Friday, August 31, 2012

PANL: Bulls Heartened By Samsung Details, Patent Remarks

Shares of Universal Display (PANL) are holding up well in a very poor market after the company’s Q3 results last night blew away expectations, and the company expressed confidence it will prevail in recent patent battles.

PANL is up $3.76, or almost 8%, at $53.20. Bulls seems mostly reassured today about both what they learned regarding the company’s deal with Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) to use the company’s organic light-emitting diode material, as well as the company’s upbeat defense of its patent position.

Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating. He’s not yet making any changes to estimates, but he thinks sales of “host materials” could be a “driver” of growth, and Our assumption,adoption of green materials from 20% in 1Q 2012 to 100% by 2Q 2013, may be too conservative.” As far as the matter of patent disputes, and a highly contested ruling in Germany last week, Susanto concludes, “Bottom line, we continue to believe that this current outcome does not affect PANL�s IP portfolio and PANL�s IP portfolio in emitter material is still defensive (barrier to entry for others).”

Darice Liu, Brigantine Advisors: Reiterates a Buy rating and raised her price target to $59 from $56. She raised her 2011 estimate to $61 million in revenue and a 1-cent-a-share loss from a prior $49 million and 20-cent loss. Liu is inclined to accept the company’s characterization that a revised patent filing in the European Union will not have an adverse affect, writing, ” The claims regarding Os (Osmium) are being separated. The broader claims for phosphorescent outside of OLEDs were not upheld, but since PANL is focused on the OLED market, we don�t believe it will impact the Company.” She thinks “new customer relationships will materialize in the next 6-12 months,” and that “the OLED lighting efforts are starting to bear fruit.”

Robert Stone, Cowen & Co.: Reiterates an Outperform rating and a forecasts 20% upside to the market in the next twelve months. Stone raised his estimates for this year to $60.6 million and an 8-cent profit, versus a prior estimate of $46.9 million and a 13-cent loss. “Patent issues appear manageable and additional details around the Samsung contract were released, including initial shipments of green material. We believe the industry is on the cusp of accelerating growth and that PANL is positioned to benefit.”

Not everyone is completely satisfied, however:

Jonathan Dorsheimer, Canaccord Genuity: Reiterates a Hold rating and cuts his price target to $41 from $48. He thinks there are “more questions than answers” following the results. What questions? “Specifically, we are trying to get a better understanding on the size and the dilutive effects of increased host materials as well as the ramifications for existing and future revenue streams given the narrowing of the �238 patent in Europe [...] Given limited details around what we view as significant changes in the business model as well as the uncertain implications from recent IP litigation, our estimates are subject to revision as we do further diligence in the coming weeks.”

James Ricchiuti, Needham & Co.: Reiterates a Hold rating, while revising up his 2011 estimate to $61.3 million in revenue and 10 cents a share in profit, up from $45.6 million and a net loss of 12 cents a share. “esults benefited from a strong license revenue contribution from Samsung in the first quarter since announcing the new 7-year license deal. Management also provided revenue guidance for the first time for both Q4 and 2012, which was toward the upper end of Street expectations. We would expect PANL shares to be up on the strong results. We are maintaining our Hold rating, but would become more constructive on a pullback.”

Sanofi/Genzyme Deal: an Interesting Twist

It’s been more than nine months now since Sanofi Aventis (NYSE:SNY) has been dancing the big-money take-over dance with Genzyme (Nasdaq:GENZ). Until recently, Genzyme has rebuffed Sanofi’s offers, which led to an unsuccessful hostile takeover attempt by Sanofi for $69 per share back in October, 2010.

Why would is the world’s sixth largest drug maker so hot and heavy for Massachusetts-based Genzyme?��� The prime attraction seems to be Genzyme’s stable rare disease drugs.� This would add a new area of growth to Sanofi offerings.

After intense negotiations, it looks like a deal might be close, with closure rumored to be this week. �Both companies� boards met yesterday to supposedly hash out the final deal.� IF they are able to pull this off, the transaction will be among the largest merger of the last several years.

The latest offer, the one said to be likely accepted by analysts, includes an interesting twist.� This unique situation will be particularly attractive to small-cap investors since it will provide a low-cost way to directly play drug release success or failure.� Let me explain.� Sanofi has offered $74 per share for Genzyme.� This deal includes a little known instrument called a Contingent Value Right or CVR.� This CVR will trade on a stock exchange with its value being directly tied to the success or failure of one of Genzyme’s drugs known as either Campath or Lemtrada.� If this drug hits its sales goals, the CVR could be worth $5 or $6.� It is suppose to enter the market at around $2 per share.� This opens up a whole new angle for small-cap bio tech investors in these companies.

