering its popular Chevy Cruze compact with an option rarely seen in cars outside of Europe – a diesel engine.

The Chevrolet Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel, as it's officially called, will go on sale in a few American cities this spring, ahead of a nationwide rollout in the fall.

Why would you want one? For starters, great mileage: It's EPA-rated for 46 miles per gallon on the highway, which GM says is better than any non-hybrid passenger car sold in America.

That's an eye-catching statement. But for those of a certain age, who remember the smoky and slow diesel cars sold here in the 1970s and 1980s, it might take more than a little persuading to put the new diesel Cruze on shopping lists.

Diesel cars are common in Europe, but still unusual here
Nearly everybody offers a big range of diesel car engines in Europe, where taxes on gasoline are high and diesel is a widely accepted alternative. Ford's (NYSE: F  ) "Econetic" diesel Focus, which is said to have CO2 output comparable to a hybrid, is just one of a range of diesel cars offered by the Blue Oval in Europe – but not sold here.

Most of Ford's European competitors offer advanced diesel powertrains, and they sell well on the continent. They're good cars: Regulatory pressure and advances in technology mean that today's diesel engines have come a long way. Today's best diesel cars are strong and responsive – and most importantly, clean.

The oil-burning Cruze's engine is a 2.0-liter unit that uses the so-called "clean diesel" technology that has become ubiquitous in Europe. Clean diesel – essentially, advanced fuel injection coupled with turbocharging – eliminates much of the soot and smell that was associated with older diesel engines.

The Cruze's engine was developed in Europe (naturally), where about 40% of the Cruzes sold are equipped with diesel engines, and modified to meet U.S. regulations, which differ from the European Union's somewhat.

Despite the emphasis on "clean," performance doesn't suffer. GM says that the diesel Cruze will go from zero to 60 miles per hour in 8.6 seconds. That's hardly sports-car territory, but it beats Toyota's (NYSE: TM  ) hybrid Prius, which takes 9.8 seconds to hit 60, Toyota says.

Diesel engines cost more to build than gas engines, and that means that the diesel Cruze isn't cheap at $25,695. But it's not bad given the mileage and performance. For someone with a long-haul highway commute, it might make a lot of sense.

So why aren't there more diesels here?
It's a good question. Among mass-market automakers, only Volkswagen (NASDAQOTH: VLKAY  ) seems to sell significant quantities of diesel cars in the United States. VW says that cars powered by its clean diesel engines accounted for 22.6% of its U.S. sales in March, a 6.6% increase over last year. Maybe it's a German thing?

Of course, Ford sells plenty of cars in Germany, too, and GM even owns a German automaker – Opel. Ford COO Mark Fields said earlier this year that the company could "react very quickly" if diesels were to start to gain popularity in the U.S. Ford offers diesel engines in its heavy-duty F-Series pickups, but it hasn't yet announced plans to offer any of its clean diesel powertrains in passenger cars here in the U.S.

That's too bad. VW's ongoing success with diesel cars in the U.S. suggests that a market can be found for the new generation of high-tech oil-burners here. If GM's new diesel Cruze catches on, maybe more diesel cars will follow.

What do you think? Would you buy a diesel-powered car if more were available? Scroll down to leave a comment and let me know.

Is GM's stock a buy? Or is it best avoided?
Few companies lead to such strong feelings as General Motors. But ignoring emotions to make good investing decisions is hard. The Motley Fool's premium GM research service can help, by telling you the truth about GM's growth potential in coming years. (Hint: It's even bigger than you think. But it's not a sure thing, and we'll help you understand why.) It might help give you the courage to be greedy while others are still fearful, as well as a better understanding of the real risks facing General Motors. Just click here to get started now.

Is Vonage's Stock Destined for Greatness?

Monday's Top News Headlines

Here are today's top news headlines from Fool.com. Check back throughout the day as this list is updated, and follow us on Twitter at TMFBreaking.

Report: China: America's Third Largest Export Market

New Poll Reveals Middle Class Anxiety

15-Year Mortgages Now Cheaper Than 1-Year ARMs

Commerce Department Releases Q1 GDP

Cyprus Tries to Make Politicians More Accountable

German Inflation Down, Door Open for ECB Rate Cut


More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Rockwell Collins Declares Dividend, Announces Q2 Results and Management Change

Yesterday, a day before Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL  ) unveiled its latest quarterly results, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share of its common stock. This amount matches Rockwell Collins' previous four quarterly distributions.

The latest payment will be on June 3 to shareholders of record as of May 13. Prior to paying $0.30 per share, the company maintained a payout of $0.24 per share from mid-2008 until early 2012.

The company today reported second-quarter earnings per share of $1.17,  a 7% increase over the prior year. Rockwell Collins attributed the EPS increase to "the favorable effect of the company's share repurchase program." Net income for the second quarter was $161 million, the same as the second quarter last year.

The company also announced today that Chairman and CEO Clay Jones, 64, will retire July 31 after almost 34 years of service. Rockwell Collins President Kelly Ortberg, 52, is expected to succeed Jones as CEO at that time. Jones will remain on the company's board of directors as non-executive chairman.

Although the firm dispenses a dividend on a regular basis, it does not raise it very often. Since the summer of 2001, only four increases have been enacted. The new dividend annualizes to $1.20 per share. That yields 2% at Rockwell Collins' current stock price of $59.68.

link

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Enterprise Products Partners Looks to Keep Growing

On Tuesday, Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

With all the energy-production activity in the U.S., higher volumes have strained the capacity of the existing network of pipelines that deliver energy products to refiners and end markets. For Enterprise Products Partners, that represents a huge growth opportunity. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Enterprise Products Partners over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Enterprise Products Partners

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.65

Change From Year-Ago EPS

(11%)

Revenue Estimate

$11.61 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

3.2%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

4

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Enterprise Products Partners keep investors happy this quarter?
Analysts have gotten more optimistic about Enterprise Products Partners and its earnings prospects in recent months, pushing their first-quarter earnings estimates up by $0.03 per share and raising their calls for full-year 2013 earnings by twice that amount. The stock has responded favorably, rising more than 12% since late January.

The need for more energy infrastructure in the U.S. has become much greater in recent years, given booms in production in areas across the country. Through its Seaway pipeline joint venture with Enbridge (NYSE: ENB  ) , Enterprise controls a key link between the Gulf Coast's major refining hub and the pipeline-network hub in Cushing, a small town between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

Of course, Enterprise isn't the only player in the space. Midstream giant Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP  ) has been pushing hard to extend its lead in the industry, with its recent purchase of Copano Energy giving Kinder Morgan both pipeline and processing-facility assets in the important Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas.

But one largely unknown yet important focus area that Enterprise has thrived in is the natural gas liquids space. As dry-gas prices fell, many producers looked to boost their NGL output because of its more lucrative pricing. Enterprise has a huge NGL infrastructure that includes fractionators, import and export terminals, and a pipeline network that connects to most of the nation's production facilities for ethylene, which is a necessary component for producing vital plastics and other chemicals.

Still, Enterprise could face a big threat from lawmakers in Washington. The master limited partnership tax structure that Enterprise and many other midstream producers use has exploded in popularity, with many companies seeking to create nontraditional MLPs. Overusing the MLP tax benefit could lead Congress to take it away even for legitimate users like Enterprise that have clearly done exactly what the law intended to encourage.

In Enterprise's earnings report, focus on comments from management about where the company's best prospects for future growth are. With advantages like not having to pay incentive distributions to general partners, Enterprise unitholders can reap the full benefit of growth opportunities in the industry.

Learn more about how Enterprise can benefit from booming energy production by reading our premium research report on the MLP. To get your copy, click here now and check it out today.

