Saturday, November 30, 2013

Emerging Stocks Rise for Fourth Day as Won Reaches Two-Year High

Emerging-market stocks gained for a fourth day, led by consumer and technology companies. The South Korean won approached a two-year high and the Indian rupee strengthened.

Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), South Korea's biggest automaker, climbed to the highest level this month. Largan Precision Co. (3008), which makes camera lenses for Apple Inc. products, jumped to the highest in almost three months. Qatar's stock index rose to a five-year high as Moody's Investor Service said the nation's Aa2 rating is supported by non-hydrocarbon growth. Russia's Micex Index advanced to the highest since Nov. 1. The won gained 0.2 percent and the rupee rose to the highest in almost two weeks.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.4 percent to 1,028.94 as of 3:29 p.m. in Hong Kong, poised for the highest close since Oct. 31. The gauge has rallied 5 percent in the past four days as China's biggest package of reforms since the 1990s spurred speculation that the world's second-largest economy will post more sustainable growth. Investors may get clues on the outlook for U.S. stimulus when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks in Washington later today.

"There is optimism that China's plan lays down the groundwork for sustained economic growth, while the threat of U.S. tapering is softened by signs that policy will remain accommodating," said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at Manila-based BDO Unibank Inc., the largest Philippine lender by assets.

Largan Jumps

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong increased 0.5 percent to the highest close since March 11. The gauge has jumped 11 percent in the past four days. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent, the first loss in four days.

Largan Precision surged 7.3 percent to the highest close since Aug. 22. Investors are speculating the company may get an order next month from Samsung Electronics Co., according to Yuanta Securities Co. analyst Dennis Chan. The company doesn't comment on client orders, Josephine Huang, deputy spokeswoman for Largan, said by phone today.

Hyundai Motor rose 1.8 percent to the highest level since Oct. 30, while Samsung Heavy Industries Co. climbed 4.1 percent to the highest close since Oct. 24.

South Korea's Kospi index and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index both increased 1 percent, while the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP) fell 1.2 percent.

Energy Development

South Korean and Malaysian equities were raised to overweight and Philippine stocks cut to neutral by Masatoshi Kikuchi and Kengo Yoshida, strategists at Mizuho Securities, in a note dated yesterday.

Qatar's QE Index rallied for a seventh day, rising 0.5 percent. The gauge is heading for the highest close since September 2008 after Moody's said the nation has "exceptional economic and government financial strength."

The Micex Index rose 0.3 percent. Bashneft OAO (BANE) climbed 2.3 percent, heading for the highest close this month. The oil producer is preparing for a London share sale by September 2014, Vedomosti reported, citing unidentified people.

Energy Development Corp. (EDC), the largest Philippine generator of geothermal power, tumbled 12 percent, the sharpest loss since April 2009. The company said none of its Leyte plants damaged by Typhoon Haiyan are operable and it's invoking force majeure under a purchase contract with National Power Corp.

The won rose 0.2 percent against the dollar as global investors bought more South Korean shares than they sold. India's rupee strengthened 0.7 percent to the highest level in almost two weeks.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has lost 2.5 percent this year and trades at 10.8 times projected 12-month earnings. The MSCI World Index has advanced 21 percent this year and is valued at 14.6 times, the most expensive since October 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Sony sells over 1 million PlayStation 4s

Sony's PlayStation 4 is off to a hot start. Consumers in North America bought more than 1 million PS4s within the first 24 hours of the new $399 home video game console going on sale Friday. That's the fastest start for a PlayStation system so far.

Shuhei Yoshida, president of Worldwide studios for Sony Computer Entertainment, posted the news on Twitter Sunday.

PS4 has sold through over 1 million units within 24 hours of the launch in North America!!! :D

— Shuhei Yoshida (@yosp) November 17, 2013

As often happens when a mass release of a high-tech product occurs, a few consumers get a lemon. Some PS4 owners reported that their new console would not output video and had a flashing light, entertainment news site IGN.com reported.

"A handful of people have reported issues with their PlayStation 4 systems," Sony said in a statement to IGN. "This is within our expectations for a new product introduction, and the vast majority of PS4 feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. We are closely monitoring for additional reports, but we think these are isolated incidents and are on track for a great launch."

And the highly publicized release of PS4 attracted the attention of some thieves. Two men were arrested in Bakersfield, Calif., after robbing a customer of a PS4 outside a store, Yahoo News reported. And in Hutchinson, Kan., thieves broke into a home and took a PS4 in the early morning hours Saturday.

Sony will release the PlayStation 4 in Europe and Latin America on Nov. 29 and in Japan on Feb. 22, 2014. For more information, see Sony's PlayStation 4 Ultimate FAQ.

For more on the PlayStation 4, go to USA TODAY Tech's Gaming coverage.

Follow Mike Snider on Twitter: @MikeSnider

Stovall on Stocks: Cyclical Strategies

Cyclical stocks have outperformed during the November to April period; this six-month period is when investors typically lean more cyclically, after being more defensive since the start of May, notes Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist of S&P Capital IQ in The Outlook.

By now, many investors are well aware of the old Wall Street adage to Sell in May. But how versed are they on the S&P 500's (SPX) performance during the other six months of the year?

Since 1945, the S&P 500 rose in price by an average of 7.0% from October 31 through April 30, compared with just 1.3% for the period from April 30 through October 31.

From November through April, the S&P 500 gained in price 78% of the time, and beat its performance in the subsequent May through October period more than 70% of the time.

Rotating into the S&P 500 consumer staples and health care sectors from May through October, and then returning to the S&P 500 from November through April, beat holding the S&P 500 all year long by 310 basis points per year since April 30, 1990.

Rotating into the consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials sectors from November through April, rather than back into the market, beat the S&P 500 by 640 basis points per year, and resulted in an even lower standard deviation of 13.7.

Finally, this semi-annual rotation strategy also outperformed a buy-and-hold approach with its overall benchmark when using the S&P Equal Weight 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and S&P Global 1200 since April 30, 1995 (a starting date consistent for all four benchmarks).

Since 1990, history shows that from May through October, the S&P 500 consumer staples and health care sectors rose by 4.6% and 4.7% respectively, versus 1.4% for the S&P 500, beating the market during this six-month stretch at least 65% of the time. Yet from November through April, even though all sectors rose in price, consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials beat the market as much as 390 basis points and did so more than 60% of the time.

So putting this knowledge to work, a hypothetical investor could have done one of three things.

1) He could have owned the S&P 500 all year long from April 30, 1990 through October 25, 2013. He would have earned a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%, excluding dividends reinvested.

2) This investor could have engaged in a semi-annual rotation strategy, owning the S&P 500 from November through April, but then taking a 50% stake in both the S&P 500 consumer staples and health care sectors from May through October. This strategy would have earned 11.1% per year, and it would have beaten the market 57% of the time.

3) If this same investor engaged in a full-year sector-rotation strategy, in which he had a 50% exposure to the S&P 500 consumer staples and health care sectors from May through October, and a one-third exposure to the S&P 500 consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials sectors from November through April, his compound annual growth rate would have jumped to 14.4%, and he would have beaten the S&P 500 65% of the time.

Finally, one of the more convincing attributes of this strategy is that it works not only with large-cap, US equities, but has also succeeded nicely when using sectors from the S&P Equal-Weight 500, the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, and the S&P Global 1200 Index. As always, remember that history is a great guide, but never gospel.

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Friday, November 29, 2013

Strategies: Marketing tools can boost business

For small businesses, few issues are as important as marketing. You have to find and keep customers if you're going to stay in business, but few aspects of business change as quickly as marketing today. Every year, I'm asked to give workshops and speeches giving an overview of marketing techniques for small businesses, and just about this time each year, I do a roundup on what's new: what's changed that small businesses need to know about.

So here's my roundup of the trends and developments in marketing that have happened since last year that you and your small business need to know about.