Sanofi is expected to release earnings on Wednesday.� Most analysts believe that the deal closure will be revealed prior to the earnings release.� However, given the unique factors inherent in this transaction, don’t be disappointed if you have to wait a little longer �� Good trading!

3 FTSE Dividends That Have Risen Today

LONDON -- On a day when the FTSE 100 (INDEX: ^FTSE  ) has been going nowhere -- it was a mere five points up on 5,456 by early afternoon -- we have had news of several companies raising their dividends by 10%. With Europe wobbling in a week that awaits a much-hyped powwow between the heads of the eurozone, which companies are powering up their payouts amid the pessimism?

High-tech printing
Domino Printing Sciences� (LSE: DNO.L  ) released interim figures today and upped its half-year dividend by 10%. The firm, which is involved in the high-tech upmarket end of the printing industry, told us that sales and profits were a little down, but that this was due to short-term economic uncertainty.

But the raised interim dividend of 7.24 pence per share is more than twice covered by underlying earnings per share of 17.2 pence, and the company ended the period with net cash on its books. If the full-year dividend is raised similarly, it should come to about 3.5%. The shares climbed 2% to 519 pence on the news.

Transport winner
Rail and bus operator�Stagecoach� (LSE: SGC.L  ) achieved a double-whammy today after its full-year results pushed the shares up by 5.4% (up 13.6 pence to 263 pence), and the firm announced a juicy 10% boost to its dividend payout.

After seeing adjusted EPS grow by nearly 7% to 25.4 pence in a year in which the company returned 340 million pounds in cash to shareholders, the dividend was lifted to a well-covered 7.8 pence per share. That�s a yield of around 3% on the current share price, and the shares have also put on about 12% this month, reversing a decline from February�s peak.

Travel and holidays might not make for the most robust sector at the moment, with�Thomas Cook�still struggling badly and competitor�TUI Travel�in a bit of a slump, so what are the best sectors to go for in these troubled times? The free Motley Fool report��Top Sectors for 2012��examines that very question.

Agricultural profits
The third 10% dividend rise today comes from�Wynnstay Group� (LSE: WYN.L  ) , which has announced a 2.85 pence interim payout after recording an 18% rise in half-year revenues and a 14% boost to pretax profits and EPS.

Wynnstay is someone you may not have heard of. The firm is mainly an agricultural supplier, but it also runs a chain of retail stores aimed at farmers and country dwellers. And it's been doing rather well: Since a 161 pence low point in early 2009, the shares have more than doubled to stand at 383 pence today. Share-price appreciation and a growing dividend -- what more could you ask for?

Finally, if you're in the market for other FTSE shares with dependable payouts, look no further than�"8 Shares Held By Britain's Super Investor." In this free report, we've analyzed the 20 billion pound portfolio of legendary fund manager Neil Woodford.�Click here now�to discover his favorite companies with high dividends and good growth potential. But hurry -- the report is free for a limited time only.

Are you looking to profit as a long-term investor? "Ten Steps To Making A Million In The Market" is the latest Motley Fool guide to help Britain invest. Better. We urge you to read the report today -- while it's still free and available.

Further Motley Fool investment opportunities:

  • 3 FTSE Shares Being Crushed Today
  • The Week Ahead: Stagecoach & Ocado
  • 8 Shares Held By Britain's Super Investor

7 Large Caps Armed With Cash And Analyst Backing

Many investors agree that large companies can offer stability and reliability not found among smaller alternatives. After all, rarely does a company rise to large cap status without finely tuning it's business model or building a solid management team. To find the most promising companies in the large-cap tier, today we looked for those holding large cash reserves. Besides signaling a sound financial footing, having cash on hand can do a variety of things for a company, be it for fueling large mergers or acquisitions, investing in innovative research and development, or continuing to corner the market of their expertise. To hone in on companies that truly are best in their class, we further focused our search to include only the companies that analysts have rated as 'Buy' or better, suggesting that now is the time to give these companies more time and research. If you're looking for large cap stocks that hold huge promise, you will probably like the list of companies we uncovered today.