Click here to add Enterprise Products Partners to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

11 Signs That Berkshire Is Built to Last

Warren Buffett is known for being a long-term investor. And I mean long-term investor. In one of Buffett's best-known quips, he said:

"When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."

When we look at Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway  (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) , though, is it an "outstanding business" that investors can consider holding forever? I think so, and following are 11 reasons I believe Berkshire is built to succeed for years -- and decades -- to come.

11. Succession plans
There are companies that talk about succession plans and there are companies that make succession plans. Berkshire is a company that has made succession plans. We've seen the company add investors Todd Combs and Ted Weschler into the mix, and Buffett has assured investors that there is an unnamed but ready-to-step-in operational replacement for the Oracle.

10. Acquisition of capital-intensive businesses
In recent years, Berkshire has bought large, capital-intensive businesses -- most notably BNSF Railway. What these businesses give Berkshire is a vehicle into which it can, year after year after year, deploy large chunks of capital and earn reasonable returns.

9. Conservative investment portfolio
If there's one thing that people think of Warren Buffett as, it's a great investor. But he's also a very conservative investor -- particularly when it comes to Berkshire's portfolio. Berkshire's "big four" stocks -- Wells Fargo  (NYSE: WFC  ) , Coca-Cola  (NYSE: KO  ) , IBM  (NYSE: IBM  ) , and American Express -- are all companies that we could see solid returns from in the years ahead. But, more importantly, they're all companies that we're unlikely to see drastic underperformance from. 

8. Decentralized management 
There's no doubt about it -- Warren Buffett is important to Berkshire Hathaway. However, Buffett is not important when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the many companies that Berkshire owns. Why? Because the company was set up so that those companies run very much as independent entities. This ensures that many of the day-to-day operations of the Berkshire empire won't be knocked off course if there's a change in the CEO suite.

7. GEICO and other insurers with "high quality" float
Berkshire has found much of its success through investing the float -- that is, money held for policyholders -- of its insurance companies. As Buffett has reminded shareholders many times over, though, not all float is created equal. At Berkshire, the top-notch management teams at the insurance subsidiaries don't just work to provide lots of float that Buffett, Combs, and Weschler can invest; they provide "high quality" float that pays Berkshire through profitable underwriting.

6. Business model
The business model at Berkshire is one of the most beautiful aspects of the company. At the core there are Berkshire's high-quality insurance businesses -- including the ubiquitous GEICO -- that provide investable capital. At the same time, there is a small army of retail, manufacturing, and other wholly owned businesses that spit off free cash flow that can be invested or used to buy even more businesses. 

5. Berkshire aura
To be fair, if Berkshire started performing horribly at some future date after Warren Buffett had passed away, the Berkshire aura would likely start to dissipate. But up until that point, Berkshire will continue to carry that je ne sais quoi that allows the company to acquire companies and structure investments -- like Bank of America preferred stock and warrants -- that most investors don't have access to.

4. Diversification
What is Berkshire really? An investment company? An insurer? A retail conglomerate? It's actually all of those things, and more. Investing in Berkshire in many ways is similar to investing in a high-quality mutual fund that provides exposure to many different industries all at once. 

3. Other operating businesses
See's Candies, RC Willey, The Pampered Chef, NetJets, Benjamin Moore, Fruit of the Loom, Business Wire, Brooks, Dairy Queen. These companies are familiar to people all over the country -- and in some cases the world -- because these Berkshire-owned business are among the best, if not the best, in their respective industries. 

2. Shareholders
A major challenge for many publicly traded companies is trying to appease shareholders on a quarter-to-quarter basis on the basis of Wall Street analysts' earnings estimates. Having shareholders who ... um, freak out when you don't meet quarterly estimates makes it much more difficult to keep a focus on the long term. While Berkshire has a very diversified shareholder base, many of its owners are fans of Buffett and have been listening to him extol the virtues of long-term investing for years, if not decades. In other words, it's a very well-coached group of owners.

1. Built by Buffett and Munger
There will be a day when Buffett and his right-hand man, Charlie Munger, will no longer be running Berkshire. But this is a company that was built by those two. It's a group of leaders -- both at the top and within all of the individual subsidiaries -- that these two have faith in. And its a company that's imbued with closely held Buffett views like:

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."

Heading to Omaha
On May 4, Berkshire Hathaway will be holding its epic annual meeting in Omaha, and the Fool will be there to bring you everything you need to know from this "Woodstock for Capitalists." Simply click here to follow along with all of the Fool's coverage.

Still time to buy?
Thanks to the savvy of investing legend Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share has grown a mind-blowing 586,817% over the past 48 years. But with Buffett aging and Berkshire rapidly evolving, is this insurance conglomerate still a buy today? In The Motley Fool's premium report on the company, Berkshire expert Joe Magyer provides investors with key reasons to buy as well as important risks to watch out for. Click here now for instant access to Joe's take on Berkshire!

Under Armour Trounces Q1 Earnings Estimates

Athletic apparel maker Under Armour  (NYSE: UA  )  reported first-quarter earnings that fell 50% year over year but handily beat the Capital IQ consensus estimates by $0.03 per share. Revenues surged 22% year over year, coming in well ahead of estimates. 

Under Armour recorded revenues of $4712.6 million in the quarter that ended March 31, easily outpacing last year's $384.4 million effort and ahead of Wall Street's estimates of $468.4 million. On the bottom line, it generated $7.8 million, or $0.07 per share, down sharply from the year-ago figure of $0.14 per share but well ahead of the $0.03-per-share estimate.

The profit decline was driven largely by increases in its planned marketing expenditures, which saw SG&A expenses jump almost 35% from the year-ago figure and caused operating income to tumble 44% to $13.5 million.

Under Armour Chairman and CEO Kevin Plank said, "Our strong start to 2013 was underscored by the successful debut of our first of three Brand Holidays planned for this year, which included our largest ever global marketing campaign, I WILL. As part of this Brand Holiday, we opened the first UA Brand House retail store in our hometown of Baltimore, launched the first-of-its kind performance monitoring system for athletes, Armour39, and expanded our footwear running platform led by UA Spine Venom."

Apparel revenues jumped primarily because of the introduction of new Baselayer products and strong sales of fleece while footwear sales surged 27% to $81 million as it introduced new running styles, particularly UA Spine Venom.

The apparel maker plans to hold an investor day conference on June 5. It ended the quarter with $256 million in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, a 139% increase from 2012, while long-term debt decreased to $60 million.

A Mining Play That Shouldn't Sink?

Despite silver falling to around $23 an ounce, and gold going below $1,400, now might be the time to invest in Odyssey Marine Exploration (NASDAQ: OMEX  ) , the treasure-hunting shipwreck finder whose own stock is down by a third from its 52-week high.

That might seem an incongruous comparison, but there's a fairly loose correlation between how Odyssey Marine's stock performs and the price of precious metals. Although the historical value of the sunken ships that the company locates holds some interest, it's really the treasure in the ship's holds that investors seek.

Compare Odyssey's price to that of SPDR Gold Shares and the iShares Silver Trust, and you can see that the three don't necessarily walk lockstep; but they do seem to follow similar patterns.

OMEX Chart

OMEX data by YCharts

Avast, ye mateys!
Yet, sovereign nations remain grasping, and often times, they pirate any gold, silver, or riches that Odyssey and other treasure hunters bring to the surface, increasing the risks to an already risky business.

Last August, Odyssey was forced by U.S. courts to turn over to Spain some $500 million worth of silver and gold coins recovered from the 1804 wreck of the Nuestra Senora de las Mercedes. Despite never determining if Spain ever legally owned the treasure, the courts said that Odyssey was obligated to turn it over to the country. Now Spain is suing Odyssey for more than $32 million in court costs.