Mobile. When thinking about new changes in marketing, the most important word to remember is mobile. More than half of Americans (56%) now own a smartphone. And in the last year alone, the number of U.S. adults who own tablets -- like iPads, Samsung Galaxy Tab, Google Nexus -- has nearly doubled, so that now over a third (34%) own a tablet (from only 18% in 2012). (Source: Pew Internet & American Life, 2013).

In fact, more people open their email on a smartphone than they do on their desktop or by going to "webmail" through a browser. Forty-four percent of email is opened on a phone in comparison to only 33% opened on a desktop and 23% through a webmail server through a browser such as Gmail. (Source: Litmus, 2013)

What this means is that your online marketing messages – whether a website, an email message, a web ad -- must be optimized to be readable and look good on a phone, not just on a website. Design all your digital marketing messages to be read first and most often on a phone.

Advertising on social media. Facebook. Twitter. Pinterest. While you may think of these sites as ways to keep in touch with people you know, they're actually still businesses and they have to generate revenue.

You have lots of ways to advertise on Facebook. You can pay to make certain that more of your own friends and followers see your posts (and yes, that's right – if you don't pay, not all of! your followers will see all of them). You can pay to have the friends of friends see your post. You can pay for a banner ad on the side. Or you can pay Facebook to place your posts in front of people who appear to have certain interests (hobbies, sports, music, celebrities, and so on) that you want to target.

Twitter is also happy to take your money to help you gain followers or get a message out. You can pay to promote your Twitter feed and gain more followers or to promote a specific post to get the word out.

Trending and new social media sites.

-- Instagram. Right now this picture-taking app -- designed for the phone, not for the Web -- is the hot site. If you sell something visual, start snapping.

-- Vine. What can you capture in a video that's no more than 6 seconds long? Apparently quite a lot. This app continues to grow in popularity.

-- Houzz.com. Coming on strong is this Pinterest-like site focused solely on home decor and improvement with more overt emphasis on sales.

-- Flipboard. Created for aggregating content on topics, Flipboard has recently launched a service enabling individuals to create their own "magazines," share them and gain followers. Watch to see if this takes off as a social sharing site.

-- LinkedIn. More important than ever, this site is especially important for B2B marketers. If you are looking to sell professional services (as well as find a job), make sure your LinkedIn profile is complete and flattering.

New-referral sites.

-- Uber, Airbnb, TaskRabbi. Call them part of the sharing economy, the trust economy, whatever -- what started as ways for individuals to sell unused extra space, capacity, time, and the like have become -- in essence -- referral sites for small and micro-businesses.

-- Local mobile delivery. There's a gold rush going on to become the dominant provider of same-day delivery service by some big players, including Google Shopping Express, eBay Now, Amazon Local Express Delivery. In a few larger! cities, ! these services present a new way for small businesses to be found by shoppers who need something now.

Rhonda Abrams is president of The Planning Shop and publisher of books for entrepreneurs. Her most recent book is Entrepreneurship: A Real-World Approach. Register for Rhonda's free newsletter at PlanningShop.com. Twitter: @RhondaAbrams. Facebook: facebook.com/RhondaAbramsSmallBusiness.Copyright Rhonda Abrams 2013.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Sebelius questioned about Obamacare site security

obamacare security hole NEW YORK (CNNMoney) At a House hearing on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Health Kathleen Sebelius acknowledged security concerns facing Healthcare.gov but said the site had not been hacked.

Until last week, anyone could easily reset Obamacare applicants' passwords and potentially hijack their accounts. The glitch was discovered last week by a software tester in Arizona, and CNNMoney reported the security vulnerability on Tuesday. Health spokeswoman Joanne Peters told CNNMoney that the Department of Health made key changes this week, eliminating the "theoretical vulnerability."

Sebelius rebutted incorrect assertions by Republican Congressmen that the website had been hacked.

"There was not a breach," Sebelius said. "It was a theoretical problem that was immediately fixed."

Related story: Security hole found on Obamacare website

Though the security hole was never exploited, the problem was quite real -- at least until last week. Anyone who could guess an existing user name and had a basic understanding of how to read a website's code could potentially access someone's account.

Congressman Mike Rogers, R-Mich., also asked Sebelius about the security implications of putting in so many patches and fixes. He said that adding in new computer code exposes the entire system to new risks. He also accused health officials and their many contractors of not performing a system-wide security test, a tech industry standard.

"You did not have the most basic end-to-end test on security in the system" Rogers said. "Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) would never do this."

When Rogers asked if the federal government would be willing to shut down the Obamacare website until such a test is done, Sebelius said no.

Related story: Obamacare site has another outage

During the hearing, Sebelius spoke at length about the website's many issues, apologized for its shortcomings and promised they would all be resolved by the end of November -- even while most of the site remained down Wednesday morning.

"Hold me accountable for the debacle. I'm responsible," she said. To top of page

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

High Yield with Icahn

One of the most successful money managers is paying investors a 6.6% yield for the privilege of multiplying their money, asserts Igor Greenwald, editor of MLP Profits.

I'm describing, of course, Carl Icahn, who's known for raiding cash-rich and mismanaged companies. His savvy picks are working out great for investors who hold shares of Icahn Enterprises (IEP).

Better still, IEP is a master limited partnership, with all the tax-deferred benefits of a boring pipeline company.

Icahn Enterprises isn't boring. The man can't seem to live without drama, whether it's dressing down Ackman regarding Herbalife (HLF) or trying to take Dell (DELL) away from Michael Dell.

But the truth is, Icahn Enterprises has turned into a cash machine because Icahn bought on the cheap, less famous companies throwing off under-appreciated profits.

He paid $30 a share for refiner and fertilizer maker CVR Energy (CVI) and that stock has appreciated 43% in 18 months, earning Icahn a total return of $2.9 billion through June.

More than a decade ago, Icahn paid pennies on the dollar for the unsecured bonds of Federal-Mogul (FDML), an auto parts supplier then mired in an asbestos-related bankruptcy. Today, his stake is worth nearly $2 billion.

A majority stake in casino operator Tropicana Entertainment (TPCA) also began with a Chapter 11 restructuring.

From January 1, 2000 to June 10, 2013, Icahn Enterprises has averaged a 20% annual return, multiplying investors' money nearly 12-fold. Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK-B) has managed only a triple over the same span.

With typical modesty, Icahn let slip earlier this year that he's felt under-appreciated relative to the Oracle of Omaha. Maybe that's why Icahn Enterprises, which has traditionally paid a piddly distribution, ramped it up to a $1 per share, per quarter, earlier this year and $1.25 more recently.

At the current share price, that works out to a 6.6% yield. Not bad coming from a guy who's beaten Buffett pretty consistently.

The stock is up 70% year-to-date and 36% since April. Icahn still owns 90% of Icahn Enterprises, and Forbes pegged his net worth earlier this year at $20 billion.

And despite the generous dividend yield and the big gains this year, Icahn Enterprises has a lot of unspent firepower.

It earned $331 million in net income attributable to the partnership during the first half of the year, and adding back $224 million in depreciation and amortization suggests minimum cash flow of $555 million.

At the current $1.25 per quarter distribution rate, distributions for six months amount to $288 million. So the distribution coverage is roughly two. Cash and investments exceed debt, which fell in the most recent quarter, even as the cash balance rose.

All this, including the suddenly large yield, is part of Icahn's plan to unlock even more value he claims is being held hostage by self-interested corporate executives and boards.

Like any complicated business story, this one is not without risks and there's no guarantee that 6.6% yield will stay around. This is a speculative capital appreciation play, and not an MLP you'd want to buy and forget.

Still, even an insecure payout this large to invest alongside one of the all-time greats is no chopped liver. We're adding it to our Aggressive Portfolio.

