Friday, November 30, 2012

Dreamworks Shares Draggin’ On Weak Box Office For “Dragon” (Updated)

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) shares are getting clobbered this morning after a disappointing opening weekend for the film How To Train Your Dragon.

The film took in $43 million in domestic opening week box office receipts; Janney Capital analyst Tony Wible notes that this is well short of his forecast for more than $65 million in ticket sales. He and other analysts say the film seems to have been hurt by current competition from Alice in Wonderland, and the pending release of Clash of the Titans next week. Wible estimates the movie’s eventual total domestic gross at $152 million, well below his old forecast of $250 million.

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Benjamin Mogil likewise found the early results from the movie disappointing, and sliced his price target on DWA shares to $44, from $47, though he keeps his Overweight rating, and says the more critical release for the company is Shrek 4, which is due later this year.

Cowen’s Doug Creutz says worldwide box office for the move is now likely to be in the low $400 million range, or about $120 million below his forecast. While he did not formally cut his estimates, he writes that 2010 EPS could be about $2.05, below is old forecast of $2.51.

DWA is down $3.70, or 8.6%, to $39.11.

Update: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen this morning downgraded DWA to Underperform from Buy, citing the weak results for the movie over the weekend. “Despite mostly positive reviews, competition from other 3D titles, a limited 3D footprint and recent price increases may have all contributed to Dragon’s poor opening,” she writes. Her new price target is $40.

RIM: Remember, They’re Still Profitable, Says Morgan Keegan

As analysts continue to asses Research in Motion’s (RIMM) fiscal Q3 warning and PlayBook tablet computer price chopping announcement this morning, and some warn of more downside, others are pointing to the fact the company is still profitable — for the moment.

RIM made $6.34 per share last year, though it will clearly be much less than that this year, somewhere between $4 and $5, a drop of perhaps 30% to 40% in earnings.

Tavis McCourt with Morgan Keegan is a little more upbeat than most on this matter.

Today he reiterates a Market Perform rating, while lowering his price target to $18 from $19.

$18 is, in fact, what he expects book value for the company to be in a year’s time, given that earnings are declining. However, with 14 million units sold last quarter, the company still has “a long way to go” before they become unprofitable, even though the shares are now trading as “in liquidation.”

“We estimate that RIM need only sell ~4 mm handsets/quarter to break even,” writes McCourt, “although long term, a sub base of 45mm+ and shipments of 7mm+/qtr is needed for viability at the current cost structure (in our opinion).”

McCourt cut his 2012 EPS view to $4.24 from a prior $4.42, and cut his 2013 view to $3.35 from a prior $3.56.

Update: In a similarly charitable note, ThinkEquity’s Mark McKechnie, who rates RIMM Market Perform, offers that the company’s network operations center, or NOC, which delivers service to more than 70 million subscribers, has value, though a dwindling value.

“We view RIMM’s NOC as a declining asset should it remain closed to RIMM hardware but could be stabilized should they open it to Apple, Android and Windows Phones,” he writes. McKechnie thinks RIM is, in fact, working on opening up the NOC, perhaps by the time it rolls out its BlackBerry devices based on “QNX” software. How much cooperation it will require, and will receive, from those competitors is unclear, he writes.

“We believe the assets could prove strategic to Amazon.com (AMZN), which has recently entered the tablet market but has no IP, or MSFT which also has limited IP and could benefit from RIMM’s strategic BES server/ NOC platform.”

Moreover, the company’s “Fusion” software for device management, announced this week, is not the answer, as it does not offer “the full-featured push e-mail functionality of the Blackberry platform.”

McKechnie cut his price target to $18 from $23, and cut his EPS outlook for this year to $4.27 from $4.50.

Implications Of A Summer Drought

Many will suspect that higher corn and soybean prices will translate into higher farm income, but the situation is more complicated. There is an analogy here with the price of consumer goods and imports. It turns out that for some imported products, more than half of the cost to the US consumer does not come from the importation of the item, but the locally incurred costs related to storage, shipment and marketing. The same is true of farmers and food prices.

The USDA estimates that only about 16 cents of each dollar spent on food goes to farmers. The rest goes to labor, packing, transportation and advertisement. Food processors, who turn crops into cereals and oil and other products get about 32 cents from the dollar spent on food. Food service companies get about 47 cents of each dollar spent on food.

Farmers, according to reports, get about 7% of the retail price for cereals and baked goods. Dairy and cattle farmers do a bit better, getting 37% of the retail price of butter and 46% of the price of milk, a little more than 50% of the retail beef price and about a third of the price of pork.

In addition, US agricultural production is also energy intensive (from fertilizer and pesticides to farm equipment and transportation). About 3.5% of the money spent on food goes to energy. Since the end of June, WTI is up almost 20%.

Food and beverages (many use corn in some form for sweetener) typically account for 15% of the typical American consumption. The Federal Reserve tends to give more weight to the measures of inflation that exclude the price of food and energy. However, the rise of food and energy prices will cut into the purchasing power of households. As we saw earlier this week, with the poor retail sales report, that the US consumer was vulnerable even prior to the latest increase in food prices and the recovery in energy prices.

Other countries, especially among the emerging markets, typically have a greater weight for foodstuff in their inflation measures and typically look at headline instead of core inflation measures. Previously, the price environment seemed more benign. Facing global headwinds and higher food and energy prices makes rate decisions more difficult to many.

The US main agriculture region is experiencing the worst drought in more than half a century. Corn and soybean prices are being driven through the 2007-2008 highs to new record levels. The latest US Department of Agriculture estimates that 31% of the corn crop is in good to excellent condition compared with 40% a week ago. The soybean crop is not faring much better with 34% of the crop considered good to excellent compared with 40% previously.

The USDA publishes new food price forecasts on the 25th of each month. There is not a prize for guessing the direction of prices in next week's report. In June when corn was under $6 (now above $8) a bushel, the USDA expected a 2.5-3.5% increase in food prices, after about 4.8% increase last year and a 2.8% average annual increase over the past 20 years.

Many consumers and investors do not fully appreciate the extent to which the modern economy is based on corn. It is not simply used as a substitute for gasoline and animal feed, but reports indicate a full three quarters of the products in a supermarket use corn in some form.

The roughly 50% increase in corn prices translates to a 1% rise in shopping bills according to economists at the USDA. The effect on specific food prices vary. It takes, for example, about 2.6 pound of corn to produce a pound of beef. That means that the increase in corn prices may see a 4-5% increase in beef prices. The increase in the price of corn (chicken feed) will boost egg prices 1-2% and a 2-3% increase in dairy prices.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Yamana Gold Beats on EPS, but GAAP Results Lag

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY  ) reported earnings on Feb. 23. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Yamana Gold missed estimates on revenue and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded and GAAP earnings per share shrank significantly.

Gross margin increased, operating margin grew, and net margin dropped.

Revenue details
Yamana Gold booked revenue of $568.8 million. The five analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $612.8 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 6.3% higher than the prior-year quarter's $535.1 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.25. The 11 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.24 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS of $0.12 for Q4 were 45% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.22 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 68.6%, 190 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 44.5%, 370 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 15.8%, 1,420 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $624.2 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.25.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $2.62 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.27.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 3,707 members out of 3,841 rating the stock outperform, and 134 members rating it underperform. Among 886 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 862 give Yamana Gold a green thumbs-up, and 24 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Yamana Gold is outperform, with an average price target of $19.60.

Worried about inflation? Interested in gold? Find out the best way to profit in both scenarios a little-known company we profile in, "The Tiny Gold Stock Digging Up Massive Profits." Click here for instant access to this free report.

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Top Stocks For 2011-12-5-8

Agreement with Prestigious European Cancer Center Marks Beginning of European Commercialization

NEW YORK , Nov. 21, 2011 (CRWENewswire) — Delcath Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:DCTH) announced today that the Company has entered into an initial launch and training agreement for the Delcath Hepatic CHEMOSAT� Delivery system with the European Institute of Oncology (Instituto Europeo di Oncologia—IEO), a premier European cancer treatment and research center located in Milan, Italy . Under the terms of the agreement, the Company will provide the IEO with logistics and clinical training support in the performance of chemosaturation therapy using the CHEMOSAT system. The Company expects to conduct the training using the Generation Two version of the CHEMOSAT system, pending CE Mark approval. Training at the IEO is expected to begin in January 2012 and upon completion, the IEO will be among the first cancer centers to commercially utilize the CHEMOSAT system to treat patients in the European Union.

Dr. Alessandro Testori , a surgical oncologist and Director of the Division of Melanoma and Skin-Muscle Sarcoma at the IEO, said, “Our team is excited to be among the first cancer centers in Europe to begin using the CHEMOSAT system. The significant clinical research demonstrates a clear benefit to patients with melanoma liver metastases and potentially other tumor-types as well. We’re eager to begin providing therapy to our patients suffering from melanoma and other metastases in the liver and exploring the potential that the newest generation product from Delcath provides.”