Animal, vegetable, mineral
While partnering with nations to salvage shipwrecks helps mitigate the chance that a country will turn on Odyssey and seize the riches found --treasure that likely would have remained sunken were it not for the efforts of the company and other salvagers -- it's become apparent that other avenues of growth are necessary if Odyssey wants to grow.

That's why the treasure hunter has partnered with exploration firms like Chatham Rock Phosphate and Neptune Minerals to recover mineral deposits on the ocean floor. Odyssey has taken equity positions in both companies and has acquired a majority interest in Oceanica, a Panamanian company with exclusive permits to explore potentially mineral-rich regions.

In particular, it will be pursuing three significant seabed minerals: seafloor massive sulphides, or SMS, which contain copper, zinc, gold, and silver; phosphorites for their phosphates; and polymetallic nodules, which consists primarily of manganese and iron.

Sail the seven seas
Because precious metals prices are depressed, and onshore mining companies find themselves in a deep hole, Odyssey's ability to generate profits in the future will be dependent upon its success in recovering and monetizing shipwrecks, and generating income from its new mineral exploration expeditions. 

Relatively recent discoveries like the Gairsoppa and Mantola should allow it to fund future explorations as well as finance its mineral ventures, as well. In fact, Odyssey will be exhibiting the Gairsoppa's silver treasure in New York next month, displaying part of the 48-tons worth of silver it recovered from the ocean floor.

Two for the price of one
Odyssey Marine Exploration may turn out to be not only a unique precious metals play, but also a minerals play that can provide investors with a taste of high seas adventure, to boot. With sovereign financials a shambles, I expect gold and silver prices will recover, suggesting Odyssey's price will, too. And we might one day see deep sea mining as exciting as deep sea drilling is for the oil and gas industry.

This may be one stock you want to put on your watchlist as a bet on a recovery in both of those sectors.

Looking for more commodities-based ideas? Download the free report, The Tiny Gold Stock Digging Up Massive Profits. The Motley Fool's analysts have uncovered a little-known gold miner they believe is poised for greatness; find out which company it is and why its future looks bright -- for free!

Does The Street Have MICROS Systems Figured Out?

MICROS Systems (Nasdaq: MCRS  ) is expected to report Q3 earnings on April 25. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict MICROS Systems's revenues will expand 18.9% and EPS will grow 8.9%.

The average estimate for revenue is $330.7 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.61.

Revenue details
Last quarter, MICROS Systems notched revenue of $324.5 million. GAAP reported sales were 20% higher than the prior-year quarter's $270.4 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.58. GAAP EPS of $0.54 for Q2 were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.47 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 53.0%, 330 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 19.0%, 110 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 13.6%, 60 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $1.31 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.43.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 136 members out of 145 rating the stock outperform, and nine members rating it underperform. Among 44 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 41 give MICROS Systems a green thumbs-up, and three give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on MICROS Systems is outperform, with an average price target of $56.33.

Software and computerized services are being consumed in radically different ways, on new and increasingly mobile devices. Many old leaders will be left behind. Whether or not MICROS Systems makes the coming cut, you should check out the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead the pack in "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add MICROS Systems to My Watchlist.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Electric Vehicles Speed Ahead

Electric vehicles (EVs) are generating a lot of buzz lately. At this week's Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, influential characters repeatedly spoke of the EV revolution with gleeful enthusiasm. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Motor Show is opening up the throttle right this minute, and EVs have a lot to do with it. This is a glittery bandwagon, folks. Jump on?

Who likes EVs and why?
Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, or BNEF, told me that he sees a real opportunity for EVs as we transition to the energy system of the 21st century. David Crane, CEO of NRG Energy, sees EVs as an integral part of the electricity distribution system of the future. Bill Richardson, former U.S. Energy Secretary, declared that EVs are "booming." Rick Geiger, executive director of utilities and smart grid at Cisco Systems, described the electric vehicle battery as the poster child for distributed energy resources. And Daniel Poneman, Acting U.S. Energy Secretary, described EVs as a critical element of electric grid modernization. Phew! That's a whole lotta love.

Here's the critical point: We cannot assess EVs in a vacuum. Honestly, we cannot assess anything in a vacuum, but certainly not anything to do with energy. As our society as a whole deals more directly with the massive challenges before it -- climate change, population growth, water scarcity -- we necessarily embark on a new energy paradigm that lightens our carbon output and improves our resilience to natural disasters. The only way to view the EV is as a part of this complex web. It's about mobility, yes, but it's more about energy.

This is the reason David Crane described EVs and solar -- together -- as catalysts for sustainable developments in grid architecture. Rooftop solar and EVs are both especially centered on the home. The former generates extra energy during peak demand; the latter stores it during off-peak times. They are complementary in managing the stressors on our modern grid.

Who's got nitrous in the tank?
There have been several announcements this week in the EV space. At the BNEF Summit, General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) announced that its Chevrolet Spark EV is setting a new benchmark for efficiency with an EPA-estimated 119 MPGe (miles per gallon gasoline equivalent), and a range of 82 miles. Pam Fletcher, chief engineer of General Motors and so-called "Queen of the Volt," acknowledged the extent to which consumers hold off on EVs because of range anxiety -- the fear that an EV will die far from a charging station -- but said GM had solved this problem with its range-extender technology.

GM's new Spark EV at the BNEF Summit. Photo credit: Sara E. Murphy.

General Motors has some experience in this arena, having launched the Chevy Volt. Fletcher said the Volt represented a step change in consumers' perceptions of what an EV really has to offer. She said that with 100% torque on demand, Volts are fun, and a pleasure to drive. According to GM surveys, 92% percent of Volt owners would buy another Volt.

Fletcher said GM is bringing its Cadillac ELR extended range electric coupe to market at the end of this year. She said the Caddy will employ the same technology as the Volt, taking the best of the Volt's all-electric propulsion with extended range, then wrapping a luxury coupe around it.

Meanwhile, at this year's Shanghai Motor Show, newly re-emerged Detroit Electric announced its partnership with China's Geely Automobile to develop EVs for the Chinese market. Lamentably, I incorrectly predicted that Detroit Electric would be hitching its wagon to BYD. I got that one wrong, but Geely is no less interesting. Geely owns Sweden's Volvo Cars, and recently withdrew as a potential bidder for Fisker Automotive, the failing California green-car start-up. It will be interesting to see if this tie-up gives Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) a run for its money.

Speaking of Tesla, its founder Elon Musk tweeted on Thursday that the company would be announcing a new strategy on Friday. His exact words were, "Announcement of new @TeslaMotors strategy tomorrow. Tesla owners will like this." Wall Street got all twitterpated, and Tesla shares were up more than 3% at Thursday's closing.

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, senior advanced transport analyst at BNEF, said Tesla had built its brand value and customer base by making "cool" cars, irrespective of their EV qualities. Be that as it may, he was enthusiastic about the EV space, in general. He noted that, as we change vehicles' drivetrain, we get more optionality on the fuel side, paving the way for new approaches like Tesla's.

Tesla has a partnership with SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY  )  -- another Elon Musk vehicle -- to provide Tesla drivers with solar-fueled battery-recharging stations. As I said above, EVs are complementary to renewable-energy deployment, particularly solar. In the new energy ecosystem, such partnerships will be critical to ongoing resilience.

Watch the EV space, folks, and consider getting some skin in the game. A lot of smart people think this is just the beginning for a very promising space.