Subscribe to MLP Profits here…

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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Japan stocks rally after trade data, U.S. gains

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Japanese stocks rose in early Monday trading, with weaker-than-expected trade data pushing the yen lower, which in turn helped some export stocks. The Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK) added 1% to 14,704.36, with the broader Topix up 0.8%, also enjoying support from gains Friday in the U.S. After data showing exports grew less than analysts had projected, the dollar (USDJPY) moved back above the 98-yen level, sending some exporters climbing, with a 2.2% rise for Fujitsu Ltd. (JP:6702) (FJTSY) , a 1.2% improvement for Alps Electric Co. (JP:6770) , and a 1% bump for Toyota Motor Corp. (JP:7203) (TM) . Shares of Suzuki Motor Corp. (JP:7269) (SZKMF) added 2.9% after a Nikkei report saying the company would record its highest-ever operating profit for the April-September half. Retailers were also a strong spot Monday, with J. Front Retailing Co. (JP:3086) up 2%, online marketplace Rakuten Inc. (JP:4755) (RKUNF) adding 2.4%, and 7-Eleven operator Seven & I Holdings Co. (JP:3382) (SVNDF) ahead by 1.4%.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now

Yesterday, shares of small cap pain stock�Zalicus Inc (NASDAQ: ZLCS) caused�recent investors some extreme plain�when shares plunged 72.28% (but�are still up 100% since the start of the year) after drug candidate Z160 failed two mid-stage clinical trials���meaning�its probably time to take an objective look at what to do with this stock (as it intends to�focus on its pain treatment Z944) plus take a look at the performance of biotech industry benchmarks like the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ: IBB) and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA: XBI).

What is Zalicus Inc?

Small cap Zalicus Zalicus Inc discovers and develops treatments for pain.�Its internal pipeline includes or had included�Z160, an N-type calcium channel blocker for chronic neuropathic pain and Z944, a T-type calcium channel blocker for acute and inflammatory pain. Zalicus Inc also has a pre-clinical Ion channel program, which is advancing lead candidates for potential clinical development in pain; along with�partnered programs in other therapeutic areas as it receives royalty and milestone revenue from both Covidien/Mallinckrodt Inc. for Exalgo (hydromorphone HCl) extended-release tablets for the management of moderate to severe pain in opioid tolerant patients, and from Sanofi/Fovea Pharmaceuticals for�candidate Prednisporin��FOV1101, a topical ocular drug candidate to treat inflammatory ocular diseases such as persistent allergic conjunctivitis.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: Sky-mobi Limited(MOBI)

Sky-mobi Limited engages in the operation of a mobile application store in the People?s Republic of China. It works with handset companies to pre-install its Maopao mobile application store on handsets and with content developers to provide users with applications and content titles. The users of its Maopao store could browse, download, and purchase a range of applications and content, such as single-player games, mobile music, and books. The company?s Maopao store enables mobile applications and content to be downloaded and run on various mobile handsets with hardware and operating system configurations. It also operates a mobile social network community, the Maopao Community, where it offers localized mobile social games, as well as applications and content with social network functions to its registered members. The company owns proprietary mobile application technology in the cloud computing, the MRP format, and SDK development environment. As of March 31, 2011, it had entered into cooperation agreements with approximately 523 handset companies to pre-install Maopao. The company was formerly known as Profit Star Limited and changed its name to Sky-Mobi Limited in October 2010. Sky-mobi Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Another stock that's starting to move within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Sky-mobi (MOBI), which, through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of a mobile application platform embedded on mobile phones to provide mobile application store and services in the People�s Republic of China. This stock has been red hot so far in 2013, with shares up a whopping 88%.

    If you look at the chart for Sky-mobi, you'll notice that this stock recently formed a triple bottom chart pattern at $3.31, $3.28 and $3.40 a share. That bottoming pattern occurred over the last two months. Shares of MOBI have now started to uptrend and flirt with its 50-day moving average of $3.76 a share. That move is quickly pushing MOBI within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MOBI if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3.71 to $3.83 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 145,934 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MOBI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $4.96 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give MOBI a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $5.55 to $6.13 a share.

    Traders can look to buy MOBI off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $3.40 to $3.28 a share. One can also buy MOBI off strength once it takes out that breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: Voyager Oil & Gas Inc.(VOG)

Voyager Oil & Gas, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States. It primarily focuses on oil shale resource prospects in Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming. As of May 17, 2011, the company controlled approximately 141,500 net acres in the five primary prospect areas comprising 28,000 net acres targeting the Bakken/Three Forks in North Dakota and Montana; 14,200 net acres targeting the Niobrara formation in Colorado and Wyoming; 800 net acres targeting a Red River prospect in Montana; 33,500 net acres in a joint venture targeting the Heath Shale formation in Musselshell, Petroleum, Garfield, and Fergus counties of Montana; and 65,000 net acres in a joint venture in the Tiger Ridge gas field in Blaine, Hill, and Chouteau counties of Montana. It supplies energy and fuel for industrial, commercial, and individual consumers. The company is based in Billings, Montana.

Top 10 Stocks To Invest In Right Now: OmniVision Technologies Inc.(OVTI)

OmniVision Technologies, Inc. designs, develops, and markets semiconductor image-sensor devices. The company offers CameraChip image sensors, which are single-chip solutions that integrate various functions, such as image capture, image processing, color processing, signal conversion, and output of a processed image or video stream for use in various consumer and commercial mass-market applications; and CameraCube imaging devices that are image sensors with integrated wafer-level optics. It also provides companion chips used to connect its image sensors to various interfaces, including the universal serial bus and other industry standard interfaces; and companion digital signal processors that perform compression in standardized still photo and digital video formats. In addition, the company designs and develops software drivers for Linux, Mac OS, and Microsoft Windows, as well as for embedded operating systems, such as Blackberry OS, Palm OS, Symbian, Windows CE, Windows Embedded, and Windows Mobile. Its products are used in mobile phones, notebooks, Webcams, digital still and video cameras, commercial and security and surveillance, and automotive and medical applications, as well as in entertainment devices. The company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers and value added resellers, as well as indirectly through distributors worldwide. OmniVision Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is based in Santa Clara, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Alex Planes]

    Investors love stocks that consistently beat the Street without getting ahead of their fundamentals and risking a meltdown. The best stocks offer sustainable market-beating gains, with robust and improving financial metrics that support strong price growth. Does OmniVision Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI  ) fit the bill? Let's take a look at what its recent results tell us about its potential for future gains.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: China Metro-Rural Holdings Limited(CNR)

China Metro-Rural Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the development and operation of agricultural logistics and trade centers in northeast China. It also involves in purchasing, processing, assembling, merchandising, and distributing pearls and jewelry products. The company markets its pearls and jewelry products to wholesale distributors and mass merchandisers in Europe, the United States, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia. In addition, it develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial properties in Hong Kong and the People?s Republic of China. The company is based in Tsimshatsui, Hong Kong.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Katie Brennan]

    Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR) added 0.9 percent to C$104.93 and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. rose 1.7 percent to C$131.73.

    Niko Resources surged 3.4 percent to $8.64 after the company entered an agreement for a $60 million loan that will be funded by a group of institutional investors. Net proceeds from the loan will be used to fund working capital requirements.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: EZchip Semiconductor Limited(EZCH)

EZchip, a fabless semiconductor company, engages in the development and marketing of Ethernet network processors for networking equipment. Its products include network processor chips, evaluation boards and network-processor based systems, and development software toolkits. The company offers network processors for use in forming the silicon core of networking equipment, such as switches and routers; and for voice, video and data integration in various applications. Its network processors are single-chip solutions, which enable its customers to design multi-port line cards, such as processing and classification engines, traffic managers, media access controllers, as well as a range of specialized hardware blocks that accelerate various functions. The company offers Evaluation systems which enable customers to test NPU-based systems; and toolkits that assist customers in creating, verifying, and implementing solutions based on its network processors. It provides a library f eaturing data plane code for a range of applications, which include Metro Ethernet protocols, Multi-Protocol Label Switching, IPv4 and IPv6 routing, Access Control Lists, GPON/EPON OLT functionality, Network Address Translation, and Server Load Balancing. The company sells its products directly, and through contract manufacturers and distributors to network equipment vendors. It markets its products in Israel, China, Hong Kong, the Far East, Canada, the United States, and Europe. The company was formerly known as LanOptics Ltd. and changed its name to EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. in July 2008. EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Yokneam, Israel.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Evan Niu, CFA]

    What: Shares of EZchip (NASDAQ: EZCH  ) have jumped today by as much as 13% after the company reported first-quarter earnings.