“This agreement represents a major milestone in the development of our CHEMOSAT system, and marks the beginning of commercialization in the European Union,” said Eamonn P. Hobbs , President & CEO of Delcath Systems. “After years of clinical research and development, CHEMOSAT will soon be available to patients. We’re pleased that our first launch and training agreement is with such a prestigious institution as the IEO, one of Europe ’s premier cancer treatment and research facilities. We expect to announce similar agreements with other major cancer centers in Europe in the near future, which will position us well to begin realizing the potential of the CHEMOSAT system in 2012.”

About the IEO

The European Institute of Oncology was established in 1994 to implement an innovative model for health and advanced research in the international oncology field. The IEO’s mission is focused on state-of-the-art cancer research and treatment, from basic laboratory research that grapples with the genetic roots of cancer, to advanced clinical research such as testing new drugs, all with the unifying goal of finding ways to treat patients more effectively.

About Delcath Systems

Delcath Systems, Inc. is a development stage specialty pharmaceutical and medical device company focused on oncology. Delcath’s proprietary system for chemosaturation is designed to administer high dose chemotherapy and other therapeutic agents to diseased organs or regions of the body, while controlling the systemic exposure of those agents. The Company’s initial focus is on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers. In 2010, Delcath concluded a Phase III metastatic melanoma study, and the Company recently completed a multi-arm Phase II trial to treat other liver cancers. The Company obtained authorization to affix a CE Mark for the Hepatic CHEMOSAT delivery system in April 2011 . The Company has not yet received FDA approval for commercial sale of its system in the United States . For more information, please visit the Company’s website at http://www.delcath.com/.

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements made by the Company or on its behalf. This news release contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from those described. Factors that may cause such differences include, but are not limited to, uncertainties relating to the future use and adoption of the CHEMOSAT system by the European Institute of Oncology, uncertainties relating to future initial launch and training agreements with other cancer centers in Europe , CE Marking for the Generation Two system and the timing of our commercial launch in Europe , the time required to build inventory and establish commercial operations in Europe , adoption, use and resulting sales, if any, for the Hepatic CHEMOSAT delivery system in the EEA, our ability to successfully commercialize the chemosaturation system and the potential of the chemosaturation system as a treatment for patients with terminal metastatic disease in the liver, acceptability of the Phase III clinical trial data by the FDA, our ability to address the issues raised in the Refusal to File letter received from the FDA and the timing of our re-submission of our NDA, re-submission and acceptance of the Company’s NDA by the FDA, approval of the Company’s NDA for the treatment of metastatic melanoma to the liver, adoption, use and resulting sales, if any, in the United States , approval of the current or future chemosaturation system for other indications, actions by the FDA or other foreign regulatory agencies, our ability to obtain reimbursement for the CHEMOSAT system, our ability to successfully enter into distribution and strategic partnership agreements in foreign markets and the corresponding revenue associated with such foreign markets, uncertainties relating to the results of research and development projects and future clinical trials, and uncertainties regarding our ability to obtain financial and other resources for any research, development and commercialization activities. These factors, and others, are discussed from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date they are made.

Contact Information:

Investor Contact:
Doug Sherk/Gregory Gin
EVC Group
415-568-4887/646-445-4801

Media Contact:
Janine McCargo
EVC Group
646-688-0425

Source: Delcath Systems, Inc.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

Top 10 Undervalued Stocks With Large Cash Cushions

Analyst target prices can be very useful guides for investors. The target price is a price level set by analysts that, based on their data and estimates, represents their predictions for that company in the upcoming year.

When a company's current market price is deeply lagging to the target price, it may signal that the company has more value to price in (meaning, the stock price may rise).

We wanted to explore this idea by forming a universe of companies that are currently undervalued to target price. And because analysts often have different opinions, and tend to be overly optimistic, we use the lowest analyst target price.

Large cash cushions
To narrow down the list of undervalued companies we looked for companies with enough cash to cover several quarters of operating expenses. After all, large cash holdings implies a company is better prepared to weather shifts in the market or even a more severe finical storm that would cripple them otherwise.

For our list we took only the companies with cash holdings that exceed 4 times the average quarterly operating expense. In other words, all of these companies could operate for more than four quarters without generating any revenue.

The list
Do you think these undervalued stocks can withstand market volatility? Do you think they have the potential to reach their target price?

Use this list as a starting-off point for your own analysis. (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)

List compiled by Eben Esterhuizen, CFA:

1. Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARIA  ) : Focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of small-molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer. Of the 10 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 14, which implies an upside of 33.08% from current levels around 10.52. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $21.44M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $86.32M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 4.03.

2. Achillion Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACHN  ) : Engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of treatments for infectious diseases. Of the 11 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 7, which implies an upside of 31.58% from current levels around 5.32. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $9.54M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $65.14M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 6.83.

3. InfoSpace (Nasdaq: INSP  ) : Develops search tools and technologies that assist consumers with finding content and information on the Internet. Of the 5 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 11, which implies an upside of 27.31% from current levels around 8.64. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $48.19M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $279.27M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 5.8.

4. Pacific Biosciences of California (Nasdaq: PACB  ) : Develops, manufactures, and markets an integrated platform for genetic analysis. Of the 5 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 4, which implies an upside of 28.21% from current levels around 3.12. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $37.26M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $193.7M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 5.2.

5. MAP Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: MAPP  ) : Focuses on the development and commercialization of inhalation therapies for patients suffering from migraine. Of the 6 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 18, which implies an upside of 29.87% from current levels around 13.86. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $13.75M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $111.84M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 8.13.

6. Iconix Brand Group (Nasdaq: ICON  ) : Operates as a brand management company that engages in licensing, marketing, and providing trend direction for a portfolio of owned consumer brands. Of the 6 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 21, which implies an upside of 33.50% from current levels around 15.73. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $36.89M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $222.18M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 6.02.

7. GTX (Nasdaq: GTXI  ) : Engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecules to treat cancer, osteoporosis and bone loss, muscle loss, and other serious medical conditions. Of the 6 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 4, which implies an upside of 26.58% from current levels around 3.16. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $11.27M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $83.01M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 7.37.

8. Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL  ) : Engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer, metabolic, and cardiovascular disorders. Of the 6 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 5, which implies an upside of 20.19% from current levels around 4.16. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $54.38M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $223.16M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 4.1.

9. ZIOPHARM Oncology (Nasdaq: ZIOP  ) : Focuses on the development and commercialization of in-licensed cancer drugs in North America. Of the 6 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 6, which implies an upside of 26.05% from current levels around 4.76. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $14.06M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $118.93M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 8.46.

10. Gevo (Nasdaq: GEVO  ) : Focuses on the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. Of the 7 analysts that cover the stock, the lowest price target stands at 10, which implies an upside of 30.55% from current levels around 7.66. Average quarterly operating expense over the last five quarters at $23.08M, vs. most recent cash and short term investments at $97.61M, implies a Cash / Avg. Operating Expense ratio at 4.23.

Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.

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Kapitall's Eben Esterhuizen and Rebecca Lipman do not own any of the shares mentioned above."

Private Equity Firms Gear Up for an IPO Boom

This year might be a turning point for the major private equity players like� Blackstone (NYSE:BX) and KKR (NYSE:KKR).

Right now, the IPO market appears to be picking up momentum. In other words, private equity firms are likely to push hard to get their portfolio companies public.

Perhaps the first major deal will be Michaels Stores, which is the largest specialty retailer of arts and crafts. According to Reuters, it looks like the company�s private equity backers — Blackstone�and Bain Capital — will file the necessary papers for an IPO by next week. The report also indicated that the lead underwriters will be�JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).

Michaels went private in 2006 in a $6 billion transaction. While deal resulted in $4.26 billion of debt, the company was able to handle it because of its strong cash flow generation. Last year, it posted a 4.4% increase in sales to $4.21 billion and had operating cash flows of $413 million. By the end of last year, Michaels had 1,063 stores. But the company plans to roll out about 50 more for 2012.

If the IPO is a success, investors can expect some other high-profile deals to hit the market. Some potential candidates include Toys �R� Us, luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus, payment processor First Data and hotelier Hilton.

Between 2005 to 2007, private equity firms struck about $1.6 trillion in buyouts (according to research firm Preqin), and have made around 12,500 deals since 2002.

That means there’s plenty of potential IPOs to go around, and plenty of money to be made.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog�IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of��The Complete M&A Handbook,”��All About Short Selling��and��All About Commodities.��Follow him on Twitter at�@ttaulli�or reach him via�email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

STR Holdings Goes Negative

STR Holdings (NYSE: STRI  ) reported earnings on March 13. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), STR Holdings met expectations on revenues and missed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank significantly and GAAP earnings per share shrank to a loss.