Near-faultless execution has led Tesla Motors to the brink of success, but the road ahead remains a hard one. Despite progress, a looming question remains: Will Tesla be able to fend off its big-name competitors? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available for smart investors like you. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage, and you can gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

What Could Still Go Wrong at Bank of America?

Bank of America reported its first-quarter earnings, and investors were underwhelmed. In this video, Matt Koppenheffer compares Bank of America's performance with Wells Fargo's. By all metrics, Wells Fargo did better. Loan origination, return on equity, and return on assets all favored Wells Fargo. For investors, the only advantage Bank of America offers is that it currently trades at a significant discount to book value, while Wells Fargo trades at a premium. Matt believes Bank of America has to improve its new loan portfolio and other financial metrics in order to stay competitive with Wells Fargo. 

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

 

How GE Brings Good Things to Military Vessels

The Navy League's Sea-Air-Space Exposition is the largest maritime expo in the U.S. and brings together dozens of defense contractors and military decision makers. Our Rex Moore was at the event in National Harbor, Md., and saw demonstrations of several technologies. In the video below, Paul Thompson of General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) shows how his company makes military vessels safer.

Putting together the puzzle
For GE, the recent financial crisis struck a blow, but management took advantage of the market's dip to make strategic bets in energy. If you're a GE investor, you need to understand how these bets could drive this company to become the world's infrastructure leader. At the same time, you need to be aware of the threats to GE's portfolio. To help, we're offering comprehensive coverage for investors in a premium report on General Electric, in which our industrials analyst breaks down GE's multiple businesses. You'll find reasons to buy or sell GE today. To get started, click here now.

Here's How To Profit From The Disconnect In Natural Gas

A rising tide doesn't always lift all boats. The major stock indexes are up 10% or more this year, but as I recently noted, it has been a brutal few months for commodities. But at the time, I saw a small silver lining.

"These are the kinds of commodities you need to keep tracking, because lower prices counterintuitively set the stage for the next bull market in commodities," I wrote, citing iron ore as an example. However, I overlooked an even more glaring example of how slumping commodity prices can impair production, which leads to an eventual pricing rebound.

I'm talking about natural gas, which has been on fire in the past year.

Simply put, in the spring of 2012, few people saw this kind of move coming.

Yet the rebound in natural gas shouldn't have come as a total shock. After all, the number of rigs drilling for natural gas had fallen sharply throughout the end of 2011 and the first half last year, as I noted, and we're now seeing the benefits of reduced supply.

 

The question is: Can the good times last? Yes, they can.

Natural gas prices are likely to consolidate back toward the $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) level during the seasonally weaker spring season (when it's neither too hot nor too cold to generate much demand from utilities). Still, at that price, it's like manna from heaven for energy drillers.

At $2 per Mcf, most drillers lose money, and some would be at risk of defaulting on their debt. At $4 per Mcf, these same drillers can make enough money to generate solid cash flow. Better still, $4 natural gas still isn't high enough for drillers to get carried away and sharply boost their production plans.

The key to this rebound is to be sure that output remains restrained, right at or below the levels of demand. How does the output picture look? The weekly tally of domestic gas rigs in service paints a good picture.

A Healthy Rig Count

Source: Baker Hughes

The fact that the rig count is now below 400 is quite impressive. (I unwisely suggested more than a year ago that the rig count needed to fall to 725 for the industry to find equilibrium between supply and demand, which was clearly off the mark.)

You know that the falling rig count is having an impact by one key measure: For several years, the amount of natural gas in storage depots remained above the five-year average (adjusted for seasonality). Well, the figure is now below average, and Goldman Sachs expects "a further reduction in gas storage vs. the five-year average over the next six months."

The key takeaway: Barring a sudden spike in the number of rigs, $4 gas is here to stay.

Sticking With Ultra
Even as natural gas prices have rebounded, industry share prices haven't moved much. In effect, the crowd still thinks this rebound is a head fake, so people are waiting for gas prices to plunge anew.

Yet that looks unlikely with the drop in output that has resulted from the plunging rig count. In a minute, I'll note some of the current favorite ideas being bandied about by Wall Street analysts.

But first, I'd like to remind investors about one of my colleague Nathan Slaughter's favorite gas plays. Nathan is our in-house natural resources expert, and when he talks, I listen. He's written extensively about his favorite investment opportunities in natural gas, including America's coming natural gas highway and the timely revival of a decades-old technology.

Back in October, Nathan told StreetAuthority Managing Editor Bob Bogda that Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) was one of his top picks. "Ultra is extremely efficient with an "all-in" production cost of $2.88 per Mcf ... (and will) pocket more cash per Mcf than almost any other producer as prices rebound."

Despite his bullish outlook, shares of "Ultra Pete" are actually lower than they were when Bob and Nathan chatted about the company seven months ago. Yet his assessment of the company still appears to be on the mark.

Assuming that gas prices stay at $4 per Mcf, then Ultra appears to be on the cusp of a solid upturn in operating cash flow. Citigroup's analysts see operating cash flow rising nearly 96% to $900 million by 2015.

If gas prices remain stable or even rise, then Ultra will have a chance to sell its prodigious projected output at locked-in prices, ensuring those cash flow targets will be met.

Wall Street's Favorite Plays
It seems as if every Wall Street firm has its own favorite way to play the rebound in natural gas.

Goldman Sachs is partial to Bill Barrett Resources (NYSE: BBG), citing a new management team that is focusing on much better cost controls and higher cash flow. Goldman also is high on Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN), which is sitting on some of the most productive areas of the Marcellus Shale. Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) is a favorite of both Merrill Lynch (due to sharply rising estimates of proven recoverable reserves) and Citigroup (thanks to projected cumulative free cash flow of $1.5 billion from now through 2015).

Risks to Consider: If the subpar temperatures last winter lead to a cooler-than-normal early summer, then gas demand might slump, so keep an eye on long-term weather forecasts if you own any names in this sector.

Action to Take --> Any commodity that doubles in value in just a year would seem to be ripe for a pullback. But the supply and demand fundamentals in the gas patch are markedly better than they were a year ago. More importantly, so many industry players were burned over the past few years by drilling for too much gas that they now understand the importance of restraining their capital budgets.

While gas prices may not move up sharply from here, they are unlikely to fall back, and at current levels, that creates much more favorable economics for gas producers. If you fret that you missed that rally in gas prices, know that there are still ample opportunities with gas producers, as their shares have yet to respond to the commodity's price recovery.

P.S. -- The abundance of natural gas in the U.S. could lead to a third industrial revolution. One analyst is predicting a stock could rise 1,566%. Another stock has already jumped over 1,000% and is expected to keep going. To learn more about investing in the natural gas boom, click here.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Qualcomm the Bearer of Bad News for Apple and BlackBerry

When do record revenues, beating analyst earnings estimates, and generating a 35% jump in operating income result in a 5% drop in share price? The mobile industry's chipmaking and licensing leader Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM  ) can tell you firsthand: Follow up positive financials with a distressing outlook for the established mobile-device market. Not good news for Qualcomm, but its high-end manufacturers, such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) with its new Z10 and Q10 offerings, could really feel the pain.

Quarterly recap
Qualcomm's fiscal Q1 was impressive by most measures, compared with last year's Q1 and sequentially, its own forecasts for the quarter, and analyst expectations. As CEO Dr. Paul Jacobs put it, "We are pleased to announce record quarterly revenues." Jacobs also let investors know Qualcomm was pleased to raise its guidance for the balance of its fiscal year.

On a non-GAAP basis (less one-time expenses and/or income), Qualcomm really hit it out of the park, generating $2.2 billion in net income -- a 32% improvement over the year-ago period -- on a 29% jump in revenues. Qualcomm's free cash flow for the quarter was also up significantly -- 24% versus 2012 to $1.85 billion.