    So what: Revenue in the first quarter totaled $15.3 million, topping the Street's forecast of $15.1 million. Non-GAAP net income per share came in at $0.23, which was right on target with expectations.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: Panera Bread Company(PNRA)

Panera Bread Company, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises retail bakery-cafes in the United States and Canada. Its bakery-cafes offer fresh baked goods, sandwiches, soups, salads, custom roasted coffees, and other complementary products, as well as provide catering services. The company also manufactures and supplies dough and other products to company-owned and franchise-operated bakery-cafes. As of March 29, 2011, it owned and franchised 1,467 bakery-cafes under the Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co., and Paradise Bakery & Cafe names. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    At the same time they downgraded Panera Bread (PNRA) to Equal Weight from Overweight on concerns that consumers believe it’s expensive. They write:

  • [By Alyce Lomax]

    However, maybe a huge part of the problem is continuing momentum toward quick-service restaurants with more upscale images or brands. For just a little more money, consumers can get a quick meal that's a bit healthier or includes fresher, whole ingredients at restaurants such as Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG  ) , Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA  ) , and Noodles & Co. (NASDAQ: NDLS  ) .

  • [By Steve Symington]

    Even so, investors have remained frustrated by Chipotle's refusal to either open stores at a faster pace or raise prices to improve tepid same-store sales growth, which came in at just 3.8% last quarter. That's shy of competing healthy eateries, including�Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA  ) which recently said its same-store growth came in at an impressive 5.1% last quarter. Even still, by not immediately raising prices, Chipotle is intelligently building customer goodwill, and remains open to the possibility of raising prices as economic conditions improve.

  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) was downgraded to Hold from a prior Buy rating at Jefferies.

    Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Markets.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: ATA Inc.(ATAI)

ATA Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides computer-based testing services in the People?s Republic of China. It offers services for the creation and delivery of computer-based tests utilizing its test delivery platform, proprietary testing technologies, and testing services; and provides logistical support services relating to test administration. The company?s computer-based testing services are used for professional licensure and certification tests in various industries, including information technology (IT) services, banking, securities, teaching, and insurance. Its e-testing platform integrates various aspects of the test delivery process for computer-based tests ranging from test form compilation to test scoring, and results analysis. ATA also provides career-oriented educational services, such as single course programs, degree major course programs, and pre-occupational training programs focusing on preparing students to pass IT and other vocational certification tests; test preparation and training programs and services to test candidates preparing to take professional certification tests in securities, futures, banking, insurance and teaching industries; online test preparation and training platform for the securities and banking industries; and test preparation software for the teaching industry. In addition, the company offers HR select employee assessment solution, an online system that utilizes its proprietary software and an inventory of test titles to help employers improve the efficiency and accuracy of their employee recruitment process. As of March 31, 2010, it had contractual relationships with 1,988 ATA authorized test centers. The company serves Chinese governmental agencies, professional associations, IT vendors, and Chinese educational institutions, as well as individual test preparation services. ATA Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Top Small Cap Companies To Watch In Right Now: Rackspace Hosting Inc(RAX)

Rackspace Hosting, Inc. operates in the hosting and cloud computing industry. It provides information technology (IT) as a service, managing Web-based IT systems for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as large enterprises worldwide. The company?s service suite includes dedicated hosting comprising customer management portal and other management tools that manage data center, network, hardware devices, and operating system software; and cloud computing that enables customers to provide and manage a pool of computing resources, as well as delivery of computing resources to business when they need them. It offers cloud servers, cloud files, and cloud sites, as well as cloud applications, such as email, collaboration, and file back-ups; and hybrid hosting that provides a combination of dedicated hosting and cloud computing services. The company also offers customer support services. It sells its service suite through direct sales teams, third-party channel partners, an d online ordering. The company was formerly known as Rackspace.com, Inc. and changed its name to Rackspace Hosting, Inc. in June 2008. Rackspace Hosting, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]

    Rackspace is probably being unfairly treated based on the company�� fundamentals, consistent revenue and earnings performance, and future potential. On the other hand, with the stock trading at 45 times earnings and 41 times future earnings, it will be difficult for Rackspace to meet expectations. This also makes the stock more susceptible to market corrections.

  • [By Anders Bylund]

    Ouch, dude. That swan dive came from cloud computing specialist Rackspace Hosting (NYSE: RAX  ) , based on a disappointing earnings report with a weak next-quarter outlook. The company is waist-deep in moving old customers over to the new OpenStack platform, leaving less resources for seeking out new contracts. So revenue jumped 20% year-over-year to $362 million, but Wall Street had expected $367 million. Rackspace rarely publishes quarterly guidance, but the second-quarter sales range provided this week sits 3% below analyst targets.

  • [By Laura Brodbeck]

    Monday

    Earnings Releases Expected: Sotheby�� (NYSE: BID), Otelco (NASDAQ: OTEL), Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE: RAX), Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE: RLH) Economic Releases Expected: Italian industrial production, Mexican industrial production, Portuguese trade balance

    Tuesday

  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, Web-hosting company Rackspace Hosting (NYSE: RAX  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

10 Best Safest Stocks To Invest In Right Now

LONDON --�Remember the good old days when investors held banking shares for their safe dividend income? The financial crash shattered that. More recently, banking stocks have been a recovery play for those investors brave enough to bet that the eurozone crisis wouldn't blow up in their faces. It's been a remarkably successful bet.

But if you're hankering for a safer play on the banking sector and yearn for those reliable dividends, it's worth having a look at�HSBC� (LSE: HSBA  ) (NYSE: HBC  ) . After recent broker upgrades, its shares are on a prospective yield of 5%, with a 4.2% historic yield in the bag. That's well ahead of�Standard Chartered�and�Barclays,�the other two dividend-paying banks. And HSBC surely has the safest dividend in the sector.

Safety in numbers
It's not just that HSBC is the second largest company on the FTSE 100, with a market cap roughly equal to the other four banks put together. HSBC's global footprint underpins its safety. With over 6,000 offices in 80 countries, its worldwide reach provides a strong competitive advantage to capture international trade flows and service multinational corporations.

10 Best Safest Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Fluor Corporation(FLR)

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, and project management services worldwide. Its Oil & Gas segment offers design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services to upstream oil and gas production, downstream refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals industries. This segment also provides consulting services comprising feasibility studies, process assessment, and project finance structuring and studies. The company?s Industrial & Infrastructure segment offers design, engineering, procurement, and construction services to the transportation, wind power, mining and metals, life sciences, manufacturing, commercial and institutional, telecommunications, microelectronics, and healthcare sectors. Its Government segment provides engineering, construction, logistics support, contingency response, management, and operations services to the United States government focusing on the Departme nt of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. The company?s Global Services segment offers operations and maintenance, small capital project engineering and execution, site equipment and tool services, industrial fleet services, plant turnaround services, temporary staffing services, and supply chain solutions. Its Power segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, program management, start-up and commissioning, and operations and maintenance services to the gas fueled, solid fueled, plant betterment, renewables, nuclear, and power services markets. The company also offers unionized management and construction services in the United States and Canada. Fluor Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    South America has become an unsettled region to mine in. Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM  ) had its Peruvian Conga project brought to a short stop over environmental concerns, while Vale (NYSE: VALE  ) recently abandoned an Argentinean project because of the country's policies.�Costs for Pascua-Lama have ballooned over the past decade and now stand at about $8.5 billion, putting it at risk of becoming an albatross around the miner's neck even before the court decision. Barrick even resorted to bringing in engineering specialist Fluor (NYSE: FLR  ) to expand the scope of its project management before the court order.