Margins shrank across the board.

Revenue details
STR Holdings chalked up revenue of $36.5 million. The five analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected to see revenue of $36.5 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 63% lower than the prior-year quarter's $97.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at -$0.10. The two earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast -$0.04 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS were -$1.64 for Q4 against $0.31 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 11.6%, 2,630 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -11.9%, 3,530 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -183.8%, 19,730 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $36.9 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.05.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $207.8 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.48.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 49 members out of 54 rating the stock outperform, and five members rating it underperform. Among nine CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), seven give STR Holdings a green thumbs-up, and two give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on STR Holdings is hold, with an average price target of $9.84.

Over the decades, small-cap stocks, like STR Holdings have provided market-beating returns, provided they're value priced and have solid businesses. Read about a pair of companies with a lock on their markets in "Too Small to Fail: Two Small Caps the Government Won't Let Go Broke." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add STR Holdings to My Watchlist.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

PIMCO’s Gross Backs Off ‘New Normal’ Prediction

PIMCO's Bill Gross, seen here (far left) at Schwab Impact in October, has changed his economic outlook.

How the mighty have fallen. Is Bill Gross the next Bill Miller? Investors could be forgiven for asking after PIMCO Total Return experienced significant net outflows in 2011, the first year that's happened since 1993, as the well-respected bond king somehow missed the biggest bond rally in nine years.

And now Gross appears to be backing off his earlier "new normal" claim (or at least heavily modifying it). The new normal as PIMCO describes it is a world of muted Western growth, high unemployment and relatively orderly deleveraging.

"How many ways can you say ‘it’s different this time?’” Gross asks in his latest monthly commentary. “Mohamed El-Erian’s awakening phrase of several years past has virtually been adopted into the lexicon these days, but now it has an almost antiquated vapor to it that reflected calmer seas in 2011 as opposed to the possibility of a perfect storm in 2012.”

In typical Gross style, he writes that “we appear to be morphing into a world with much fatter tails, bordering on bimodal. It’s as if the Earth now has two moons instead of one and both are growing in size like a cancerous tumor that may threaten the financial tides, oceans and economic life as we have known it for the past half century. Welcome to 2012.”

Gross (left) adds that most developed economies have not, in fact, deleveraged since 2008, as he originally predicted. Credit as a whole remains resilient or at least static because of quantitative easings in the United States, U.K. and Japan.

“So global economies and their credit markets instead of delevering and contracting, continue to mildly expand. To the extent that most sovereign debt is now viewed as ‘credit’ in addition to ‘interest rate’ risk, then its integration into private markets cannot be assured.”

As to the investment implications of this “new, new normal,” Gross surprises by quoting legendary money manager Sir John Templeton’s four most dangerous words in investing–“it’s different this time.”

“For 2012, in the face of a delevering zero-bound interest rate world, investors must lower return expectations,” Gross concludes. “Between 2% and 5% for stocks, bonds and commodities are expected long term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable. Adjust your expectations, prepare for bimodal outcomes. It is different this time and will continue to be for a number of years. The new normal is 'Sub,' 'Ab,' 'Para' and then some. The financial markets and global economies are at great risk.”

This Morning: Potential RIM Breakup, Real RIM Downgrade, and More on Smartphones

Here are some things going on this morning in your world of tech:

Brutal morning for equities generally, with all the major U.S. indices sliding. The�Nasdaq Composite�Index is off 52.31, or 1.8%, at 2,840. European banks‘ woes are the proximate cause for this morning’s slip.

Shares of Research in motion�(RIMM) are down 76 cents, or almost 8%, at $9.10, surrendering pre-market gains they had racked up after a piece yesterday in the U.K.’s Sunday Times�by Ben Marlow and Simon Duke claime that the “Embattled BlackBerry maker plans break-up,” specifically, that it “could” sell the handset unit and then the sell its messaging network operating separately. The authors don’t mention what sources, if any, they have for the report.

They offer a quote from activist investor Jaguar Financial, which has pushed for a break-up. Jaguar’s Victor Alboini is quoted as saying, “�This is a clubby, cosy board,” with regard to RIM’s directors. “These are desperate times and they cannot afford to sit still.” (Subscription required to read Sunday Times articles.)

Meantime, RIM shares got a no-confidence vote this morning from Morgan Stanley‘s Ehud Gelblum from Equal Weight to Underweight, citing “deteriorating fundamentals,” in a continuation of downbeat notes on the stock in advance of its fiscal Q1 earnings report, expected this Thursday afternoon.

Speaking of RIMM, there’s a flurry of activity this morning regarding the smartphone�market more broadly. Goldman Sach’s Simona Jankowski cut her smartphone unit growth forecast for this year to 38% growth from a prior expectation for 42% growth, citing an 80% correlation between GDP growth, which is slipping, and handset growth.

Bernstein Research’s Stacy Rasgon, who covers Qualcomm (QCOM), meantime, digs into the various factors that could impact the chip maker, chief among which is a slowdown in sales of Apple‘s (AAPL) iPhone ahead of the expected introduction of a new model this fall. He sees some hit to Qualcomm’s chipset sales in the September quarter, and possibly to its license revenue in the December quarter.

Shares of Qualcomm are off $1.83, or 3.3%, at $53.81, while Apple stock is down $9.12, or 1.6%, at $579.98.

Speaking of smartphones, Samsung Electronics (005930KS) expects it may sell 10 million of its “Galaxy S III” model, which just went on sale, through the end of July, the company’s telecom director, JK Shin, is quoted as saying by Reuters’s Miyoung Kim.

And, to return to the Sunday Times for a moment, Nic Fildes this morning writes that the success of the unit “gives Samsung a headache” because it has not been able to get supply of key components fast enough to keep inventory at comfortable levels in the U.S.

Samsung stock fell over 4% in Taipei trading overnight to close at ?1,132,000.

In upgrade news, Canaccord’s Bobby Burleson raised his rating on shares of Nvidia (NVDA) to Buy from Hold, and raised his price target to $16 from $13, arguing that its “Tegra” mobile application processor and “Kepler” graphics processor will offset any injury from a soft PC market.

Nvidia shares this morning are down 30 cents, or 2.4%, at $12.69.

And shares of Red Hat were initiated by Scott Zeller of Needham & Co. with a Buy rating and a $63 price target, with Zeller writing that open-source software is getting serious consideration for companies’ restructuring of their data centers and “cloud computing” initiatives. Red Hat shares this morning are down $1.15, or 2.1%, at $53.86.

And Goldman Sachs‘s James Schneider today raised his rating on shares of flash memory device maker SanDisk (SNDK) to Buy from Hold, with a $45 price target, citing a potential “return to supply/demand balance” by the end of this year for “NAND” flash memory. SanDisk shares are down 26 cents, or 0.7%, at $36.10.

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (SSCCQ) Jumps after Reaching Agreement with Stockholders

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (SSCCQ) Jumps after Reaching Agreement with Stockholders

Shares of Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation (OTC: SSCCQ) jumped more than 20% in today�s trading. The penny stock reached a high of $0.22 in early trading and at last check was up 19.05% to $0.20, with volume up from daily average of 5.96 million to 6.29 million. Chicago, Illinois-based Smurfit-Stone is a manufacturer of paperboard. It is also involved in paper recycling and paper-based packaging. The company conducts its business operations through Smurfit-Stone Container Enterprises Inc., which is its wholly owned subsidiary. Smurfit-Stone filed for a Chapter 11 plan in a Delaware bankruptcy court in December 2009.

The spike in the penny stock follows the company�s announcement that it has reached an agreement with Mariner Investment Group LLC and Senator Investment Group LP. According to the terms of the agreement, some of the new common stock of Smurfit-Stone, which was as per previous plan supposed to be distributed to the general unsecured creditors of the company, will now be distributed to current stockholders of the company. As per the arrangement, 2.25% of the company�s new common stock pool will be distributed on a pro rata basis to the company�s existing preferred stockholders and another 2.25% will be distributed on a pro rata basis to existing common shareholders.

Commenting on the agreement, which has received the support of Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, Patrick J. Moore, chairman and CEO of Smurfit-Stone, said that the agreement is a major achievement for the company and positions the company well to emerge from a bankruptcy in the coming few weeks. The penny stock has reacted positively to this development.

The penny stock has a 52-week range of $0.06-$1.11. Currently, the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

About BeaconEquity.com

BeaconEquity.com is committed to producing the highest-quality insight and analysis of small cap stocks, emerging technology stocks, hot penny stocks and helping investors make informed decisions. Our focus is primarily on the underserved OTC stocks market, or �penny stock� market, which has traditionally been shunned by Wall Street. We have particular expertise with renewable energy stocks, biotech stocks, oil stocks, green energy stocks and internet stocks. There are many hot penny stock opportunities present in the OTC market everyday and we seek to exploit these hot stock gains for our members before the average daytrader is aware of them.