Then, Qualcomm let the other shoe drop.

Did I say that?
For Qualcomm -- and ultimately Apple, BlackBerry, and Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) -- what should have been a red-letter day turned bad, primarily because of its projected shipments of 3G and 4G devices in 2013, and the increasing pricing pressures this year will bring. Qualcomm expects a 15% increase in handset and data device deliveries this year compared with 2012, which sounds great for the industry as a whole. But upon further review, the estimates are good for some, not so good for others.

Qualcomm is not alone in projecting continued growth in the mobile industry in 2013, a recent study by research firm IHS came up with the same conclusion. Unfortunately for Apple and BlackBerry, nearly all the estimated growth in mobile devices is likely to come from emerging markets. Of the 15% growth Qualcomm projects this year, 13% of it will happen in emerging regions including China and Latin America. Japan, Europe, and North America -- the primary targets of high-end phone manufacturers -- will see a paltry 2% improvement in device shipments this year compared with 2012.

The impact
Assuming Qualcomm's device delivery projections are correct, companies offering inexpensive phones -- global sales volume leaders Nokia and Samsung, for example -- will have an edge in these crucial markets. Nokia's latest entry in the mobile-phone sweepstakes is its Asha 210, designed and priced for emerging markets, with built-in social media features, a keyboard, and an estimated $72 cost, without a contract.

Both Apple and BlackBerry have hinted at introducing lower-cost phones, though don't expect either to offer anything close to the Nokia and Samsung alternatives. BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins addressed the question last month, making it clear he has no intention of entering the low-cost phone market, saying, "This is not BlackBerry." Heins went on to say that he is open to addressing pricing concerns with lower-cost devices, recognizing that high-growth areas like India simply aren't going to drop $800 on a Z10, but don't expect a $72 Asha 210-like phone from BlackBerry.

If the rumors are true, and they abound, Apple is walking the same path as BlackBerry: shunning the $99 phone concept, and instead opting for a happy medium between affordable and remaining on the middle to high end of the market.

The concern with inexpensive phones and devices -- and Apple's felt this acutely of late -- is maintaining decent margins selling less expensive units. BlackBerry's 40% operating margin noted in its recent earnings release was a highlight of its quarter. Striking a balance between limiting market share growth and maintaining margins is a conundrum to be sure, but one that needs to be addressed.

Qualcomm's estimates for mobile device shipments in 2013 means Apple and BlackBerry have some serious decisions to make: decisions Nokia's already made, and acted upon.

Nokia's struggled in a world of Apple and Android smartphone dominance. However, Nokia continues to focus on emerging markets and has banked its high-end smartphone future on the next generation of Windows phones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia to help investors decide if the company is a buy or sell. To get started, simply click here now.

Welcome to the Billion-Dollar Club, Netflix

Is Now the Time to Buy Standard Chartered?

LONDON -- I'm always searching for shares that can help ordinary investors like you make money from the stock market.

So right now, I am trawling through the FTSE 100, and giving my verdict on every member of the blue-chip index. Simply put, I'm hoping to pinpoint the very best buying opportunities in today's uncertain market.

Today, I am looking at Standard Chartered  (LSE: STAN  ) (NASDAQOTH: SCBFF  ) to determine whether you should consider buying the shares at 1,635 pence.

I am assessing each company on several ratios:

Price-to-earnings (P/E): Does the share look good value when compared against its competitors?

Price/earnings growth (PEG): Does the share look good value factoring in predicted growth?

Yield: Does the share provide a solid income for investors?

Dividend cover: Is the dividend sustainable?

So let's look at the numbers:

Stock Price 3-yr EPS growth Projected P/E PEG Yield 3-yr dividend growth Dividend cover
Standard Chartered 1,635p 16% 10.1 1.7 3.5% 22% 2.8

The consensus analyst estimate for next year's earnings per share is $2.4 (6% growth) and dividend per share is $0.93 (11% growth).

Trading on a projected P/E of 10.1, Standard Chartered appears much cheaper than its peers in the banks sector, which are currently trading on an average P/E of around 30.

Standard Chartered's P/E and mid-single-digit growth rate give a PEG ratio of around 1.7, which implies the share price is expensive for the near-term earnings growth the firm is expected to produce.

Offering a 3.5% yield, the dividend is about the same as the sector average. However, Standard Chartered has a three-year compounded dividend growth rate of 22%, implying the yield could soon overtake that of its peers.

Indeed, the dividend is just under three times covered, giving Standard Chartered plenty room for further payout growth.

So, now the time to buy Standard Chartered?
As I have written above, Standard Chartered is currently trading at a discount to its peers in the banks sector; however, I believe that the company does not deserve this low valuation.

You see, while the majority of Standard Chartered's peers have been struggling to return to profitability after the credit crisis in 2008, Standard Chartered recently announced that 2012 was its 12th consecutive year of earnings growth -- a record that almost none of its peers can beat.

Furthermore, many City analysts believe that the company's earnings will continue to grow 6% this year, and 10% in 2014.

It appears that the reason for the banks success is the rapid growth in developing markets over the past few years, in particular, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, where Standard Chartered generates around 90% of its income.

Moreover, the bank has plenty of room for further growth, as the International Monetary Fund predicts that economic expansion within Asia, Africa,and the Middle East, will average 5%-8% a year for the next 10 years.

Overall, based on Standard Chartered's future prospects and current discount to sector peers, I feel now looks to be a good time to buy Standard Chartered at 1,635 pence.

More FTSE opportunities
As well as Standard Chartered, I am also positive on the five FTSE shares highlighted within this this exclusive wealth report.

Indeed, all five opportunities offer a mix of robust prospects, illustrious histories, and dependable dividends, and have just been declared by the Fool as "5 Shares You Can Retire On!"

Just click here for the report -- it's free.

In the meantime, please stay tuned for my next verdict on a FTSE 100 share.

Lockheed Wins $45.6 Million to Upgrade the C-5 Galaxy

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT  ) landed a sizable contract award from the U.S. Air Force Thursday, announced as part of the Department of Defense's daily summary of contracts awarded last night.

The contract in question, a $45.6 million modification to an existing contract, instructs Lockheed to perform "Rapid Repair and Response legacy repair" work on Lots 3, 4, and 5 of the C-5 Reliability Enhancement and Re-engining Program (RERP ).

The RERP program aims to modernize the Air Force's fleet of Lockheed C-5 Galaxy transport aircraft by upgrading them with new General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) F138-GE-100 jet engines -- an analog to the CF6-80C2 engines that power Air Force One, as well as many Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) 747 and 767 commercial jets. With better engines, the Air Force hopes to improve the C-5's "mission capability rate" by as much as 20 percentage points to 75%, allowing the planes to spend more time in service, and less time in the repair shop. It is also hoped that the upgraded planes will be able to carry more cargo (in excess of 270,000 pounds) and take off and land on shorter runways (as short as 5,000 feet).

Thursday's contract modification lifts the value of the RERP program for Lockheed to nearly $3.7 billion in total. Lockheed's work on this latest installment of the program should be complete by Oct. 29, 2014.

More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool
With great opportunity comes great responsibility. For Boeing, which operates as a major player in a multi-trillion dollar market, the opportunity is absolutely massive. However, the company's execution problems and emerging competitors have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. In this premium research report, two of The Fool's best industrial industry minds have collaborated to provide investors with the key, must know issues around Boeing. They'll be updating the report as key news hits, so make sure to claim a copy today by clicking here now.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Chart Industries Earnings Up Next

Chart Industries (Nasdaq: GTLS  ) is expected to report Q1 earnings on April 25. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Chart Industries's revenues will increase 32.2% and EPS will increase 39.6%.