10 Best Safest Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras(PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. primarily engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining, trade, and transportation businesses. The company?s Exploration and Production segment involves in the exploration, production, development, and production of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas in Brazil. This segment supplies its products to the refineries in Brazil, as well as sells surplus petroleum and byproducts in domestic and foreign markets. Its Supply segment engages in the refining, logistics, transportation, and trade of oil and oil products; export of ethanol; and extraction and processing of schist, as well as holds interests in companies of the petrochemical sector in Brazil. The Gas and Energy segment involves in the transportation and trade of natural gas produced in or imported into Brazil; transportation and trade of LNG; and generation and trade of electric power. In addition, the segment has interests in natural gas transportation and d istribution companies; and thermoelectric power stations in Brazil, as well engages in fertilizer business. The Distribution segment distributes oil products, ethanol, and compressed natural gas in Brazil. The International segment involves in the exploration and production of oil and gas, as well as in supplying, gas and energy, and distribution operations in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Further, the company involves in biofuel production business. Petroleo Brasileiro was founded in 1953 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Brazilian energy major Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) is bulking up with a series of large-scale bond issues. The company said this week it aims to raise roughly $11 billion in a set of six flotations, to be issued by its subsidiary Petrobras Global Finance.

  • [By Tyler Crowe and Aimee Duffy]

    There have been some mixed signals coming from Brazil's largest oil company, Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) . The company has been able to pick up its production numbers lately thanks to some of its idle rigs coming back on line. Also, the company seems to be lining itself up well to expand operations into the pre-salt layer, which will be auctioned off for the first time in October. The problem, though, is that the company will need to add to its already large debt load to make it happen.

  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    So, I've decided to hold off; I just have the feeling that the waves of volatility will knock this stock down a bit at some point. Right now Seadrill's stock is riding high as one of its jointly owned subsidiary's recently won a massive $2.7 billion contract from Brazil's Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) . The eight-year contract adds to Seadrill's contracted backlog while also increasing its presence in Brazil's massive offshore oil market.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Offshore exploration risk
    Deepwater locations, especially off the coasts of Brazil and West Africa, have emerged as popular hotspots. For instance, Brazilian oil major Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) is planning to drill exploratory wells off the coast of Tanzania, where it holds 50% stakes in two offshore exploratory blocks, while Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) recently announced that it will move forward with the development of the Moho Bilondo "phase 1 bis" and Moho Nord projects located offshore the Republic of Congo.

Top 5 Canadian Companies To Invest In 2014: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

10 Best Safest Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Under Armour Inc.(UA)

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers products made from moisture-wicking synthetic fabrics designed to regulate body temperature and enhance performance regardless of weather conditions. The company provides its products in three fit types: compression (tight fitting), fitted (athletic cut), and loose (relaxed) extending across the sporting goods, outdoor, and active lifestyle markets. Its footwear offerings comprise football, baseball, lacrosse, softball, and soccer cleats; slides; performance training footwear; and running footwear. The company also provides baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves, as well as licenses bags, socks, headwear, custom-molded mouth guards, and eyewear that are designed to be used and worn before, during, and after competition. Under Armour sells its products through retai l stores, as well as directly to consumers through its own retail outlets and specialty stores, Website, and catalogs. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Cole Campbell]

    Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) has performed tremendously in the stock market since it first went public in 2005, and it looks to sustain its rapid rate of growth over the coming years. With a market cap that is roughly one-tenth of its rival Nike's, Under Armour has plenty of room to grow and increase its market share in the athletic apparel and footwear market. The company continues to innovate by introducing new products and materials, such as its recent "Alter Ego" line of shirts that have sold extremely well.

  • [By Steve Symington]

    Shares of Under Armour� (NYSE: UA  ) are currently up more than 12% today after the apparel specialist announced its second-quarter earnings results.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Nissan shuffles brass after weak earnings, big …

Nissan Motor said in Japan today that its net income for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 was up just 2%, to the equivalent of $1.1. billion on revenue of $25.4 billion.

Profits nearly doubled in Japan, but North American results were weak and European losses grew. Emerging markets under-performed expectations.

The company, Japan's second-largest automaker and No. 6 in sales in the U.S., cut its full-year earnings forecast 15.5%, to $3.6 billion, and announced a management shuffle to revive the company.

Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said at company headquarters in Yokohama that "our slow performance required immediate action to be taken."

Jose Munoz was named the new head of North American operations, replacing Colin Dodge. Munoz has been senior vice president of sales and marketing of Nissan and Infiniti in North and South America. He was in that job only since April 1, appointed to the post after running Mexico operations and boosting Nissan's share there to 25%.

Ghosn had said when he announced Munoz' appointment to the North and South America job that he "is the future of Nissan" in North America.

In an interview at the Detroit auto show in January, Munoz told USA TODAY that he believed he did well in Mexico by ramping up the automaker's communication and involvement with dealers, and he hoped to do that in the U.S. He acknowledged that it would a big challenge because the U.S. is so much larger.

In Japan, the new COO becomes Toshiyuki Shiga, a vice chairman.

Ghosn took pains to say he would not be leaving.

Semiconductors and Covered Calls

Nate Pile has launched a new advisory service, The Wagmore Report, focused on the conservative use of writing calls against long-term, growth-oriented stock holdings.

Steve Halpern: We're here today with Nate Pile, the longstanding editor of Nate's Notes, and now the editor of the recently launched newsletter, The Wagmore Report. How are you doing Nate?

Nate Pile: Fine thanks.

Steve Halpern: Congratulations on the launch of the new service. Could you tell us a little about the Wagmore Report and why you decided to develop a new advisory service?

Nate Pile: Yes, as you know, I've been publishing Nate's Notes for a little over 18 years now, and it's got a pretty good track record.

And I have a lot of subscribers who have been with me for ten years or more, and, as they've seen their wealth grow and also gotten closer to their own retirement, they've asked me to shift the focus of Nate's Notes to become a little bit more conservative to help them protect their wealth.

So I had to make a decision—do I keep Nate's Notes as is and add a more aggressive service, or go the other direction.

So what I decided to do is keep Nate's Notes as a long-term growth stock investment newsletter, and then add the second service that takes the same approach to stock selection, the same bias towards long-term investing and biotech and high-tech stocks, but to try to smooth out some of the volatility and some of the risk that's often associated with those sectors.

It also writes covered calls against its position, which means we give up some of the upside potential if things move too quickly, but it also helps to bring in some income and minimize our downside risk a little bit.

Steve Halpern: Nate, you've emphasized that this is not an options trading service and when people hear the phrase covered calls, they might be afraid that this is something that's a little too speculative for them. Could you expand on why that's actually a conservative strategy.

Nate Pile: Yes, if you're just buying options, that's a more aggressive way to play, because you're leveraging your money to a pretty high degree.

On the other hand, when you write covered calls, what you're doing is owning the underlying stocks and giving someone else, who wants to be speculative, the chance to buy it from you at an agreed-upon price before a certain date.

In our service, we tend to write out-of-the-money calls, so the stock has to go up for it to get called away from us, and if it doesn't go up too quickly, we keep the premium from writing the contracts, so writing covered calls is actually the most conservative way you can play options or be in the market, and that's your original question. It's not an options trading service.

We really do want to own the stock and write a call against, and, hopefully, hold that call or have someone else hold the call all the way to expiration and have it expire worthless.

There are some services that use the stock position as a way to write a call at, say, $1.50 at nine in the morning and then try to buy it back at $1.35 at 11:00 in the morning.

We're not trying to save pennies here and there. We really are holding stock positions and then using them as collateral to write these contracts and hopefully collect the premium as time goes by.

Steve Halpern: Now, let's walk through this strategy in terms of specific stocks. One area that you consider a favorite right now is the semiconductor sector, which, you know, you could be in the early stages of a new bull market. Could you explain what you like about the sector and then, after that, we can talk about some of the specific stocks?

Nate Pile: As you know, it's one of those sectors that goes in and out of favor, which, that tends to happen with all sectors, but, clearly, semiconductors are part of the future.

They're becoming more and more engrained in our daily lives and the thing about them is that the fundamentals don't always match up with what the stocks are doing, and I feel, at this stage, the stocks have come down quite a bit over the past year or so and they're just starting to turn the corner and head up again.