Foreign Exchange, The Carry Trade, And Arbitrage Vigilantes

What do you think of the Euro? How about the Japanese yen? Are you expecting the Thai baht to depreciate in value versus the Brazilian real? Speculators, central banks, corporations, governments, financial institutions, and other constituencies ask similar types of questions every day. The largely over-the-counter global foreign exchange markets (no central exchange) are ubiquitous, measuring in the trillions. The BIS (Bank for International Settlements) computed the value of traditional foreign exchange markets at $3.2 trillion in April 2007. Thanks to globalization, these numbers are poised to expand even further. Like other futures markets (think oil, gold, or pork bellies), traders can speculate on the direction of one currency versus another. Alternatively, investors and businesses around the world can use currency futures to hedge (protect) or facilitate international trade.

Without getting lost in the minutiae of foreign exchange currency trading, I think it’s helpful to step back and realize that regardless of strategy, currency, interest rate, inflation, peg-ratio, deficits, sovereign debt, or other factors, money will eventually migrate to where it is treated best in the long-run. When it comes to currencies, it’s my fundamental belief that economies control their currency destinies based on the collective monetary, fiscal, and political decisions made by each country. If those decisions are determined imprudent by financial market participants, countries open themselves up to speculators and investors exploiting those decisions for profits.

Currency Trading Ice Cream Style

As mentioned previously, currency trading is predominantly conducted over-the-counter, outside an exchange, but there are almost more trading flavors than ice cream choices at Baskin-Robbins. For instance, one can trade currencies by using futures, options, swaps, exchange traded funds (ETFs), or trading on the spot or forward contract markets. Each flavor has its own unique trading aspects, including the all-important amount of leverage employed.

The Carry Trade

Similar to other investment strategies (for example real estate), if profit can be made by betting on the direction of currencies, then why not enhance those returns by adding leverage (debt). A simple example of a carry trade can illustrate how debt is capable of boosting returns. Suppose hedge fund XYZ wants to borrow (sell U.S. dollars) at 0.25% and buy the Swedish krona currency so they can invest that currency in 5.00% Swedish government bonds. Presumably, the hedge fund will eventually realize the spread of +4.75% (5.00% – 0.25%) and with 10x leverage (borrowings), the amplified return could reach +47.5%, assuming the relationship between the U.S. dollar and krona does not change (a significant assumption).

Positive absolute returns can draw large pools of capital and can amplify volatility when a specific trade is unwound. For example, in recent years, the carry trade from borrowing Japanese yen and investing in the Icelandic krona eventually led to a sharp unwinding in the krona currency positions when the Icelandic economy collapsed in 2008. High currency values make exports less competitive and more expensive, thereby dampening GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth. On the flip side, higher currency values make imported goods and services that much more affordable – a positive factor for consumers. Adding complexity to foreign exchange markets are the countries, like China, that artificially inflate or depress currencies by “pegging” their currency value to a foreign currency (like the U.S. dollar).

Soros & Arbitrage Vigilantes

Hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, speculators and other foreign exchange participants continually comb the globe for dislocations and discrepancies to take advantage of. Traders are constantly on the look out of arbitraging opportunities (simultaneously selling the weakest and buying the strongest). Famous Quantum hedge fund manager, George Soros, took advantage of weak U.K. economy in 1992 when he spent $10 billion in a bet against the British pound (see other Soros article). The Bank of England fought hard to defend the value of the pound in an attempt to maintain a pegged value against a basket of European currencies, but in the end, because of the weak financial condition of the British economy, Soros came out victorious with an estimated $1 billion in profits from his bold bet.

I’m not sure whether the debate over speculator involvement in currency collapses can be resolved. What I do know is the healthier economies making prudent monetary, fiscal, and political decisions will be more resilient in protecting themselves from arbitrage vigilantes.

How to Tell If Level 3 Is Hiding Weakness

Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq: LVLT  ) carries $2 billion of goodwill and other intangibles on its balance sheet. Sometimes goodwill, especially when it's excessive, can foreshadow problems down the road. Could this be the case with Level 3 Communications?

Before we answer that, let's look at what could go wrong.

AOL blows up
In early 2002, AOL Time Warner was trading for $66.27 per share.

It had $209 billion of assets on its balance sheet, and $128 billion of that was in the form of goodwill and other intangible assets. Goodwill is simply the difference between the price paid for a company during an acquisition and the net assets of the acquired company. The $128 billion of goodwill in this case was created when AOL and Time Warner merged in 2000.

The problem with inflating your net assets with goodwill is that it can -- being intangible after all -- go away if the acquisition or merger doesn't create the amount of value that was expected. That's what happened in AOL Time Warner's case. It had to write off most of the goodwill over the next few months, and one year later that line item had shrunk to $37 billion. Investors punished the stock along the way, sending it down to $27.04 -- or nearly a 60% loss.

In his fine book It's Earnings That Count, Hewitt Heiserman explains the AOL situation and how two simple metrics can help minimize your risk of owning a company that may blow up like this. Let's see how Level 3 Communications holds up using his two metrics.

Intangible assets ratio
This ratio shows us the percentage of total assets made up by goodwill and other intangibles. Heiserman says he views anything over 20% as worrisome, "because management might be overpaying for the acquisition or acquisitions that gave rise to the goodwill."

Level 3 Communications has an intangible assets ratio of 19%.

This is below Heiserman's threshold, and a sign that most growth you see with the company is probably organic. But we're not through; let's also take a look at tangible book value.

Tangible book value
Tangible book value is simply what remains after subtracting goodwill and other intangibles from shareholders' equity. If this is not a positive value, Heiserman advises you to run away because such companies may "lack the balance sheet muscle to protect themselves in a recession or from better-financed competitors."

Level 3 Communications' tangible book value is -$2 billion, which fails Heiserman's test.

Foolish bottom line
If you own Level 3 Communications, or any other company that fails one of these checks, make sure you understand the business model and management's objectives. You can never base an entire investment thesis on one or two metrics, but there is a yellow flag here. I'll help you keep a close eye on these ratios over the next few quarters by updating them soon after each earnings report.

Keep up with Level 3 Communications, including news and analysis as it's published, by adding the company to your free, personalized watchlist.

Wall Street Professionals Admit: Yes, Lots of Us Are Corrupt


Is Wall Street corrupt? Responses vary depending on whom you ask. But ask the folks who work in the financial services industry and you'll get a surprisingly clear answer: "Yes."

A recent survey of 500 financial services professionals, conducted by market researcher Populus at the behest of law firm Labaton Sucharow, turned up some surprisingly candid results from the folks surveyed. For example:
  • 39% of financial industry insiders surveyed "reported that their competitors are likely to have engaged in illegal or unethical activity in order to be successful."
  • And this was more than just suspicion. "26% of respondents indicated that they had observed or had firsthand knowledge of wrongdoing in the workplace."
  • Nearly one in four "believed that financial services professionals may need to engage in unethical or illegal conduct in order to be successful.
  • Nearly one in three said they themselves felt "pressured by bonus or compensation plans to violate the law or engage in unethical conduct.
But pressure need not be succumbed to. Surely these financial industry professionals put their ethics, and the interests of their clients, ahead of personal gain, right?

Well ... not necessarily.
  • 16% of respondents admitted that they -- personally -- would break the law by trading on insider information "if they could get away with it."
  • Fewer than half could say unequivocally that they would not engage in insider trading in a situation where they knew for sure that they would get away with it.
  • What's more, chances are they can get away with it. Because "only one in four financial services professionals believe [financial watchdogs such as the SEC or other government regulators] are effective."
Lies, Damn Liars, and Statistics

Needless to say, these numbers are a bit discouraging. After all, these are the people to whom we entrust our money, our nest eggs, our life savings. The people who are supposed to use their expertise to help us establish a secure retirement. The folks who, in theory at least, have a fiduciary duty to obey the law and put the interests of their clients first.

Yet out of the ranks of these supposed paragons of virtue -- bankers, fund managers, asset managers, and analysts -- one in six lacks sufficient moral backbone to resist the temptation to break the law unless someone's constantly looking over their shoulders, making sure they play by the rules. (And that's the best-case scenario. Theoretically, as many as half of our financial "professionals" are potentially corruptible.)

Now add to this fact the apparently widespread conviction that "everybody else is doing it" -- and getting away with it -- and the further belief that breaking the law is almost a job requirement.

All of a sudden, the epidemic of mortgage fraud, the Bank of America (BAC)-Merrill Lynchbonus debacle, the Madoff scandal -- all of it starts to make sense. Suddenly, you start to understand why Goldman Sachs (GS) CFO David Viniar, when asked earlier this week whether decreased profitability at his firm was a cue to cut costs after he had just noted that Goldman was paying out 44% of all corporate revenue as compensation for his employees, responded simply that "we aren't going to cut our way to prosperity."