The average estimate for revenue is $285.7 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.67.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Chart Industries booked revenue of $303.9 million. GAAP reported sales were 38% higher than the prior-year quarter's $219.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.80. GAAP EPS of $0.68 for Q4 were 143% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.28 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 29.1%, 70 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 11.8%, 200 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.8%, 300 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $1.23 billion. The average EPS estimate is $3.23.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 387 members out of 401 rating the stock outperform, and 14 members rating it underperform. Among 66 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 63 give Chart Industries a green thumbs-up, and three give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Chart Industries is outperform, with an average price target of $79.08.

The rich are different than you and me: They might not notice the moneymaking stories right under our noses. In our new report, "Middle-Class Millionaire-Makers: 3 Stocks Wall Street's Too Rich to Notice," we give you three Peter Lynch-inspired buy-what-you-know stocks for the 99%. Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add Chart Industries to My Watchlist.

Why Stamps.com Shares Soared

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of online postage provider Stamps.com (NASDAQ: STMP  ) surged 24% today after its quarterly results and guidance.

So what: The stock has slumped a bit in 2013 on concerns over slowing growth, but today's first-quarter results -- adjusted EPS spiked 38% on a 13.5% revenue increase -- and upbeat full-year guidance naturally eases some of those worries. In fact, Stamps.com hit its highest level of total paid customers -- and added its largest number of new paid customers -- during the quarter, giving investors plenty of good vibes about the company's prospects going forward.

Now what: Management now sees full-year adjusted EPS of $1.95-$2.15 on revenue of $125 million $135 million, nicely above its prior view of $1.75-$1.95, and $120 million-$130 million. "[I]n summary, our Core PC Postage business model of recurring revenue and high gross mergers is demonstrating continued growth and operating margin expansion," . "We are seeing record setting performances across many of our financial and key customer metrics." With the stock blasting through its 52-week high today, and trading at a still-lofty price-to-sales of 3.5, however, I'd wait for some of the excitement to fade before buying into that bull talk.

Interested in more info on Stamps.com? Add it to your watchlist.

Why I Just Bought More Under Armour Stock

I've made no secret of my fondness for apparel specialist Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) over the past few years.

In fact, since I opened an outperform CAPScall on the stock at a split-adjusted $14.76 per share in January 2010, I've joyously watched it outperform the S&P 500 by more than 240% as of this writing.

UA Chart

UA data by YCharts.

Luckily, I had the conviction at the time to put my money where my mouth is, so the investment has also afforded me similar returns in my real-life portfolio.

Even so, and despite the huge run-up, I decided last week to add even more to my real-life position in Under Armour. 

Why now?
Don't get me wrong. In keeping with Foolish investment philosophies, I never buy a stock simply because it's gone up (or down, for that matter). After all, buying in an effort to catch that next exciting leg up can be a perfect recipe for disaster.

That said, truly great companies have a habit of setting new highs on a regular basis and, over the long-term, I expect Under Armour will prove one of those great companies. In fact, considering that The Motley Fool recently ranked Under Armour 10th in its list of the 25 best companies in America, it's safe to say many of my colleagues agree.

That's also one of the reasons I singled out Under Armour in February as one of three great stocks any investor could be happy to hold for the next 50 years. And yes, you read that right. Not five. Not 15.

Fifty.

A world of opportunity
Now I'm a relatively young fellow, but I should be a couple decades into retirement 50 years from now.

So what makes Under Armour so special? As I've noted before, Under Armour currently reigns in the performance apparel market it created, and the segment was still responsible for 76% of its $1.83 billion in 2012 sales. As a result, Under Armour is intelligently working to seize opportunities to diversify by branching out from its roots.

For one thing, Under Armour is aggressively expanding its presence in the athletic footwear market, for which the company saw its revenue increase 43% year over year in 2012 to $45 million. Rest assured, however, that Under Armour still has more than enough room to grow; according to recent research, the athletic footwear market is expected to reach nearly $85 billion globally by 2018 from $74 billion in 2011.

The catch? Footwear is obviously a crowded market, and behemoth competitors like Adidas (NASDAQOTH: ADDYY  ) and Nike (NYSE: NKE  ) have a lot to lose to bold up-and-comers like Under Armour. Heck, Under Armour even had to sue Nike recently after the larger company went so far as to release ad campaigns that appeared to blatantly copy some of UA's trademarked phrases.

Powering forward
In spite of the fierce competition, however, Under Armour has continued to forge ahead. Not only did its most recent quarter mark 13 consecutive quarters of 20% year-over-year net apparel sales growth, but also 11 consecutive quarters of achieving at least 20% overall net revenue growth.

If that weren't enough, consider that Under Armour has achieved nearly all this growth while its international revenue still only accounted for just 7% of total sales last quarter. When Under Armour starts focusing more on international growth, then, it's safe to say it should have little trouble maintaining its stated goals of at least 20% sales growth for the foreseeable future.

Foolish final thoughts
And that, my fellow Fools, is why I'm not particularly concerned about whether the last few years' meteoric rise in Under Armour's stock is sustainable. A few decades from now, I'm convinced investors will look back and wonder why they didn't buy Under Armour when it was just getting started.

More expert advice from The Motley Fool
If you're looking for another promising apparel stock, lululemon athletica has the potential to grow its sales by 10 times if it can penetrate its other markets like it has in Canada, but the competitive landscape is starting to increase. Can Lululemon fight off larger retailers and ultimately deliver huge profits for savvy investors? The Motley Fool answers these questions and more in its most in-depth Lululemon research available. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage; gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

Will Zynga Post an Earnings Win?

On Wednesday, Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. 

Zynga captured the attention of investors when it went public back in late 2011, as the popularity of social gaming led many to see great things for the company. Since the IPO, though, the game maker's shares have plunged, leaving many to wonder whether the company really has an edge over its rising competitors in the social-gaming space. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Zynga over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its report.

Stats on Zynga

Analyst EPS Estimate

($0.04)

Year-Ago EPS

$0.06

Revenue Estimate

$209.8 million

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

(36%)

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

2

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Will Zynga score higher this quarter?
In recent months, analysts have registered their skepticism about Zynga's earnings prospects, quadrupling their loss estimates for the just-ended quarter and going from an expected profit to a larger loss for the full 2013 year. The stock has bounced off much more severe lows, however, jumping nearly 25% since mid-January.

Zynga has been undergoing a huge transformation since it changed its partnership with Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) . What Zynga found is that even though its casual games built up a big mass of players, it was hard to make money from them. Moreover, Facebook had huge leverage over Zynga, as Facebook generated just over 10% of its revenue from Zynga early last year, while Zynga relied on Facebook for over 90% of its sales before beginning its transition.

The big news for Zynga recently was the culmination of its long-term vision to offer real-money games. Yet the full impact of the move will have to wait until the legalization of online gambling in the U.S. gains more clarity. As Fool contributor Michael Lewis estimated recently, even 10% penetration of their current Zynga Poker users into real-money gaming could produce $300 million in annual revenue -- a big bump in pushing the company toward profitability.

The real question is whether Zynga can hold off experienced casino operators if online gambling becomes a reality. Already, alliances are forming, with Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) having linked up with bwin.party -- the same company Zynga tapped for its real-money Zynga Poker -- to help Boyd take advantage of newly legal online gambling in New Jersey. Zynga has the obvious edge with its social savvy, but established casino companies will have huge incentives to defend their turf if Zynga starts to make a serious dent in the industry.