For better or for worse, a lot of those chip companies supply Apple, and as people started to question Apple, and it fell from $700 to just under $400, a lot of the stocks that fed into their ecosystem came down as well, but it seems to be turning the corner in one of the indices that I track, or watch especially closely, the SOXX Semiconductor Index has also been acting very well since April or May. We got positions in that sector.

One thing I should note about this new service is that, unlike my other newsletter, which was started with two hypothetical portfolios, this one actually has a real-life $15,000 account that I make the same trades in, so we really are limited the same way that a real investor would be, in terms of, it's real money and you need to allocate it wisely.

So when we establish positions now, we've got positions in probably five or six, maybe seven stocks at any given time, and usually only on 100 or 200 shares of each, against which we're going to write the calls.

Steve Halpern: So, for your specific recommendations in the semiconductor sector, you've initially taken positions in TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Could you tell us about those positions and the strategy that you're using with them?

Nate Pile: Yes, so all three of those companies are obviously semiconductor stocks. They've all been around for a while. In fact, TriQuint and Nvidia have both been in the Nate's Notes newsletter for at least eight years, if not longer. They're all doing work that naturally leads into the mobile device sector.

Nvidia used to be a graphic chips company. They still are but they're again making a big push into mobile, whereas TriQuint and Cirrus have always had a pretty strong hand in that sector, so I think we own 100 shares each of Cirrus and Nvdia.

The ticker symbols on those are CRUS and NVPA, and because those both trade in the $15 to $25 range, we have 100 shares each of those and then 200 shares of TriQuint, TQNT, and we own all three.

At this point, we have not written calls against TriQuint and Cirrus, because I am expecting the secretary to continue moving higher and I want to wait to get a higher premium for the calls we write, but because those positions are essentially unhedged in the portfolio.

With Nvidia, rather than write an out-of-the-money call, which is the usual strategy, we actually wrote an in-the-money-call on that one in case the market does take a fairly serious plunge downward.

We collected a much larger premium than we normally would and, obviously, if the stock drops below that lower strike price, it will be a loss on the stock side, but we'll also keep that entire premium and that's really the focus of the newsletter over time is to hold these same stocks that we like, for a three- to five-year timeframe, but collect as much premium as we can along the way.

Steve Halpern: Well, congratulations again on the launch of the new newsletter, The Wagmore Report, and thank you for joining us today.

Nate Pile: Thank you. Always want to talk to your subscribers.

Subscribe to The Wagmore Report here...

The expert featured in this column, Nate Pile, may or may not own positions in any investment vehicle mentioned here. The views and opinions expressed are his or her own.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Amazon, rivals adapt to shorter shopping season

SAN FRANCISCO -- This holiday shopping season will be the shortest in at least a decade, forcing e-commerce companies, including Amazon.com and eBay, to think up new tactics to grab as much festive spending as possible.

There are 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, compared to 32 last year. That presents risks and opportunities for online retailers and marketplaces.

Fewer days may mean less spending overall, crimping revenue and sparking more intense price wars that cut into profits. But the shorter season may also encourage more online shopping earlier as consumers try to be more efficient.

"It's going to be harder for people to get all their shopping done. This may translate into less spending overall but individual online shopping days like Cyber Monday may be a lot bigger," said Andrew Lipsman, vice president of marketing and insights at comScore, which tracks e-commerce activity. "At the end there may be a big bump in offline holiday shopping as people rush to finish what they have not done yet."

ComScore expects e-commerce holiday sales to grow 14% to 17%, compared to a year earlier. That forecast includes purchases on mobile devices.

Cyber Monday, the first work day after the Thanksgiving weekend, will be the busiest online shopping day in history when sales could top $2 billion. A quarter of all holiday shopping will happen late this season -- on Dec. 15 or after, comScore also forecast.

"We are hearing about new marketing tactics to extend the shopping period," Lipsman said.

Sucharita Mulpuru-Kodali, an e-commerce analyst at Forrester Research, said there are four main responses to the shorter holiday shopping season this year: Start promotions earlier, make discounts deeper, expose offers to more people and focus sales on Thanksgiving itself.

"Fewer days potentially means fewer sales. Everybody is worried about this," she added. "These are highly seasonal businesses and they are making heroic efforts to try to grab as many holida! y dollars as possible."

Amazon, the world's largest Internet retailer, said recently that its Black Friday deals will start a day earlier this year, beginning Nov. 24. New promotions will hit the company's website as often as every ten minutes from that date through the weekend following Black Friday.

Walmart.com kicks off a Cyber Week of online promotions two days early on Nov. 30 this year. The retailer will have 200 online specials every day through Dec. 6. The world's largest retailer said it will offer mobile app customers, Facebook fans and email subscribers early access to up to 20 of its best Cyber Monday deals.

Walmart also lowered its free shipping minimum this holiday season to $35 from $50. That matches Amazon's free shipping minimum, after the online retailer raised it to $35 from $25 earlier this year.

EBay is working with retailers, including Target, Best Buy, Macy's and Toys R Us, to help them handle the shorter holiday shopping period. One of eBay's main focuses this year is on shopping that gets done later in the season. This usually happens in physical stores, but eBay is trying to capture some of those sales through smartphones.

EBay runs a fast delivery service, called eBay Now, which lets mobile shoppers buy from major retailers through eBay's online marketplace and have the products delivered to them from physical stores in as little as an hour.

EBay Now usually wraps up at 8 p.m. local time. But hours will be extended from Dec. 16 to 23 to capture sales from consumers doing last minute shopping. Monday through Saturday, eBay Now couriers will deliver items until midnight local time and until 9 p.m. local time on Sunday, Dec. 22.

EBay Now usually charges $5 per order with a $25 minimum. But from Nov. 24 to Dec. 24, delivery will be free on all orders, the company said.

Barbells and Preferreds

Income expert Jack Adamo believes it is now time to build positions in preferred stocks; below, he explains why and discusses two of the initial preferreds that he is adding to the model income portfolio at Insiders Plus.

Steve Halpern: We're here today with Jack Adamo, Editor of Insiders Plus. How are you doing, Jack?

Jack Adamo: I'm well, Steve. Thanks.

Steve Halpern: You've long been considered among the advisory world's top experts on income investing. Today, we're going to discuss a specific sector of the income universe, preferred stocks. First, could explain what preferreds are and how they differ from traditional shares?

Jack Adamo: Yeah, the difference between common and preferred stocks is that preferred are higher in the capital structure, which means, in the event of liquidation of the company, preferred shareholders get paid before common shareholders.

Of course, they're kind of between bonds and stocks. They are lower in the capital structure than bonds, higher than stocks, and higher than common stocks. They also typically will pay, there are a few exceptions, but typically, they pay a solid steady dividend that does not vary, unlike a common stock dividend, which may vary.

The preferred is the same every year quarter until, it either is redeemed, in the case of redeemable preferred, or perpetually, in the case of perpetual preferred.

Steve Halpern: You note in your recent research that you've been focused on real estate investment trusts and MLPs as income vehicles that you preferred, but you've recently been shifting your attention to the preferred sector, why the change of heart?

Jack Adamo: Yeah, that's been occurring gradually over the last few years for two reasons. The REITs are getting very overvalued and the MLPs are as well, less so, but their yields are not what they used to be. Two years ago you used to be able to get MLPs with yields of 7% to 9% quite easily and quality MLPs.

MLPs have certain stepped tax structures that makes them a little bit more expensive to handle for your accountant and they're not appropriate for tax-deferred vehicles like IRAs, et cetera, where REITs are.

Preferred now are giving higher current yields. They're less overvalued. They're not overvalued in my view with most of them. They have less tax hassles usually.

Steve Halpern: Now, you recommend an approach called a Barbell Approach, in which you buy both the preferred and the common stock, to get a better balance for both long-term growth and current income. Can you explain this Barbell Approach to preferreds?

Jack Adamo: Sure, Steve, yeah, well, the only problem with preferred stocks, every investment has it's pluses and minuses, the preferreds generally have higher, not always, but generally, have higher dividends than the common stocks; however, as I mentioned before, that dividend remains the same, never grows in 99% of the cases.