As I heard it, he might as well have responded: "Hey, I've got mine, Jack." Because on Wall Street today, that's apparently all that matters.

Motley Fool contributor Rich Smith holds no position in any company mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Goldman Sachs.


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Why Jim Rogers is Investing in Farmland

Legendary Wall Street trader and best-selling author Jim Rogers recently offered this unconventional advice: If you want to get rich, you should be investing in farmland.

Don't laugh. Rogers is good at what he does. Really good.

Together with George Soros, he founded the Quantum Fund in the 1970s and posted returns of 4,200% over 10 years. Rogers retired in 1980 at the age of 37, but is still active as a private investor.

Back in 1999, Jim Rogers recommended gold when it was trading at $252 and silver at $4. You know what happened after that.

Now Rogers thinks investing in farmland will pay off in a big way.

"It's the farmers, the producers, who are going to be in the captain's seat when the prices go through the roof," he told The Australian Financial Review.

Food Demand on the RiseConsumers in places like China and India - where an emerging middle class suddenly can afford a better diet -- are eating more of everything, especially high-protein meat.

But they have a long way to go to catch up to Western levels of meat consumption.

According to Time Magazine, the average American consumes about 250 pounds of meat a year. Meanwhile, the Chinese average roughly 100 pounds a year, while Indians eat less than 10 pounds a year.

As the middle class in these and other emerging markets expand in the coming years, demand for meat will explode.

But to increase meat production, farms will need a lot more grain to feed the livestock. Half of U.S. corn production already goes to feed cattle, pigs and poultry.

A prediction in a recent advertising campaign from Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) illustrates the immense demand that's just around the corner. The company said the world's farmers will need to produce more food in the next 50 years than farmers have produced in total over the last 10,000 years.

Soaring demand for grain has already affected the market. Monsanto said global grain consumption has exceeded total production for seven out of the last eight years.

"The world has got a serious food problem," Rogers told Time. "The only real way to solve it is to draw more people back to agriculture."

Milking Profits From FarmlandMeanwhile, new technology over the last 20 years has helped U.S. farmers significantly increase production. Redesigned seeds have increased yields and the use of computers has vastly improved planting techniques.

Such changes have pushed corn production from an average of 91 bushels per acre in 1980 to 152 bushels per acre in 2010. That, along with higher prices, is boosting profits and making farmland dramatically more valuable - and farmers richer.

Net farm income is expected to clock in at roughly $97.1 billion in 2012, the second highest on record according to the USDA.

Meanwhile, the average price for farmland has been rising since 1980, and now exceeds $2,000 an acre. Prices for prime land in some parts of the country have gone as high as $6,000 an acre.

Here's something else to consider.

Farmland typically is held for long periods of time and usually comes on the market only when the owner passes away.

But today the average U.S. farmer is 58 years old. The USDA estimates that over one-third of all farmland owners have less than 15 years left to live.

That aging population represents a window of opportunity for investing in farmland.

Investing in FarmlandOver the last 100 years farmland, based on income and capital appreciation, has consistently delivered positive returns -- with only three brief periods of negative returns (1930s, 1980s, and 2008).

And as the saying goes, they just aren't making any more of it. So a severe imbalance is developing in the supply and demand of farmland.

Farmland is also an opportunity to invest in an asset class not directly correlated to stocks and bonds, and one with significantly less volatility.

Jim Rogers believes investing in farmland is "in its third inning." In other words, there's still plenty of time to get in.

He was recently in Australia to launch a new farmland fund with the goal of raising as much as $350 million to buy farms in New South Wales.

That's fine for Rogers. But how can the rest of us start investing in farmland?

One way is to invest in agricultural futures through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (NYSEArca: DBC). The fund tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs.

Canadian citizens can invest in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a farmland private equity fund, with significant holdings in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Jim Rogers is actually an advisor to the fund, currently open to retail investors for a minimum investment of $10,000.

You might also take a look at Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO), a Luxembourg-based company that owns significant farmland holdings in South America. It owns nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, consisting of 23 farms in Argentina, 13 farms in Brazil, and one in Uruguay.

Related Articles and News:

  • Money Morning: The Glory Days for U.S. Farms are Far From Over
  • Money Morning:
    Investing in Farmland: How to Turn Healthy Profits From the Heartland
  • Time:
    Want to Make More than a Banker? Become a Farmer!
  • USDA: Farm Sector Income & Finances
  • CNBC: Food - The Next Commodities Boom for Australia?
  • Farmland Forecast:
    Why Invest in Farmland?

The Gold/Platinum Disconnect May Be Headed for a Reversal

Gold and platinum usually move in tandem, with platinum typically valued about twice as much as gold. Sometimes this relationship gets off kilter for a short while, but it usually corrects itself quickly.

Gold and platinum prices have been disconnected since the end of 2008.

The unique global economic situation during the past year helped make -- and sustain  --this atypical price spread.  Investors bid up gold as they searched for a safe haven for their wealth as platinum prices fell from a drop-off in industrial demand.

 

Now, as the economy is beginning to improve and investors are beginning to come out of hiding, the platinum-gold connection is ready to be re-established.

But there's a wrinkle.

South Africa is the home to the largest platinum mines in the world, which produce more than three-quarters of the world's platinum output,  Workers at the world's largest platinum mine have been on strike for eight days. This South African mine owned by Impala Platinum Holdings (OTC: IMPUY) extracts 15,000 ounces of platinum each week. Last year it pulled out a million ounces. So far, the strike has cost the mine about 18,000 ounces of production worth more than $22 million.

Workers struck after a pay dispute that began in June. Workers now want a 14% salary increase along with housing and transportation allowances. Impala has made several offers the workers have rejected.

When the strike began, Impala said it could withstand a three-week strike because of its above-ground supply that it can sell to its customers from.

But the labor dispute has expanded. A second Impala mine has gone on strike, and Impala is now losing 3,500 ounces of platinum every day -- 24,500 ounces a week. At this rate, the company will exhaust its reserves sooner than expected, perhaps sometime next week.

Impala's top competitor, Anglo Platinum (OTC: AGPPY), also has run into problems with its work force, which has rejected a pay offer but is not yet striking. Anglo is the world's No. 1 platinum producer.

Some predict the Impala workers will accept the company's offer and end the strike.  Other observers suspect the two sides will remain at loggerheads throughout a protracted strike. Workers at a nearby platinum refinery are also prepared to strike, which would have a more drastic effect on not only the company but also the price of platinum. And, to compound the potential problem, Anglo's workers could also elect to strike, which may so restrict supply as to send platinum to out-of-this-world levels.

The National Union of Mineworkers has said that workers could stay away for weeks or months if their demands aren't met. So far, Impala's inventory has helped it weather the strike. But that can't last forever, and time is running out for Impala.

Buying platinum now gives investors a great potential upside in the near term. And, if Impala does manage to smooth things out with the workers, there is little current downside risk because platinum prices are already depressed relative to gold.

The long-term trend for platinum appears to be upward. Industrial output will improve, and platinum will once again re-establish its parity with gold.

Careful Language Wins Clients; Wall Street Feels Political Heat: January Research—Slideshow

 

The January issue of Research magazine offers cutting-edge advice on communicating with clients and prospects, and assesses the tough election-year political climate facing the financial services industry.

“The Power of Words,” the cover story by Jane Wollman Rusoff, draws on the thinking of communication experts Raphael Lapin, Michael Maslansky and Frank Luntz, among others, to aid financial advisors in navigating conversations with current and prospective clients. “Advisors,” warns Lapin, “may be the experts in technical financial jargon, but they still aren’t the experts in working with and managing clients on a human level.”

Choose your words carefully, the experts advise. For instance, in Luntz’s view, “imagine” is a powerful word that helps people consider not only their goals but how an advisor can help achieve them. No less important than knowing what to say is knowing how to listen. “Pick up on something the client says or their body language,” Luntz suggests.

Political Monitor, a column analyzing national trends and issues of particular relevance to financial advisors, debuts with “Target: Wall Street,” an analysis of the implications of public disgruntlement with the financial sector, including the Occupy Wall Street movement. Other topics covered in the issue range from helping clients deal with health care costs to how a medieval mathematician helped shape modern retirement planning.

Click through the following slides to preview the January issue of Research.

The Power of Words

In this cover story, Contributing Editor Jane Wollman Rusoff taps the knowledge of leading consultants on communications to explore the crucial role of language and conversation in getting and retaining clients.

“The specific words you use, as well as your look, body language and tone of voice combine to create a perception as someone clients can or cannot trust,” writes Rusoff.

The experts she talks with include Frank Luntz, the noted political analyst; Michael Maslansky, Luntz's former partner, who consults for financial institutions and other clients; and Raphael Lapin, Harvard-trained communications expert and contributor to Research magazine.