The Current ratio is a liquidity ratio used to determine a company's financial health. The metric illustrates how easily a firm can pay back its short obligations all at once through current assets. A company that has a current ratio of one or less is generally a liquidity red flag. Now this doesn't mean the company will go bankrupt tomorrow, but it also doesn't bode well for the company, and may indicate that it could have an issue paying back upcoming obligations.

The Quick ratio measures a company's ability to use its cash or assets to extinguish its current liabilities immediately. Quick assets include assets that presumably can be converted to cash at close to their book values. A company with a Quick Ratio of less than 1 cannot currently pay back its current liabilities. The quick ratio is more conservative than the Current Ratio because it excludes inventory from current assets, since some companies have difficulty turning their inventory into cash. If short-term obligations need to be paid off immediately, sometimes the current ratio would overestimate a company's short-term financial strength. In general, the higher the ratio, the greater the company's liquidity (i.e., the better able to meet current obligations using liquid assets).

We first looked for large cap stocks. We next screened for businesses that have a substantial amount of cash on hand (Current Ratio>2)(Quick Ratio>2). We then looked for companies that analysts rate as "Buy" (2 < mean recommendation < 3). We did not screen out any sectors.

Do you think these large-cap stocks failed to price their value accurately? Use this list as a starting-off point for your own analysis.

1) Stryker Corp. (SYK)

:SectorHealthcare
:Industry Medical & AppliancesEquipment
Market:Cap$20.24B
:Beta0.88

Stryker Corp. has a Current Ratio of 4.83, a Quick Ratio of 3.97, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.10. The short interest was 1.74% as of 08/14/2012. Stryker Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a medical technology company. The company operates in three segments: Reconstructive, MedSurg, and Neurotechnology and Spine. The Reconstructive segment offers orthopaedic reconstructive (hip and knee) and trauma implant systems, as well as other related products. The MedSurg segment provides surgical equipment and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling and emergency medical equipment, reprocessed and remanufactured medical devices, and other medical device products. The Neurotechnology and Spine segment includes neurovascular products, spinal implant systems, and other related products. The company sells its products through local dealers and direct sales force to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities, as well as through third-party dealers and distributors primarily in the United States, Ireland, Germany, France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the Pacific region, and Latin America.

2) Altera Corp. (ALTR)

:SectorTechnology
:Industry - SemiconductorSpecialized
Market:Cap$11.75B
:Beta1.15

Altera Corp. has a Current Ratio of 6.17, a Quick Ratio of 5.92, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.30. The short interest was 2.22% as of 08/14/2012. Altera Corporation, a semiconductor company, designs, manufactures, and markets programmable logic devices (PLD), HardCopy application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) devices, pre-defined design building blocks, and associated development tools. The company's PLDs consist of field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and complex programmable logic devices (CPLDs), which are standard semiconductor integrated circuits or chips to perform desired logic functions in the electronic systems; and HardCopy structured ASIC devices that comprise transition customer designs from high-density FPGAs to low-cost non-programmable implementations for volume production. Its products primarily include Stratix series high-end, system-level FPGAs; Arria series mid-range transceiver and embedded processor equipped FPGAs; Cyclone series low-cost transceiver and embedded processor equipped FPGAs; MAX series CPLDs; and HardCopy ASICs. The company's products also comprise intellectual property cores in hard and soft forms that are pre-verified building blocks that execute system-level functions; and development tools consisting primarily of the Quartus II software for design entry, design compilation, design verification, and device programming.

3) Allergan Inc. (AGN)

:SectorHealthcare
:Industry Drug - ManufacturersOther
Market:Cap$26.32B
:Beta0.80

Allergan Inc. has a Current Ratio of 4.42, a Quick Ratio of 4.15, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.00. The short interest was 1.07% as of 08/14/2012. Allergan, Inc. operates as a multi-specialty healthcare company primarily in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company discovers, develops, and commercializes specialty pharmaceutical, biologics, medical device, and over-the-counter products for the ophthalmic, neurological, medical aesthetics, medical dermatological, breast aesthetics, obesity intervention, urological, and other specialty markets worldwide. It operates in two segments, Specialty Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices.

4) Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW)

:SectorHealthcare
:Industry Medical & AppliancesEquipment
Market:Cap$11.32B
:Beta0.52

Edwards Lifesciences Corp. has a Current Ratio of 4.50, a Quick Ratio of 3.56, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.10. The short interest was 2.78% as of 08/14/2012. Edwards Lifesciences Corporation provides products and technologies to treat advanced cardiovascular diseases or critically ill patients worldwide. The company offers heart valve therapy products, including tissue heart valves and repair products, which are used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve; and produces pericardial and porcine valves from biologically inert animal tissue sewn onto proprietary wire form stents. It also provides critical care products comprising hemodynamic monitoring systems to measure a patient's heart function in surgical and intensive care settings; Swan-Ganz line of pulmonary artery catheters and PreSep continuous venous oximetry catheters for measuring central venous oxygen saturation; PediaSat oximetry catheters for children; VolumeView sensor-catheters; and FloTrac continuous cardiac output monitoring system, a minimally invasive cardiac monitoring technology for goal-directed fluid optimization. In addition, the company offers cardiac surgery system products, such as ThruPort minimal incision valve surgery platform that enables surgeons to perform intricate procedures through small incisions and tailor procedures; cannulae, which are used during cardiac surgery in venous drainage, aortic perfusion, venting, and cardioplegia delivery; embolic protection devices; and minimally invasive surgery products.

5) Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH)

:SectorHealthcare
:Industry Medical & AppliancesEquipment
Market:Cap$10.72B
:Beta0.99

Zimmer Holdings, Inc. has a Current Ratio of 5.09, a Quick Ratio of 3.69, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.40. The short interest was 2.56% as of 08/14/2012. Zimmer Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of orthopedic reconstructive devices, spinal and trauma devices, dental implants, and related surgical products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers orthopedic reconstructive devices that restore function lost due to disease or trauma in joints such as knees, hips, shoulders, and elbows; dental reconstructive implants, which restore function and aesthetics in patients who have lost teeth due to trauma or disease; spinal devices that are utilized by orthopedic surgeons and neurosurgeons in the treatment of degenerative diseases, deformities, and trauma in various regions of the spine; and trauma devices used primarily to reattach or stabilize damaged bone and tissue to support the body's natural healing process. It also provides surgical products comprising surgical supplies and instruments designed to aid in orthopedic surgical procedures and post-operation rehabilitation.

6) Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)

:SectorTechnology
:Industry - Semiconductor IntegratedCircuits
Market:Cap$12.09B
:Beta1.09

Analog Devices Inc. has a Current Ratio of 8.10, a Quick Ratio of 7.55, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.10. The short interest was 2.53% as of 08/14/2012. Analog Devices, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits (ICS) used in industrial, automotive, consumer, and communication applications. The company's signal processing products involve in converting, conditioning, and processing real-world phenomena, such as temperature, pressure, sound, light, speed, and motion into electrical signals. Its product range includes data converters, amplifiers and linear products, radio frequency ICs, power management products, sensors based on micro-electro mechanical systems technology and other sensors, and processing products.

7) Corning Inc. (GLW)

:SectorTechnology
:Industry DiversifiedElectronics
Market:Cap$17.15B
:Beta1.39

Corning Inc. has a Current Ratio of 4.96, a Quick Ratio of 4.43, and a Analysts' Rating of 2.30. The short interest was 1.74% as of 08/14/2012. Corning Incorporated produces specialty glasses, ceramics, and related materials worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Display Technologies, Telecommunications, Environmental Technologies, Specialty Materials, and Life Sciences. The Display Technologies segment manufactures glass substrates for liquid crystal displays (LCDs) for notebook computers, flat panel desktop monitors, and LCD televisions. The Telecommunications segment produces optical fiber and cable, and hardware and equipment products, including cable assemblies, fiber optic hardware, fiber optic connectors, optical components and couplers, closures and pedestals, splice and test equipment, and other accessories for optical connectivity to the telecommunications industry.

*Company profiles were sourced from Google Finance and Yahoo Finance. Financial data was sourced from Finviz.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Where Is Europe Taking the Global Economy?

All the news coming out of Europe for the last two weeks has roiled global currency and equities markets and in many ways it’s starting to feel like 2008 all over again.

Here are some things we need to pay attention to:

  • The “Ted Spread,” the difference between the interest rates of short term U.S. T Bills and interbank loans is rising, which indicates increasing perceived credit risk in the global economy.
  • LIBOR, the London Interbank Borrowing Rate, is rising, which indicates a growing reluctance to lend and increasing worry about counterparty risk between banks.
  • The Bank of Spain has been making the news lately, ordering Spanish banks to raise their loan reserves against potential real estate losses from a crumbling real estate market.
  • The Bank of Spain took over CajaSur, a regional bank on May 22 and several other Spanish banks have either merged or are in discussions to do so.
  • The Greeks are already discussing potential modifications to their planned austerity programs.
  • The Euro remains under intense pressure.
  • The equity markets of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are all in bear markets.
  • So as one looks across the global landscape, we see growing banking and credit strains in Europe, continued pressure on the Euro and a lack of leadership regarding what really needs to be done to resolve this situation.