Common stocks, the dividend will grow over time, provided that it's a good company and it grows. What I've been doing now, I've been buying some of a good common stock that has had good long-term track record, and a good preferred that goes with it, that have a higher current yield.

Now, the preferreds, nowadays, the preferreds I'm buying, usually the lowest one I'm buying is around 6.5% for the current yield, whereas the common stock, the S&P 500 average common stock yield is 2.66% over the last five years. It's even lower now.

The rate of growth on the dividend is only 5%. In terms of dividends, it would take 32 years for the S&P dividend to grow to the dividend in aggregate, to grow to the dividend in aggregate to common stocks, so there's...to the preferred stocks that I recommend. So, it's better for the current income aspect to have these preferred.

On the other hand, if you have a superior common stock, like the ones I'm buying, you're going to get some boost on the growth side too, even ten years out, when the total return on a good stock would normally be catching up with the total return on a preferred, this way you're getting some of both.

You've got that solid reliable income for ten years and the growing income from the common in the interim that will eventually surpass it. It's a really good, as I said, Barbell Approach that will give you really good current income and good long-term growth.

Steve Halpern: Let's look at your strategy in terms of some specific issues. One of your new recommendations for your high yield portfolio is Annaly Mortgage Management 7.875% Accumulative Series A Preferred (NLY-PA). Could you tell us about Annaly and this preferred in particular?

Jack Adamo: Yeah, the preferred, as I've said, as you mentioned, has about a 7.92%, their current yield, it's set up from a mortgage investment trust. A mortgage real estate investment trust called Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY).

It's been around for a long time. It's done well for a long time. It's up about, not quite, triple in the last ten years. It was doing better than that, but the real investment trusts that are mortgaged back are getting beaten up pretty much lately. It's down quite a bit. It's always been a volatile stock.

As I said, you can pretty much rely on that to triple every ten years. There's a lot of attention to this group now. It might be a little bit lower going forward. As I said, with all the ups and downs, that's what it's done over the last ten years.

It actually, and this is a rare instance where the common stock here, in this case, it's actually a common real estate investment trust, actually has a higher dividend than the preferred. That's not normally the case. This is very unusual, but mortgage backed REITs do have higher yields.

In this case, you're looking at somewhere in a 10% to 12% range on the Annaly common, NLY is the symbol.

Whereas, the preferred gets a little closer to 8%, but I like the paired trade of the barbell trade here anyway, because the preferred is much more stable. It's much more stable. You can rely on that every year. I think it's good. There're a lot of dividends to go around and, as I say, this is a stable aggregate.

Steve Halpern: Another new recommendation is Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR). There you've been recommending the 5.375% Perpetual Preferred Series A (CFR-PA). Now, you call Cullen/Frost one of the best little banks in Texas. What makes this such an attractive issue?

Jack Adamo: Well, again we have a company with a really great growth rate. It's about in the two-and-one-half fold in the last ten years. That growth rate has accelerated quite a bit over the last two years.

It's one of the most highly recommended stocks by R. Christopher Whalen, who is the best bank analyst anywhere.

He's held a number of government positions related to regulation, et cetera. He's now a principle in three different investment firms.

He's a regular guest on Bloomberg's and simply, without a doubt, the most knowledgeable banking analyst. This is one of his favorites. The common stock has got a decent yield on its own. It's yielding about 3%, a hair under 3%.

The preferred they have, its current yield is about 6.46%. If it gets redeemed, this one is redeemable, it's redeemable in 2018, if it gets redeemed, the annualized rate of return will be 9.4%. It probably won't get redeemed. If it does, that's an extra boost, which that again is 6.5%; you're getting about 9.4%.

Steve Halpern: Is that a situation where you would also look at a Barbell Approach buying both perpetual preferred along with the common?

Jack Adamo: Yeah, that's why I said the common has a decent yield, about 3%. It's got good growth. The perpetual preferred is about 6.5%, so you're doing really well there.

Steve Halpern: Finally, you point out that both of the preferred that we've discussed here today are eligible for a specific tax break. Could you explain to us nerds what you mean by that?

Jack Adamo: Now only one of them, Steve, may be, I don't know if I mentioned that in my original write up, but because Annaly is a real estate investment trust, it is NOT eligible for the lower dividend tax rate that is part of the tax structure nowadays.

REITs already get a tax break at the corporate level. They're not taxed at the corporate level, so all real estate investment trusts, not just this one and not just preferred, are taxed as ordinary income.

They do better in an IRA or 401(k), or Keogh, et cetera. You get the better tax rate. On the other hand, the Cullen/Frost, both the preferred and the common, they are eligible for the reduced dividend rate.

Steve Halpern: Thank you very much for joining us today. We really appreciate your insights.

Jack Adamo: Steve, it's always a pleasure talking to you. Thank you.

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The expert featured in this column, Jack Adamo, may or may not own positions in any investment vehicle mentioned here. The views and opinions expressed are his or her own.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

5 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Trades to Take for October Gains

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

SemiLEDS

SemiLEDS (LEDS) develops, manufactures and sells light-emitting diode chips and LED components. This stock closed up 16.6% to $1.26 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.06-$1.31

52-Week Range: $0.60-$2.44

Tuesday's Volume: 1.46 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 282,434

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, LEDS exploded higher here back above its 200-day moving average of $1.15 and broke out above some resistance at $1.19 with heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares soaring higher from its low of 79 cents to its intraday high of $1.31. During that uptrend, shares of LEDS have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in LEDS as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $1.15 or above Tuesday's low of $1.06 and then once it sustains a move or close above Tuesday's high of $1.31 to more resistance at $1.35 with volume that hits near or above 282,434 shares. If we get that move soon, then LEDS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.70 to $2.

Northern Dynasty Minerals

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) is a mineral exploration and development company in Vancouver, British Columbia focused on developing the Pebble Project, a copper-gold-molybdenum mineral project. This stock closed up 12.3% to $1.64 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.48-$1.69

52-Week Range: $1.31-$4.66

Tuesday's Volume: 682,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 248,384

>>5 Rocket Stocks Worth Buying This Week

From a technical perspective, NAK soared higher here with strong upside volume. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $1.33 to $1.31, after it gapped down sharply from $2.30 to $1.31 with heavy downside volume. Shares of NAK are now quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if NAK manages to take out Tuesday's high of $1.69 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in NAK as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $1.48, and then once it sustains a move or close above $1.69 with volume that hits near or above 248,384 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then NAK will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from mid-September that started at $2.30.

Renren

Renren (RENN) is engaged in the operation of social networking internet platform, as well as provision of online advertising services and internet value-added services, including online gaming operations, online talent show and other IVAS. This stock closed up 8% to $3.64 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $3.37-$3.71

52-Week Range: $2.52-$4.63

Tuesday's Volume: 6.68 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 3.19 million

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

From a technical perspective, RENN ripped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $3.31 and back above its 50-day moving average of $3.53 with monster upside volume. This move pushed shares of RENN into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $3.54 and flirted with more resistance at $3.69. Shares of RENN are now quickly moving within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if RENN manages to clear Tuesday's high of $3.71 and then once it takes out more resistance at $3.80 to $3.90 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RENN as long as it's trending above support at $3.31 or above its 200-day at $3.22 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 3.19 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then RENN will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from August that started at $4.60.

Atlantic Power

Atlantic Power (AT) is a power generation and infrastructure company in the U.S. and Canada. This stock closed up 6.9% to $4.61 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.30-$4.61

52-Week Range: $3.81-$15.18

Tuesday's Volume: 2.25 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 652,583

>>5 Bargain Bin Stocks to Buy This Fall

From a technical perspective, AT surged sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $4.11 with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of AT into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $4.50 to $4.55. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $3.83 to its intraday high of $4.61. During that move, shares of AT have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AT as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $4.11 and then once it sustains a move or close above Tuesday's high of $4.61 and above more resistance at $4.73 with volume that hits near or above 652,583 shares. If we get that move soon, then AT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $5.36 to $7.