Careful communication is notably important in dealing with an irate client. “You need to do some very good active listening and acknowledge what they’re upset about — but without agreeing with them,” says Lapin. “Understand and empathize: stand over to their side and walk along with them so there are limits to how much they can continue pushing. Don’t speak condescendingly. Ask clarifying questions. Eventually, the negative energy will dissipate, and you can bring the discussion back to problem-solving.”

Target: Wall Street

Political Monitor, a new column, debuts with an assessment by Senior Editor Kenneth Silber of the political ramifications of current popular discontent with the financial services industry.

“The question,” writes Silber, “is not whether the financial industry will encounter a volatile and difficult political climate this election year. The question is just how tough that climate will be.”

The Occupy Wall Street movement has raised the visibility of public disgruntlement with the financial sector. However, by late autumn, polls showed eroding support for the movement. Looking at an agenda sketched out by Kalle Lasn and Micah White, editors of the magazine Adbusters and key figures in getting the Occupy movement started, Silber questions whether measures such as a financial transactions tax are likely to win broad support.

Still, disgruntlement toward Wall Street stretches across the politcal spectrum. One idea that might gain backers on left and right, Silber contends, was sketched out by GOP presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman: to downsize the largest financial institutions to remove their Too Big To Fail status. For financial advisors, such a policy would mean the shakeout in the industry becomes even more intense, with layoffs at the biggest firms and a scramble for assets elsewhere.

 Health Care Is the New Wealth Care

Contributing Editor Ellen Uzelac reports on a trend among innovative advisors to develop expertise, either in-house or outsourced, to help clients grapple with Medicare and health costs in general.

This subject has become increasingly pressing as the oldest baby boomers have moved into retirement age. “Health care expenses in retirement can run hundreds of thousands of dollars — not exactly pocket change,” writes Uzelac.

As Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group in Dublin, Ohio, observes: “Five years ago, I’d be the one bringing it up in conversation as we talk about expenses. Now, I find clients are bringing it up before we even get to that line item. There’s a sense of urgency around this that didn’t exist before.”

Accordingly, advisors have become increasingly involved in matters such as helping clients vet retirement communities and pick insurance plans. That can mean collecting health information about clients so as to help them make decisions. For example, if a client has a family history of cancer, an advisor who knows that can steer that person away from an insurance policy that has a high deductible for chemotherapy.

The Market Really Is More Volatile Today

Writer Gerald Burstyn pulls together evidence supporting what many intuitively believe: that markets have become more volatile.

Moreover, he takes a wide-ranging look at strategies for dealing with such choppy markets. These include managed futures funds arbitrage, commodity trend indexes and stakes in currencies and real estate.

For example, Less Antman, founder of Simply Rich, a financial planning and asset management firm in California, suggests using commodity trend indexes as a hedge against volatility and weakness in the equity market.

Bob Southward, investment industry veteran and principal at Greenrock Research, advises clients to focus their equity holdings on dividend-paying stocks, reduce bond allocations and consider alternative investments such as a managed futures fund.

"The water is turbulent," writes Burstyn. "Swim at your own risk."

The Debt Retirees Owe to Fibonacci

Adapted from Moshe Milevsky's new book The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement, the January Annuity Analytics column focuses on the extraordinary achievement of the medieval mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in developing techniques that are still relevant centuries later to solving complicated questions involving interest rates.

For example, Fibonacci presented the puzzle of a business traveler who doubles his money in a couple of towns before returning home while also spending a set amount in each place. "With a little bit of imagination," writes Milevsky, "you can translate Fibonacci’s 800 year-old traveler into a modern day retiree who starts retirement with an unknown sum of money."

As Milevsky explains, "Fibonacci’s genius was that he broke-down complicated compound interest calculations — taking place across different periods of time — by bringing the cash flows all back to one focal point in time and manipulating those values on the same date. He eliminated the messy time dimension."

 The Very Best

Sales Seminar columnist Bill Good extracts key lessons from his annual Best Practices survey. His number crunching highlights the practices of "Winners" who have more than $200 million in assets under management, and those of "Not Winners" who have been advisors for a decade-plus yet have less than $50 million in AUM.

One lesson Good propounds is that the type of firm matters, as an advisor is more likely to reach a goal of $200 million AUM at a large national firm. Another is that having a solid support team matters, as advisors who fail to build up staff at an early stage are unlikely to generate a lot of assets later.

Another lesson is one that runs against much current thinking. "Hardly the day goes by that I don’t hear that advisors should limit the size of their books. The usual number is 100 families," writes Good. His numbers suggest that having a large clientele is an important method for building up AUM. Over half of his Winners have 300 clients or more. Exhorts Good: "Never stop prospecting!"

Alone With Your Thoughts

Closing Bell columnist Bill Miller lets his mind wander through the lonely side of life as a financial advisor. When a wholesaler buddy of his announces a move to become a rep, Miller wonders if his friend knows the full implications.

"Here’s a guy who, as a wholesaler, was never in an office for more than an hour at a time, and now he’s going to sit in an office all day long? Who’s buying him lunch every day?" the contemplative columnist wonders.

Miller remembers his own time as an advisor in a small Ohio town: "I finally understood why I went to lunch with any wholesaler who would drive down Route 67. I am secure enough in my manhood to admit, 20 plus years later, I had no idea what any of them were talking about. It just beat sitting around the office all day by myself."

View the complete table of contents for the January issue of Research.

 

 

Why Was Apple Up Over 7% Last Week?

Apple (AAPL) is the largest publicly traded company in the world and has completely transformed every industry it operates in. Steve Jobs' focus on innovation has permeated the company and created a commitment to consumers that has handsomely rewarded shareholders throughout the years.

I have recommended option strategies for Apple since 2010 with tremendous results. (For reference, please view the first and other articles in the series to fully understand the strategy and its strong potential returns.) In essence, the investment objective is to capitalize on Apple's volatility by selling out-of-the-money options to generate weekly income without sacrificing long-term returns.

As we enter the post-Jobs era, it is even more important to keep a close eye on your investment and execute care with your trades. Since Jobs has passed, the company's performance will be under a magnifying glass. Thus far Tim Cook has steered the Apple ship quite well, but in such a dynamic industry, victory can be fleeting.

A brief recap of last week in Apple (up $35.04 or 7.6%)

  • Sprint (S) Sold 1.8M iPhones Last Quarter; Best Quarterly Subscriptions in Six Years (February 8 Apple Insider)
  • All Things Digital: "Apple to Announce iPad 3 First Week in March" (February 9 AllThingsD)
  • Apple Brings Motorola (MMI) Lawsuit To United States (February 10 Reuters)
  • Google Increasingly Competing With Apple On Its Own Fronts (February 10 Wall Street Journal)
  • Apple Sues Samsung For "Autocorrect" Infringement (February 10 BGR)
  • Apple Seeks Injunction Against Galaxy Google's (GOOG) Nexus (February 11 Apple Insider)

Apple had the best week of the year as it surged $35 to bring the three-week total gain to $71. Apple is now at the doorstep of my $500 near-term price target and it is still startling to look at that $460B market capitalization and compare it to other companies. It was less than two years ago when Apple surpassed Microsoft (MSFT) to be the largest technology company in the world. Fast-forward to 2012 and Apple is not only the largest publicly traded company in the world, but is almost twice as large as Microsoft. Remember that no company's stock goes straight up forever.

I took some profits last week by selling calls, and while I am disappointed that I have forgone gains, I understand that Apple is a volatile stock and there will be opportunities to repurchase on dips. This also proves the weaknesses of relying on technical indicators as Apple's indicators all pointed to taking profits right as it climbed seven percent. Most of the price increase last week was likely linked to report that Apple will announce the iPad 3 in March, but is that really news? Apple's product release cycles are quite predictable to even casual observers, and I fear that we are entering yet another cycle of "buy the rumor, sell the news."

As you can see from the news above, Apple has been extremely active recently in litigation. This has been ongoing at an elevated rate for at least six months but has truly intensified in 2012 in terms of both frequency and importance. Overall I stand by my opinion that this is essentially noise and a distraction for Apple investors. Naturally Apple must protect its intellectual property, but I find it difficult to envision any litigation having a material impact on Apple shareholders. What is far more worrisome is the adversarial partnership between Apple and Google/Motorola as both companies rely on each other to succeed. It will be interesting to see how Tim Cook views this relationship after Steve Jobs' passing. Jobs was famous for his adversarial stance against Google and Android.

Below I present three possible scenarios and the potential returns for the Apple options. The first scenario represents a negative outlook for Apple while the final two scenarios are more reasonable. These scenarios are just projections and there is no guarantee that they will come to fruition. Even if you are optimistic it is important to generate both positive and negative circumstances in order to stress your assumptions. As a general rule, selling calls with higher strike prices has greater potential return but additional risk of loss due to the lower (or lack of) downside protection.