    All of this points to potential lower growth and continued problems that could easily spread around the world.

    The only period in recent history comparable to what we’re seeing today is “The Great Depression,” and its stock market action is eerily similar to today’s in many ways.

    click to enlarge

    chart courtesy of Washington’s Blog

    One of the fine blogs I read is Washington’s Blog, and in a recent article they published this chart from The Great Depression and pointed out that the big, second leg down in the Dow was triggered by a credit crunch and bank failures in Europe.

    Fast forward to today and we have had our initial crash, an approximately 60% recovery and now see the potential for a growing credit crunch in Europe.

    I’m certainly not predicting a second crash as many of the ultra-bears are, however, today’s situation bears an eerie resemblance to the 1930s and my simple conclusion is that we’re definitely not out of the woods yet by any means. The problems in Europe and with the Euro won’t be resolved overnight and so we can expect continued volatility and uncertainty in the days and weeks ahead. If Europe doesn’t resolve its problems, this could have ominous implications, to say the least, for the global economy.

    Disclosure: Long EEV, YXI, SKF, PSQ, EFZ, VXX and S&P 500 put options

    Thursday, August 30, 2012

    Cyber Attack Defense a New Growth Industry? 5 Stocks to Watch

    Cyber attacks against Google (GOOG) have recently been in the news. Yahoo (YHOO) and other companies have been attacked, as well. Microsoft (MSFT), in turn, has gone to court to attack a network of malicious botnets.

    With all this activity in the cyber security arena, it is worth investigating which companies are at the forefront of the battle against hackers. With a wave of concern over hacking attempts, there should be some good investment candidates in the network security sector.

    Background --

    When I talk about security I'm talking about intrusion detection and protection. An intrusion-prevention system (IPS) is an inline security device that performs deep-packet inspection to identify and block malicious traffic. IPSs are considered an improvement over intrusion-detection systems (IDS), which are passive devices that simply identify an attack but take no action to block it. IPSs are designed to respond in real time to attacks by dropping data packets deemed malicious.

    There several ways that intrusion detection and prevention is accomplished:

    • Host Intrusion Detection and Prevention: Businesses add these systems to individual critical hosts or devices residing on the network. This type of IDPS monitors both inbound and outbound packets — but only through the device with which it is associated.
    • Signature-Based Intrusion and Prevention: This type of IDPS is useful for detecting viruses and other types of malware. The product compares all of the packets that flow through it with a database of known threats. Like anti-malware offerings, a signature-based IDPS is only as good as the information it uses, meaning that technology is vulnerable to "zero day" security events. On the other hand, a signature-based IDPS is a very reliable way of defending a network against known threats, which constitute the majority of network perils.
    • Anomaly-Based Intrusion and Prevention: One could describe this kind of IDPS as being naturally suspicious. That's because an anomaly-based IDPS is always looking for something out of the ordinary. The system continuously scrutinizes network traffic and compares it against an established baseline. Any detected deviations from "normal" performance in terms of bandwidth use, ports accessed or devices connected will cause the IDPS to issue an alert and take proactive steps to ensure the network's health. This type of firewall can be particularly effective in helping business cope with DDoS (distributed denial of service) attacks, when large numbers of computers are recruited to join together and bring down a Web site.

    State of the industry --

    There were a good number of pure play companies in the cyber security space in years past. Over time, however, many of the companies were acquired or combined with each other. Today, we see that Cisco (CSCO) has absorbed Entercept, Wheel Group and Air Force. IBM (IBM) has acquired Internet Security Systems, also known as ISS. Enterasys now owns Network Security Wizards. Symantec (SYMC) acquired Axent, provider of the Net Prowler product. Juniper (JNPR), Tivoli and Computer Associates have all bought various IDPS companies. The upshot of all this acquisition activity is that IDPS has become just a small part of some very large companies.

    So who's left? In the table below, I present five companies that are still independent, publicly traded and reasonably pure plays in the IDPS sector.