Syntroleum

Syntroleum (SYNM) is engaged in the commercialization of its technology to produce synthetic liquid hydrocarbons with reduced levels of contaminants normally found in conventional hydrocarbon products. This stock closed up 7.8% to $4.97 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.60-$5.06

52-Week Range: $3.30-$8.20

Tuesday's Volume: 154,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 67,709

From a technical perspective, SYNM jumped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $4.30 with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last two months and change, with shares plunging lower from its high of $7.75 to its recent low of $4.30. During that downtrend, shares of SYNM have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of SYNM might be ready to see an end to its downside volatility now that the stock is moving within range of breaking out above a key downtrend line. That breakout will hit if SYNM manages to take out its 200-day at $5.23 and then once it clears more key resistance at $5.93 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SYNM as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $4.60 or above more near-term support at $4.30 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 67,709 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SYNM could be in for an explosive move higher that takes the stock back towards its next major overhead resistance levels at $7 to $7.50.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Rising on Big Volume



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar



>>5 Dividend Stocks That Want to Pay You More

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Will Walgreen Continue Higher Post-Earnings?

With shares of Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) trading around $56, is WAG an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Walgreen operates a drugstore chain in the United States. The company provides its customers with access to consumer goods and services, pharmacy, and health and wellness services in communities across the U.S. Walgreen sells prescription and non-prescription drugs, as well as general merchandise that includes household items, convenience and fresh foods, photo finishing, and candy. General convenience and wellness merchandise is important to consumers across the nation, and Walgreen is a go-to shop for quick and efficient general merchandise and health and wellness experience for consumers that should continue well into the future.

On Tuesday morning, Walgreen posted earnings that beat Wall Street's expectations, but came up short on the revenue expectation. “We had a solid quarter across our entire business. We saw improvement in our daily living business resulting from the investments we made and enhanced execution. We also saw continued strength in our pharmacy business as we increased our retail pharmacy market share for the fiscal year to 19.1 percent, and we continued to make great progress on controlling selling, general and administrative costs,” said Walgreens President and CEO Greg Wasson.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Walgreen stock has surged to the upside in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near all-time high prices and looks poised to continue higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Walgreen is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

WAG

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Walgreen options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Walgreen Options

25.24%

16%

15%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Flat

Average

November Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Walgreen’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Walgreen look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

15.87%

18.06%

1.28%

-31.75%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.08%

3.16%

-0.02%

-4.63%

Earnings Reaction

5.22%*

-5.89%

5.44%

-3.30%

Walgreen has seen increasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Walgreen’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Walgreen stock done relative to its peers, CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and sector?

Walgreen

CVS Caremark

Rite Aid

Wal-Mart

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

50.39%

19.26%

260.70%

8.00%

18.33%

Walgreen has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Walgreen is a pharmacy and general merchandise retailer that provides health, wellness, and other general products to consumers across the nation. A recent earnings release has investors excited about the company. The stock is now trading near all time high prices and looks ready to move higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been rising while revenues have been mixed which has produced conflicting feelings among investors about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Walgreen has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Walgreen to continue to OUTPERFORM.

How to Profit from This Disconnect in the Oil Markets

There is something very interesting developing in the oil markets right now.

It's not front page news yet, but it is something that you'll want to keep an eye on - especially if you want to make money with oil stocks.

It revolves around what's called "the spread." In this case it's the difference in price between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent.

Once again, the price of these two oil benchmarks is moving in opposite directions. The price of crude in New York is going south, while the price in London is heading north.

In fact, as of open this morning, the spread between the two now stands at 15.6% of the WTI price and continues to widen. In the last week, this spread has almost doubled.

This move is helping to create what I call a valuation disconnect.

The good news is that this growing "spread" is going to make us even more money...

The Problem with the "Conventional Wisdom"

Let me explain what I mean by that...

In the past, we used to look at this spread as a yardstick for estimating the effect of the differential on actual changes in crude oil pricing. In this case, the "paper" barrels - representing the one-month out, or near-month, commitments to purchase crude - tend to drive up (or down) the effective price of the "wet" barrels, or the actual oil sold.

Now on any given day, there are far more paper barrels than wet barrels traded, with the excess futures commitments canceled out prior to the actual delivery of oil.

For some time, these futures have been leading the market price for oil, causing occasional criticisms that price volatility is more a result of the paper trade than the demand for the oil itself.

This has been a recurring theme when it comes to the commentary on oil price trends.

Movements in futures do tend to pull along the underlying market price. This connection still holds in large part, but it is the second part of the assumption that is now undergoing some interesting change.

The "conventional wisdom" would tell you that the futures price-market price dynamic should impact the profitability of individual oil-related companies.

Now this appears obvious, at least on its face...

If the profit margin on the actual oil shrinks, shouldn't there be a similar move in the shares of the oil companies?

Well, that's not true anymore - at least not for all companies.

In what is shaping up to be a significant revision in how investors should look at oil stocks, there is a disconnect now developing between the underlying price of the raw material and the value of selected oil stocks.

This valuation disconnect has developed because there are now several other market factors involved besides the price of the raw material itself.

A New Normal for Oil Stocks

To be sure, an absolute collapse or an accelerated spike in oil prices would have a short-term impact across the board. What I am referring to here is WTI and Brent prices losing or gaining 30% or more of value over a narrow period.

Such a highly unusual and compressed volatility cycle is what statisticians refer to as kurtosis.

This simply means that most of the change takes place in a very short period of time, rather than over broader periods where the market can compensate for changes in the trend. These are very rare events that render the model used to determine proper futures pricing inoperable. That merely adds to the volatility.

Of course, I have investment strategies designed to deal with these highly unusual events. But what occurs most of the time is something else quite different.

Here we are experiencing the emergence of a different series of relationships.

And unless a price point is determined by a sudden collapse in demand (something that is not going to happen anytime even remotely soon), there is a threshold of oil demand the market cannot cross without triggering significant supply-side pricing inflation (via localized constriction in availability).

This "new normal" tells us that prices may advance or decline in a narrower range more frequently. But this hardly has the same effect across the board.

In other words, some companies will fare better than others...

And there are three ways to identify the winners. Here's what you need to look for:

First, you need to identify where companies fall in the upstream-midstream-downstream sequence.

Second, you need to know exactly what regions and basins the companies are active in.

And finally, you need to understand what infrastructure components and assets are essential to the companies and are under their control (or ownership).

The first consideration is why my Energy Advantage and Energy Inner Circle services target specific sectors of the upstream-midstream-downstream sequence where pricing may actually improve beyond the average performance of the oil sector.

Meanwhile, the second merely reflects what has become a major factor in today's markets, especially in the United States. That's because production, pipeline transport, and refining are not subject to the same uniform pricing pressures in different areas of the country. Some basins have less expensive production costs, storage and transit fees, and refinery operating expenses than others.

However, it is the third consideration that is contributing the most to this new disconnect.

Here's why.

Moving product from the field to the end user involves a number of pricing points. If the transfer cost at each of these points requires arms-length contracts (those between distinct business entities), the overall profitability for the entire sequence will decline.

What is emerging, especially in the application of master limited partnerships (MLPs) and other restricted partnership arrangements, is the increasing consolidation of the separate components in the same operation.

Here's why that's important: It allows normal market costs to be replaced with a kind of transfer pricing.

This type of pricing is why big oil companies used to try to control as many stages of the process as possible. This ushered in the age of the vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs).

Some of these remain, but the climate is very different now.

For most companies today, specializing in their most efficient aspect - while also finding ways to associate cost controls with others - is the new mantra.

The companies that are succeeding are the ones that have put more of their costs within a new transfer pricing arrangement. These separate operations are no longer contained in the same corporate structure (the traditional meaning of transfer pricing), but accomplish the same result.

Therefore, in a market where oil prices are declining but demand still remains, some companies are going to see better bottom line results. In the end, you can bet it will be reflected in higher share prices for oil stocks.

The game is now less about the price of oil and more about the different strengths of each individual operator.

That "spread" is already improving our prospects for higher returns.

Money really does grow on trees: Gold's Shocking New "Pick and Shovel" Play