Additionally, if you would like even more information, I have prepared a sensitivity analysis for absolute return and percent returns, respectively. After studying the information above, these two charts make it easy to pick a strike price based on where you believe Apple will close at the end of the week. Estimate where you believe Apple will close and select the strike price with the highest return.

With this information, executing a buy-write on AAPL February 18 (Monthly) 500s is the optimal risk-return strategy. Please note that there is a higher probability of being called with these at-the-money options; therefore, you may wait to avoid them for tax purposes. Please consult with your accountant or personal financial planner. If you are uncomfortable with this strategy, I suggest a buy-write 490s, 505s, or 510s. Even if you are extremely bullish you can still profitably sell covered calls; Apple is volatile enough that you will have opportunities to repurchase on dips. An alternative approach is to sell out-of-the-money 485 puts and collect the premium without having to purchase the stock outright. Note that if the stock declines to the strike price, you are obligated to buy the stock, or close out the position.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL, GOOG, and MMI.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

South Korea Sees Property Market Gains

The Korean Statistical Information Service reports that South Korean housing prices rose 2.60% in real terms in 2011 for the year, and that housing starts and transaction volume also saw improvement. South Korean government began supporting growth in the market in 2009 by repealing restrictions and creating tax incentives. The government made further policy adjustments in 2011 to help attract investment. The new measures have boosted lending and helped to keep mortgage interest rates low. Even so, experts believe the country’s economy is weakening, which may impact growth in the long term. For more on this continue reading the following article from Global Property Guide.

South Korean house prices bounced back in 2011, after a slow second half of 2010. Housing starts and transaction volumes were strongly up.  House prices rose by 6.86% (2.60% in real terms) during 2011, according to the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). The Seoul house price index was up by 0.29% (-3.72% in real terms) during 2011, less than the national house price index.

Housing construction permits increased by 42.2% in 2011, to 549,594 permits, according to the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTM).  Apartment building sales were up 41.8% to 285,000 units.

In 2011 South Korea’s economic growth rate slowed to 3.6%, after 6.16% in 2010. This year, the Bank of Korea (BOK) forecasts 3.7% GDP growth, with inflation easing from its present 4.16% .

The rise and fall of house prices

The peak of South Korea’s house price boom was reached in 2006, when Seoul prices rose almost 20%. Then the government applied the brakes, imposing controls on housing loans, and hiking capital gains taxes on “speculative areas”.  These cooling measures caused a slight slowdown in 2007, with 5.4% price rises in Seoul (1.75% in real terms) and 3.1% nationally (0.6% in real terms). In 2008, house prices rose 5% in Seoul (0.86% in real terms) and 3.1% nationally (-1.5% in real terms).

From April to October 2009 there were house price declines, triggered by the Lehman shock and government curbs. Property transactions fell 35.8% y-o-y to September 2010, in the midst of a cycle of  overbuilding. The mini-slump caused the construction industry severe problems.

The government began reviving the housing market in 2009 by purchasing KRW 2 trillion (US$ 1.79 billion) worth of unsold newly built housing, and KRW 3 trillion (US$ 2.68 billion) of land from construction firms wishing to repay their debts.

This was followed by a more intensive expansion measures in August 2010, as the government partially eased real estate lending restrictions through the following measures:

  • Restrictions on total debt payment ratios in non-“speculative areas” were abolished;
  • Households with annual incomes of KRW 40 million (US$ 35,787) or lower can now avail loans worth up to KRW 200 million (US$ 178,937) for house purchases;
  • The grace period for extra tax on asset transfer income was extended; and
  •  Housing registration tax exemptions were also extended.

In early-2011, the government implemented more measures to help the decimated construction industry, including tax incentives for real estate investment trusts that buy unsold housing,.  It also halved home purchase taxes to 1% to 2%, from between 2% to 4%.  The government also announced the establishment of a “bad bank” – the Project Financing Stabilization Bank (PFSB) – to take on as much as KRW 1.2 trillion (US$ 1.1 billion) of non-performing loans, beginning June 2011.

In December 2011, the government revealed another new set of policy measures including:

  • Abolition of punitive capital gains taxes on owners of more than one property
  • Securitization of up to KRW 2 trillion (US$ 1.79 billion) worth of debt owed by construction companies
  • Rules preventing the quick sale of properties in Seoul’s real estate hotspots lifted
  • Expansion of eligibility for cheap loans offered to first-time buying married couples and low income-earners, and the reduction of lending rates by half a percentage point to 4.2%.
  • Reduction of the levy to 6% - 35% on profits obtained from home sales made by multiple homeowners from 50% - 60% rate introduced in 2005.
Lending is rising again

These measures have been effective.  Mortgage loans expanded 8.27% y-o-y during the first three quarters of 2011.  Household debt rose by 12.7% y-o-y the year to March 2011, and now averages KRW 50 million (US$ 44,743) per household.

Borrowers have also been attracted by the Bank of Korea’s low key rate, unchanged at 3.25% from June 2011 to January 2012, and by a concerted campaign to push bank house loan rates below 5%.

The government programs have rebuilt confidence in South Korea’s builders, as is evident in the rising shares prices of some homebuilding companies.

There are less unsold houses on the market – down to 69,807 in 2011, strikingly down on 2009’s peak figure of 123,297 unsold houses.  And this has been achieved with a banking system in better health, with the average bank loan-to-deposit ratio at 114x today, well down from a range of 120 to almost 140 between 2007 to 2009.

Interest rates low and quite stable

The average interest rate on housing loans has been about 5% since September 2011, a significant decline from the peak of 7.42% reached in November 2008. The Korea market has historically been very sensitive to interest rate changes, as traditionally around 80% to 95% of housing loans have been floating rate.

In order to reduce default risks, the Korean government has promoted fixed rate loans in the second half 2011. By November 2011 floating rate loans account for 69.1% of South Korean home loans, much lower than the 89.4% average in 2010.

So, paradoxically, although key interest rates are a little higher than during the slump – the key rate rose five times from July 2010 to 2011 - actual lending rates are very low.

Economic growth now weakening

South Korea’s economy - the world’s 7th biggest exporter - grew by 6.16% in 2010. But in 2011 exports were affected by the won’s appreciation to a peak of US$1=KRW 1,058.9 in July 201).

Economic growth slowed to 3.6% in 2011, with exports up only 12.5%. To slow the won’s rise the government increased foreign reserves, and by December 2011 the won was back down to US$1=KRW 1,148.30.

With 4.16% inflation as of December, the Bank of Korea’s key rate hike to 3.25% of June 2011 is likely to be maintained to prevent further currency depreciation, which could heighten inflationary pressures.

Unique rental system hits young people

In Korea’s unique chonsei (or jeongsei) rental system, the tenant a lump-sum amount of deposit to the owner for the use of the property, with no additional requirement for periodic rent payments. The deposit is fully refunded at the end of contract period with no interest.

The Chonsei system eliminates the likelihood of tenant’s default on monthly rent as the deposit is maximized until the end of the contract period. However, the lump-sum deposit, equivalent to 70% to 80% of the property value, imposes a huge burden for younger renters and new households.

According to Population and Housing Census Report 2000, 54% of households are in owner occupied houses while 28% are under chonsei contracts. The remaining 18% are under a monthly rental system called wolse.

Cheniere Energy Shares Jumped: What You Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Cheniere Energy (AMEX: LNG  ) are up 10% today after the company's credit was upgraded.

So what: Standard & Poor's upgraded Cheniere Energy's credit from CCC+ to B- after the company was able to raise capital and improve its capital structure. The company's Sabine Pass Liquefaction subsidiary also had its rating increased to BB-.

Now what: Credit rating agencies are judging the risk of a company defaulting on its debt, essentially judging the downside risk for equity investors. So it's a good thing for the stock, but it doesn't mean questions about the company have been answered. In the report, S&P pointed out that the company will likely report negative cash flow for the next four years, and that it will have to execute on its export facility over the next few years, as well as access the capital markets again, possibly diluting shareholders.

Interested in more info on Cheniere Energy? Add it to your watchlist by clicking here.

How to Interpret the Market’s Mixed Signals

If anyone doubted that the stock markets around the globe have been moving almost solely on the ins and outs of the negotiations over Greece�s debt and the recapitalization plans for the euro banks, I hope last week�s market moves have quelled those thoughts.

A 50% haircut on Greek bonds and “happy talk” about repairs for the rest of the euro zone got markets moving around the globe Thursday. Japan�s Nikkei ended with a 2.0% gain, and Hong Kong moved up more than 3.2%. London�s FTSE was up 2.9%, German�s DAX gained more than 5.3%, and in France the CAC 40 was up almost 6.3%.