    SonicWALL Check Point Software Technologies Fortinet Sourcefire Radware
    SNWL CHKP FTNT FIRE RDWR
    Valuation Measures
    Market Cap 483.24M 7.06B 1.14B 724.23M 341.93M
    Trailing P/E 37.59 20.03 21.83 84.7 N/A
    Forward P/E 18.18 13.66 46.08 38.36 22.64
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.49 1.34 3.06 2.27 0.81
    Price/Sales (ttm): 2.37 7.59 4.47 6.93 3.15
    Price/Book (mrq): 1.58 3.03 7.91 5.58 2.28
    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 13.317 12.681 27.714 55.626 -275.185
    Profitability
    Profit Margin (ttm): 6.56% 38.67% 23.87% 8.58% -5.45%
    Operating Margin (ttm): 8.26% 45.88% 10.05% 8.01% -6.52%
    Income Statement
    Revenue Per Share (ttm): 3.72 4.415 9.574 3.91 5.768
    Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): -0.20% 25.10% 19.70% 37.20% 29.10%
    Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.24 1.69 0.78 0.32 -0.31
    Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 43.60% 26.70% 453.20% 193.90% N/A
    Balance Sheet
    Total Cash (mrq): 200.15M 884.00M 260.31M 53.07M 59.09M
    Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.69 4.228 3.897 1.968 3.129
    Cash Flow Statement
    Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 35.85M 548.69M 62.32M 20.16M N/A
    Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 10.82M 430.93M 26.37M -21.91M N/A

    The data above is from Yahoo! Finance as of Friday, March 5. It shows that all but one of these companies is profitable and none of them are particularly cheap.

    Here is a quick look at each company.

    Cramer: Put Wells Fargo in Charge of Housing

    Just put Wells Fargo(WFC) in charge of housing. Given how bad the Case-Shiller numbers are -- totally out of sync with the rest of the economy -- and given how well Wells Fargo has handled its mortgage problems, it wouldn't be such a bad idea to just have Wells design and execute the next federal program for housing relief. I say next, because from all accounts this new one is looking stillborn like the rest of them.I am not being facetious here. Think of this mortgage industry. Wells has a $1.8 trillion portfolio. It handles 26% of originations. It has had a remarkable decline in the total delinquency and foreclosure rate for residential mortgages in the last year, from 8.96% to 7.63%. That's a staggering level of improvement, especially when you consider the portfolio of terrible mortgages it got from its Wachovia acquisition, including a horrid top-of-the-market basket of mortgages from Wachovia's 2006 purchase of Golden West.Aside from the fact that it is hard to imagine anyone doing worse than the government, think about the way Wells gas gone about getting this rate down. First, it created 40 workshops and 27 home preservation centers. We can sneer at these as window-dressing, but consider that these helped put into place 716,000 active trial or completed mortgage modifications, which, judging by the aggregate numbers, can't have nearly the recidivist rate that the government's programs have had.Further, Wells has forgiven $4 billion of principal with its tattered "Pick-a-Pay" portfolio of little-to-no-money-down loans that it inherited from Wachovia. One-third of the total loans in that portfolio have been modified.Plus we know that Wells Fargo is a better lender than most, as its delinquency rate is 400 basis points lower than industry average, excluding Wells (important to mention "excluding," because Wells pulls down the averages so much!).For all of this, Wells receives very little attention, since the vast majority of the market's focus is on Bank of America's(BAC) incredibly bad mortgages, in part due to Countrywide.I think it is time for the government to rethink its tactics here. By outsourcing this process to Wells it would give up nothing and turn over this business to a bank that has been a better actor than most -- not saying all. More important, it would be like turning the process over to someone who knows what a bad loan looks like, who knows what is about to go bad and who knows how to fix the situation. I am sure there are plenty of people out there who think this is all fanciful. But this government outsources many of the military functions, for heaven's sake, and that involves lives, not money. Wells could do a better job, and this crisis, which remains at the heart of the American recovery problem, could at least be considered on the right track after so many botched attempts to get it right.At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in securities mentioned. >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

    Jim Cramer Is Worth 39 Cents A Share

    Love him or hate him, Jim Cramer is one of most well-known personalities in the financial world. His comments can cause stocks to post substantial moves, especially in smaller equities. The one company that he has been unable to move in the right direction ironically is the one he founded, TheStreet.com (TST). However, that could change in the near future and deep value and turnaround investors should take note.