In Zynga's quarterly report, watch especially for the impact of its new What's the Phrase knockoff of Wheel of Fortune. The hit should give some insight into Zynga's ability to keep profiting from free games. If it can't monetize even popular new games, then the company may make even more dramatic strategic shifts in the future.

Learn more about whether online gambling is the key to Zynga's future by reading our premium research report on the social-gaming giant. Don't even think about picking up shares before you read what our top analysts have to say about Zynga. Click here to access your copy.

Click here to add Zynga to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Will Coal Fuel This Company's Earnings?

Why Heckmann Is Poised to Outperform

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, wastewater disposal specialist Heckmann (NYSE: HEK  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Heckmann and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Heckmann facts

Headquarters (founded)

Coraopolis, Pa. (2007)

Market Cap

$1.0 billion

Industry

Oil and gas equipment and services

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$352.0 million

Management

CEO Mark Johnsurd (since 2012)

CFO Jay Parkinson (since 2012)

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

(1%)

Cash/Debt

$16.2 million / $566.1 million

Competitors

Basic Energy Services

Key Energy Services

Schlumberger

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 97% of the 552 members who have rated Heckmann believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.   

Just yesterday, one of those Fools, Googlespooch, succinctly summed up the Heckmann bull case for our community:

With fracking on the rise, it should seem that the US government will not block its continuation. I say this because it would be one of the most disastrous policy decisions in a long time if the government really did block fracking. Despite this, however, it is important to consider that fracking is still ecologically damaging. It produces filthy water, damaged soil layers, etc. It should seem, then, that the EPA may begin to require more of the fracking companies in terms of environmental regulation. Enter [Heckmann]! [Heckmann] already recycles fracking water in addition to a few other services that the company provides. Were the EPA to bring in increased environmental regulation, it should not seem farfetched to consider Hekkman as a big winner considering water treatment would be one of the top regulation targets. With established infrastructure and know-how, Hekkman would be poised to handle EPA regulations very well.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, Heckmann may not be your top choice.

We've found another stock we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Webster Financial Raises Quarterly Dividend 50%

Business and consumer banking concern Webster Financial  (NYSE: WBS  )  announced yesterday that its board of directors has approved increasing its quarterly dividend by 50%, from $0.10 per share to $0.15 per share. The new, higher payment will be made on May 20 to stockholders of record as of May 6.

Webster also declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $21.25 per share on its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, payable on June 17 to shareholders of record on June 1. On its Series E preferred stock, Webster declared a quarterly cash dividend of $400.00 per share, or $0.40 per each depositary share, 1,000 of which represent one share of Series E preferred stock. It will also be payable on June 17 to shareholders of record on June 1.

Webster Financial CEO James C. Smith cited "growth and quality of earnings and Webster's strong capital base."

Webster provides business and consumer banking, mortgages, financial planning, trust and investment services through 168 banking offices and has $20 billion in assets. The chart below does not include this week's dividend announcement.

WBSPRE Dividend Chart

WBSPRE Dividend data by YCharts.

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Checks Being Sent to Boat Owner Who Found Dzhokhar Tsarnaev

WATERTOWN, MA - APRIL 20: Investigators work around the boat where Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev was found hiding after a massive manhunt, in the backyard of a Franklin Street home, in an aerial view April 20, 2013 in Watertown, Massachusetts. A manhunt for Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, 19, a suspect in the Boston Marathon bombing ended after he was apprehended on a boat parked on a residential property in Watertown, Massachusetts. His brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, the other suspect, was shot and killed after a car chase and shootout with police. The bombing, on April 15 at the finish line of the marathon, killed three people and wounded at least 170. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)Getty Images

America wants to help David Henneberry get a new boat.

The Watertown, Mass., resident became a hero when he discovered suspected Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev hiding in his backyard boat.

Henneberry quickly called the cops and in a final standoff, his boat was riddled with bullet holes.

"That boat's his baby. He takes care of it like you wouldn't believe. And they told him it's all shot up," Henneberry's friend and neighbor George Pizzuto told ABC News. "He's going to be heartbroken."

Today, people around the country want to make help mend that broken heart.

Deborah Newberry, 62, of Orlando, Fla., has already put a $25 check in the mail to Henneberry's home.

"Something told him to go and check things," Newberry told ABCNews.com. "I just want him to know that people care about him because I know he's probably the guy that would say, 'Well, that's okay.' But I just would like him to know that we're all thinking about him and appreciate his spirit."

She believes Henneberry had to be "awfully, awfully cool" to emerge from a daylong lockdown, notice something wrong with his boat, find a bloody man in it and slip away to call police.

"Just listening to his coolness and how he handled the situation, it was like okay, that is a man who needs to have his boat restored," Newberry said.

When asked if she sent Henneberry any note with the check Newberry said no, she simply wrote, "towards a new boat" on the check.

"He don't know me from Joe Turkey," she said with a laugh. "I want him to go back to his regular little things that he do and don't have to worry about having a boat." WATERTOWN - APRIL 20: An aerial view of the boat where Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev was found hiding after a massive manhunt is seen in the backyard of a Franklin Street home April 20, 2013 in Watertown, Massachusetts. Tsarnaev was taken into custody after a daylong manhunt that began when he and his brother, and co-conspirator in the Boston Marathon bombing, killed a Massachusetts Institute Of Technology police officer and wounded another in Cambidge. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev then car jacked a vehicle and fled into Watertown where another shootout accurred. Tsarnaev's brother Tamerlan was killed in the Cambridge shootout. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***Getty Images
Florida lawyer John Phillips felt the same way.

"[The boat] is fairly insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but that's what's significant to him," Phillips told ABCNews.com of the bullet-riddled boat. "If that's what the guy's passion is, I have no problem whatsoever chipping in and helping out."

Phillips, 38, is a personal injury attorney in Jacksonville, Fla. He wants to send Henneberry $1,000 for a new boat since he predicts the boat will be held as evidence for some time.

"He just had his boat shot up and had a terrorist live in it for a day," Phillips said. "If the dude wants an upgraded boat, let's get the guy a boat without terrorist blood in it."

Watertown Police Chief Edward Deveau has been inundated with messages of gratitude and praise as well as requests from people who want to know how they can get a Watertown Police T-shirt.

"I'm getting emails and things from all over the world," Deveau told ABC News. "I got an email this morning. Some person in Detroit, Michigan, who wants to replace the boat for the Watertown resident that got shot up. I mean, it's just incredible."

People on Twitter are echoing the calls to help Henneberry, hailing him a hero.

"Bravo, David Henneberry! You are a true American hero. I say we all pitch in and buy you a new boat. #welldeserved," one person tweeted.

Another wrote, "Some boat company needs to hook David Henneberry up with a new boat. His has a few holes in it. Holey #boats don't float."

Henneberry's boat is reportedly a 22-foot Seahawk cruiser with a fiberglass hull, which retails for around $50,000.

He did not return ABC News' request for a comment.

"It took more than the police department to get it done and that's the American spirit to me," Phillips said. "It's one random guy and one random boat ironically in a town named Watertown that's supposedly landlocked. Truth is stranger than fiction. You couldn't write this stuff and be believable."

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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Should I Invest in Aggreko?

To me, capital growth and dividend income are equally important. Together, they provide the total return from any share investment and, as you might expect, my aim is to invest in companies that can beat the total return delivered by the wider market.

To put that aim into perspective, the FTSE 100 has provided investors with a total return of around 3% per annum since January 2008.

Quality and value
If my investments are to outperform, I need to back companies that score well on several quality indicators and buy at prices that offer decent value.