With those kinds of numbers, our own markets� gains look tame. The Dow ended Thursday�s session with a 2.9% rise, the S&P 500 Index was up almost 3.5% and the small-stock Russell 2000 index was up over 5%. All major U.S. stock indices, except for the Russell 2000, are in positive territory year to date.

Bonds took it on the chin. Wednesday�s 2.2% yield on the 10-year Treasury turned into a 2.4% yield as investors sold. Extended-Duration Treasury ETF (AMEX:EDV), the longest Vanguard bond fund, fell 5.6% Thursday. About the only government bonds gaining ground Thursday were Greek, Italian and Spanish bonds. New Zealand�s bond market was flat.

Looking homeward, though, I believe that lost in the minutiae surrounding Greece and the euro bailout was this question: What does the announcement by the government of a plan to make it easier to refinance Freddie or Fannie mortgages at lower rates (assuming you are current on your existing mortgage) do to that market? I don�t see how it doesn�t raise prepayment risk and, on Friday, mortgage bonds sold off more than their brethren.

With GDP coming in at a preliminary 2.5% growth rate for the third quarter, mergers continuing apace with both Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) and Cigna (NYSE:CI) and earnings growth continuing, I�m not surprised that consumer confidence is at a low last seen at the bottom of the last recession.

Why? Because consumer confidence numbers, for all their headline-grabbing, don�t do a very good job of predicting economies or markets. They just don�t. In particular, at some of the nadirs for the consumer confidence index, you�d have been particularly smart to have bet on the consumer, rather than against them. As I said a couple of months ago, follow what consumers do, not what they say. Retail sales are up and running at their highest levels ever.

Why else would FedEx (NYSE:FDX) have announced that it will hire 20,000 temporary workers (about 3,000 more than they hired last year) for the holiday season? Economic slowdowns seldom are accompanied by increased shipping demand. Oh, and UPS (NYSE:UPS) chimed in with a more muted expectation for growth, but more growth nonetheless, in the months ahead.

Finally, manufacturing continues in slow-growth, not no-growth mode as the September durable goods report showed continued strength despite a decline in aircraft orders, which was expected because of a burst of buying in August. All in all, it was a good report.

Is Rovi Going to Burn You?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Rovi (Nasdaq: ROVI  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Rovi do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Rovi sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Rovi's latest average DSO stands at 91.2 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 83.4 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Rovi look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

Investors should watch the top line carefully during the next quarter or two. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Rovi's year-over-year revenue shrank 0.3%, and its AR grew 61.1%. That's a yellow flag. End-of-quarter DSO increased 61.5% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 18.3% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

  • Add Rovi to My Watchlist.

Netflix Is Flying too Close to the Sun

By Angus Robertson

Is Netflix (NFLX) more like Apple (AAPL) or Blockbuster (BLOAQ.PK)? Will it be able to stay one step ahead of its myriad competitors or will rising costs burst its bubble? The company on Mondayreported strong earnings but a more cautious outlook.

We've noted Netflix's heady valuation here for some time but the company continues to impress and certainly is not resting on its laurels, moving into the original content arenaas a way to differenitate its offering. Trouble is, this move along with increasing demands for higher payments from movie studios, could mean that ballooning content costs will drag the high-flying company back down to earth.

Tony Wible at Janney Capital is the latest to join the small but growing number of analysts who are skeptical of the Netflix story. He cut his rating to Sell from Neutral with a $170 fair value estimate (down from $175).

Notable Calls writes that Janney believes it will be increasingly more difficult to support Netflix's high valuation in the face of headwinds tied to Usage Based billing, a deceleration in sub growth, and an increase in competition that will likely trigger an increase in content costs and SAC. Furthermore, they are troubled by the company's streaming cost accounting and its limiting of disclosures in this increasingly volatile environment.

As previously noted, Michael Souers of Standard & Poor's on Feb. 23 cut his rating on Netflix to Sell with a $160 target following news of Amazon's entry into the streaming market, and Needham's Charlie Wolf lowered his rating to Underperform with no target

And Michael Pachter at Wedbush Securities remains unimpressed. He has rated Netflix Underperform since November 2009 and currently has a price target of just $80.

But there are plenty of analysts still riding the Netflix bandwagon.

Cannacord Genuity's Heath Terry boosted his target to $300 from $250."We continue to believe that Netflix is in the sweet spot between declining physical competition and rising digital competition,"he wrote in a report.

Several firms reiterated positive ratings and price targets in the $300 range. But some beginning to express reservations: As The Motley Fool notes:Wedbush Morgan, for example, was quoted in the Journal today grumbling that streaming costs could double or triple between 2011 and 2012, to as much as $2.2 billion. Morgan Stanley sees the higher costs hurting Netflix's "ability to beat rising expectations." Stifel Nicolaus notes that Netflix's international investments will likely lose money this year, while Goldman Sachs fears that higher "monthly domestic churn of 3.9% … is not going in the right direction." And Bank of America points out that "subscriber acquisition cost ticked up," and a "decelerating inflection point" could be near.

"Selling for 66-times earnings today, Netflix is priced for a success that its 30% projected growth rate will be hard pressed to achieve," TMF's Rich Smith writes.

Netflix closed yesterday down 9% at $228.91, compared with amedian 12-month analyst price target of $225.

Economic Data, Greek Progress Keep Bears in Check

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.44 (-0.01%) to 12,981.51
  • S&P 500 up 1.85 (+0.14%) to 1,367.59
  • Nasdaq Composite Index up 2.41 (+0.08%) to 2,966.16

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

  • Nikkei225 down 0.14%.
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.88%.
  • China Shanghai Composite Index up 0.30%.
  • FTSE 100 Index down 0.33%.

U.S. stocks ended near flat Monday as a rise in U.S. home sales and Germany's backing of a bailout package for Greece steadied investors' risk appetite. Underlying caution remains after G20 leaders failed to reach agreement on boosting the International Monetary Fund's lending resources.

Finance officials are holding off on boosting the IMF's firepower until European leaders take action to boost the size of rescue funds to provide a firewall against the spread of the eurozone debt crisis.

In U.S. economic news, the number of Americans signing contracts to buy existing homes rose during January to its highest level in nearly two years, the National Association of Realtors said. The trade group's index of sales agreements climbed 2% to a 97 reading last month, its best reading since April 2010, the final month before a federal tax credit intended to spur home-buying had expired. Readings of 100 or more are considered healthy.

January's gains followed a 1.9% decrease during December. The latest measure of home-buying activity also topped expert predictions, with the 44 economists polled by Bloomberg News, on average, forecasting a 1% rise for last month.

Also, factory activity in Texas rose again during February, according to business executives queried by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank for its monthly Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index climbed from 5.8 to 11.2 this month, continuing its string of gains in recent months suggesting the pace of growth in Texas as well as parts of northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. The new orders index was positive for a second month in a row although the February reading from 9.5 to 5.8. Capacity utilization further increased in February, edging up from 8.5 during January to a new 10 reading.

In company news, Micron Technology Inc. (MU) was among the best gainers in the S&P 500 after one of its Japan-based rivals in the computer-memory chip business filed bankruptcy overnight. MU, the largest producer of memory chips in the U.S., was higher on news that Elpida Memory Inc. had filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to win a second government bailout as semiconductor prices muddle near multi-year lows. In a new research note, Daniel Berenbaum at MKM Partners reportedly said MU appears "set to emerge in a stronger position" as result as Elpida's downfall. He recommends buying Micron stock.

Also, Dendreon Corporation (DNDN) slumped after reporting a Q4 net loss of $2.31 a share on $77 million in revenues, missing Wall Street forecasts. Analysts, on average, were expecting a $0.23 net loss for the biotech company on $120.80 million in sales. Despite the $2.70 drop for DNDN today to around $12.17 a share, the stock remains ahead 60.1% year to date.

Cheniere Energy Partners LP. (CQP) surged after Blackstone Energy Partners announced it is investing $2 billion through the purchase of senior subordinated paid-in-kind units. Cheniere Energy Partners said it will use the proceeds to partly finance the cost of developing its Sabine Pass liquefaction project at the Sabine Pass LNG terminal. Blackstone plans to buy 111 million CQP units for $18 per unit.

Commodities were mixed. Crude-oil futures traded lower Monday, hit by profit-taking and a higher dollar. Crude oil for April delivery declined $1.21, or 1.1%, to end at $108.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Profit-taking also took a bite out of gold, the metal for April delivery declined $1.50, or 0.1%, to end the day at $1,774.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) ATPG, Said oil production at Mississippi Canyon met expectations

(+) RTK, Announces Buy-Back

(+) CX, Announces Debt-swap

(+) PEIX, Results On-Tap for After hours

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-) INVN, Announced plans to sell $110 million of new stock

(-) BCPC, Reports Q4 EPS of $0.31 versus $0.36 in Street view

(-) NOK, Announces Potential Non-Core Asset Sale