    6 reasons TheStreet will reward investors at $1.47 a share:

  • Roughly 75% of the company's market capitalization is represented by the $1.08 a share in net cash on its balance sheet, an investor is basically getting the rest of the company for 39 cents.
  • Even though the company has negative net income, the company has posted positive operating cash flow the past three completed fiscal years.
  • The company has brought in a new CEO and board members with extensive experience running successful digital media companies. In addition, a new CTO has been hired and Stephanie Link is an increasingly common presence at CNBC, giving TheStreet a second personality to drive awareness of the site.
  • The stock has a robust dividend yield of over 6%.
  • TST is selling for just 57% of book value and under 1 time annual revenues (84%).
  • Only one analyst covers the stock, but has a price target of $4 a share on the shares. The stock was over $3 a share less than a year ago.
  • Disclosure: I am long TST.

    1 Dividend to Buy and 1 Dividend to Sell for 2012

    The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which Austin Smith, consumer goods editor and analyst, and Brendan Byrnes, industrials editor and analyst, discuss topics across the investing world.

    In today's edition, the guys talk about one dividend to buy and one dividend to sell in 2012. Austin likes SUPERVALU and Brendan dislikes R.R. Donnelley.

    Please enable Javascript to view this video.

    If you're interested in SUPERVALU or R.R. Donnelley on your quest for great dividend-paying stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special FREE report outlining our 11 favorite dependable, dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 11 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your complimentary copy today at no cost! Just click here to discover the winners we've picked.

    Average 401(k) Contribution Increased in 2011: Fidelity

    The average employee contribution to a 401(k) plan rose slightly in 2011, Fidelity Investments reported Thursday. The average contribution increased to $5,750, up from $5,680, due to participants electing an average 8% deferral rate, according to Fidelity.

    “It’s very encouraging that savings levels actually held up during the intense market volatility of last year and a sluggish economic environment,” James MacDonald, president of workplace investing for Fidelity Investments, said in a statement. “Increases in savings levels, however small, can make a significant impact over time.”

    Fidelity surveyed over 11 million 401(k) participants in Fidelity plans for the report.

    Employers are contributing more too. Eighty-two percent of workers who actively participate in their plan received a contribution from their employer, up from 79% in 2010. The average employer contribution rose to $3,270 from $3,170.

    Target-date funds did their part to improve diversification and asset allocation, especially among young workers. One-quarter of all participants invested all of their 401(k) assets in a TDF. The report found the majority of plans (98%) offer age-based TDFs; still, among people who declined to invest in their age-appropriate TDF and had been in the plan for 10 years, 62% had portfolios that underperformed the appropriate TDF.

    Fidelity asked survey respondents if they transferred money from one investment to another in 2011 and found just 10% had done so. “Much of the reduction in exchanges may be attributed to the increased use of target date funds and an appreciation of a long-term, steady approach to retirement saving,” according to the report. The past few quarters, Fidelity noted, has seen investors make these exchanges by moving away from equities into short-term, stable value and fixed income investments. 

    Wednesday, August 29, 2012

    Two More AlphaDEX ETFs Begin Trading

    First Trust launched two more international AlphaDEX ETFs this week, on the heels of the debut of seven country-specific funds that employ the proprietary stock selection methodology [see AlphaDEX ETFdb Portfolio]. The new ETFs will offer broad exposure to emerging and developed markets outside the U.S., focusing specifically on small cap stocks in those segments:

    • Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund (FEMS)
    • Developed Markets ex-U.S. Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund (FDTS)

    Last year, First Trust debuted ETFs targeting these same markets that generally focus on larger companies. The First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX (FEM) has assets of about $43 million, while the Developed Markets ex-U.S. AlphaDEX Fund (FDT) has about $33 million. Both of those ETFs started trading in April 2011.

    Under The Hood

    FEMS is linked to the Defined Emerging Markets Small Cap Index, a benchmark that selects small cap emerging markets stocks based on their score on a variety of value and growth metrics. Currently, the underlying index has a tilt towards emerging Asian economies; China (28%) and Taiwan (25%) make up the largest individual country allocations. Also receiving allocations of more than 5% in the portfolio are Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia, and Malaysia [see FEMS Fact Sheet].

    From a sector perspective, FEMS maintains a nice balance. Five sectors–consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, technology, and materials–receive an allocation between 15% and 20% in the underlying index. The smallest weights are afforded to telecoms and health care; those two sectors make up less than 3% of assets.

    FDTS is linked to the Defined Developed Markets Ex-US Small Cap Index, a benchmark that includes almost 400 small cap stocks from a number of developed markets outside the U.S. (but including Canada). The median market cap for the index underlying this ETF is just $600 million; by comparison, FDT has a median market cap of about $4.5 billion.