So this series aims to identify appealing FTSE 100 investment opportunities and today I'm looking at Aggreko  (LSE: AGK  ) , the power generation and temperature control equipment rental company.

With the shares at 1775 pence, Aggreko's market cap. is £4,776 million.

This table summarizes the firm's recent financial record:

Year to December

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Revenue (£m)

947

1,024

1,230

1,396

1,583

Net cash from operations (£m)

237

371

389

403

373

Adjusted earnings per share

46.16p

63.3p

79.37p

87.14p

100.67p

Dividend per share

10.08p

12.6p

18.9p

20.79p

23.91p

Aggreko's directors are expecting trading during 2013 to be tougher than that experienced last year. There'll be no London Olympics contract to bolster earnings, and military-sourced revenues will fall due to U.S. troop reductions in Afghanistan. Business is also likely to decline from Japan and, taken together, such issues are likely to wipe about £100 million from 2013's top line.

Longer term the firm points to a weakening growth trend in emerging markets as a reason to be cautious. But the new trading year has started well with an 8% rise in underlying revenue, although that growth rate is unlikely to offset fully the decline from last year's strong comparative result.

Despite the director's caution for this year, Aggreko has a market-leading global presence that should drive investor total returns in the longer run. Some might see current share-price weakness as a buying opportunity despite the generous-looking price-earnings multiple, but I'm inclined to hold back.

Aggreko's total-return potential
Let's examine five indicators to help judge the quality of the company's total-return potential:

Dividend cover: Adjusted earnings covered last year's dividend about 4.2 times. 5/5 Borrowings: net gearing is around 57% with net debt about 1.5 times operating profit. 3/5 Growth: growing revenue and earnings are well supported by flat cash flow. 4/5 Price to earnings: a forward 18 or so looks ahead of growth and yield forecasts. 2/5 Outlook: satisfactory recent trading and a cautious outlook. 3/5

Overall, I score Aggreko 17 out of 25, which makes me a little cautious about the firm's potential to out-pace the wider market's total return, at least in the short term.

Foolish summary
A well-covered dividend, under-control borrowings, and a decent record of growth head the list of the shares attractions. The short-term outlook is cautious, but the valuation suggests that investors think the long-term growth trend remains intact.

I'm going to watch Aggreko for now, but a growth story that one of the Fool's top investment writers has uncovered tempts me. He has put his money where his mouth is by investing and believes the share is the "Motley Fool's Top Growth Share for 2013". In this new Fool report, you can discover how the firm has reenvisioned itself to allow for tremendous growth along new horizons. Right now, the report is free to download and tells you exactly why our expert has invested in, and expects strong growth from, this changing company with a strong pedigree. To get your copy, click here.

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Bank of America Should Be More Like Netflix

After rubbing customers the wrong way with proposed changes and subsequently backing off those changes, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) appears to be back in good graces with its customer base. On the other hand, a recent survey of bank customer satisfaction highlighted Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC  ) continued struggles with sufficiently serving its customers.

Despite the clear and vast differences between these two companies, Bank of America can learn from the steps Netflix took after it enraged customers. Netflix focused on tailoring its customer experience to the needs and wants of its target market by pouring more resources into the streaming business and creating original content. 

Bank of America may need to focus on its customers' experience by continuing to develop new and innovative payment solutions and other proprietary technologies.

In this video, Motley Fool financial analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer discuss Bank of America's ability to excel in this area. 

Despite a few hiccuips, Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

This Could Be The Top Turnaround Stock Of 2013

Turnaround stocks are immensely popular with investors for two reasons.

The first is that most people have a natural affinity to root for an underdog. The second and more important reason is that these stocks have the ability to produce outsized, market-beating gains.

Take Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), for example. The company's share price was crushed at the end of 2011, falling nearly 79% to a multi-year low of $54 in the fall of 2012. But Netflix was quick to react to concerns about its earnings power. The result was phenomenal, with shares surging more than 140% in just the past six months. Take a look at the gain below.

But if you missed those big gains in Netflix, don't worry -- because history could soon be repeating itself.

Much like Netflix, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR) was a high-flier gone horribly wrong. After skyrocketing more than 2,000% from October 2008 to September 2011, shares proceeded to lose more than 80%, crashing to below $20 in the following 12 months.

The plunge was driven by concerns related to the company's expiring patents on its popular Keurig coffee-brewing machine and K-Cup single-brew packets. But a little more than a year after the big crash, those concerns are now looking misplaced, with Green Mountain aggressively defending its product and market position.

The biggest threat to the Keurig was expected to come from Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) with the introduction of its Verismo home-brewing machine. However, the Verismo has had little effect on the Keurig's sales growth.

 

In the fourth quarter of 2012, Green Mountain sold 4.95 million Keurig machines, up 18% from last year, while Starbucks reported sales of just 150,000 Verismo machines. Green Mountain's results are being driven by the company's continued emphasis on product enhancements, strategic partnerships and discounted models to reach a wider audience.

Green Mountain has also been focused on defending its leading position in the highly profitable K-Cup market. To combat the threat of competition from new vendors, Green Mountain has entered strategic partnerships with competitors such as Starbucks, Dunkin' Donuts parent Dunkin' Brands (Nasdaq: DNKN) and Eight O'Clock Coffee to offer their signature drinks through K-Cups and Vue packs.

In January, Green Mountain became the exclusive manufacturer of Costco's (Nasdaq: COST) Kirkland Signature brand K-Cup packs for the Keurig system. In March, Green Mountain inked a deal with Unilever (NYSE: UN) to distribute Lipton's products in K-Cup and Vue packs. Green Mountain also has a deal with Dr Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE: DPS) to sell its iced-tea products in K-Cups and Vue packs this summer.

 When you add together these strategic partnerships, it's obvious that Green Mountain is positioned not only to defend its leading status, but to extend it.

However, Green Mountain isn't focused exclusively on revenue. The company is also committed to expanding its margins and has said it will reduce its workforce by 2% this May. Green Mountain is also working closely with coffee farmers to expand crop yields with a soil-enhancement technique using biochar, a special type of charcoal that the company says will boost earnings this year.

Analysts are expecting earnings growth of 14% in 2014 and annual earnings growth of 20% in the next five years. That has shares of Green Mountain trading with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 19, a sharp discount to its 10-year average of 31.

Risks to Consider: Shares of Green Mountain have already been rallying from the good news, up a market-beating 26% in 2013. Even though the valuation looks great, those short-term gains could trigger profit-taking and pressure shares.

Action to Take --> Green Mountain was an epic high-flier before its fall from grace. But the company is rebounding aggressively to increase its market share. Green Mountain is also facing less competitive pressure on its home-brewing products than expected. If the company traded with its average forward P/E of 31 in the past 10 years, shares would jump 63% from current levels to $88.


Monday, April 22, 2013

Facebook Is Betting Everything on "Home"

Despite privacy concerns, Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) plans to send ads directly to phones via the new "Home" app.

Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg defended the practice, saying in interviews that mobile devices are effectively like TV. She calls it a "mass medium" that the social network hopes to monetize with more relevant pitches than we see in the average TV broadcast.

Facebook already tops Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) as the leading supplier of mobile display ads, followed by Pandora (NYSE: P  ) . But that may not last, says Tim Beyers of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Supernova in the following interview with The Motley Fool's Erin Miller.

Research firm eMarketer predicts that Google will take the top spot come 2015. "Home" is Facebook's effort to stay ahead. A twin bet on both leaders is the most likely payoff for investors, Tim says.

Do you think Facebook can win in the war for mobile ad market share? Please watch this short video to get Tim's full take, and then leave a comment to let us know whether you'd buy, sell, or short Facebook stock now, and why.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.