    This ETF also has an Asian tilt; FDTS makes its largest country allocations to Japan (26%), Hong Kong (13%), and South Korea (13%). Other countries afforded weights of 5% or more include Canada, the UK, and France. FDTS gives the largest sector allocation to financials (22%), followed by industrials (16%) and consumer discretionaries (15%). Towards the underweight end of the spectrum are health care (2%) and telecom (3%) [see FDTS Fact Sheet].

    Both of the new ETFs will charge an expense ratio of 0.80%. By comparison, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF (EWX) charges 0.65%. The Schwab International Small Cap Equity ETF (SCHC) charges just 0.35%.

    Has Encana Become the Perfect Stock?

    Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

    One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Encana (NYSE: ECA  ) fits the bill.

    The quest for perfection
    Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

    • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
    • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
    • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
    • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
    • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
    • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

    With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Encana.

    Factor

    What We Want to See

    Actual

    Pass or Fail?

    Growth 5-year annual revenue growth > 15% (14.2%) Fail
    1-year revenue growth > 12% (26.7%) Fail
    Margins Gross margin > 35% 60.8% Pass
    Net margin > 15% 3.1% Fail
    Balance sheet Debt to equity < 50% 52.2% Fail
    Current ratio > 1.3 0.81 Fail
    Opportunities Return on equity > 15% 1.4% Fail
    Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 169.69 Fail
    Dividends Current yield > 2% 4.1% Pass
    5-year dividend growth > 10% 18% Pass
    Total score 3 out of 10

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

    Since last year, Encana has fallen from grace, losing five full points. Drops in net margins, contracting sales, and a weakening balance sheet have all weighed on the energy company over the past year.

    Like peers EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG  ) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN  ) , Encana is one of many companies that have struggled in the weak natural gas industry. New finds have boosted production, pushing prices into the doldrums and hurting Encana's prospects. Yet unlike rivals Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) and SandRidge (NYSE: SD  ) , which have moved away from natural gas toward the more lucrative oil market, Encana doubled down by divesting itself of its oil business two years ago to focus exclusively on natural gas.

    Now, Encana has continued its asset purge. By selling properties in North Texas, Colorado, and British Columbia recently to buyers such as Enbridge (NYSE: ENB  ) , Encana has raised cash to help deal with its debt load. The newly missing pieces of Encana's puzzle help explain the massive drop in revenue.

    In its most recent quarter, though, Encana managed to double its operating earnings and boost its production by 6%, in line with its own internal targets. Going forward, Encana hopes to cash in on the growing interest in gas liquids, which are more lucrative than regular natural gas. Even if it's successful, the company has a long way to go to return to the near perfection it enjoyed not long ago.

    Keep searching
    No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

    Click here to add Encana to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

    Finding the perfect stock is only one piece of a successful investment strategy. Get the big picture by taking a look at our "13 Steps to Investing Foolishly."

    The Optimistic View Of Europe

    Forget about the alligators. Let's talk about draining the swamp. There is a way out of this quagmire for Europe. Ken Rogoff, in an interview with Der Spiegel, believes that political integration (or a "United States of Europe") is closer than anyone expects:

    SPIEGEL: Do you honestly believe that the countries in the euro zone can bring themselves to hand over that much more power to Brussels?

    Rogoff: The terrible thing is that few countries in Europe seem genuinely prepared for that. Those politicians who know what is needed keep quiet, fearing opposition from the voters. But the pressure of this crisis will create a momentum whose scope and impact we cannot yet imagine. At the end of the day, the United States of Europe may well come about a lot quicker than many would have thought.

    SPIEGEL: With all respect to your optimism, the Europeans are unlikely to play along with that. The popular opinion in most member states is that Europe has far too much power, not too little.

    Rogoff: Europe is in an interim stage, quite similar to that in late 18th century America. The ratification of the United States constitution in 1788 was preceded by 12 years of a loose confederation, which sometimes worked but usually didn't. Europe is in a similar situation today. States are like people, it is difficult to sustain a stable half-marriage; either you go for it or you forget it.

    Much of the latest eurozone crisis stems from the fact that there was economic integration without political integration. Rogoff believes that the European elite within the Community will take this latest crisis to push for greater integration.

    This is all part of the Grand Plan that I wrote about before. Mario Draghi, in an interview with the WSJ, said that the steps include:

  • Austerity, defined as lower government expenditures and lower taxes; followed by
  • Structural reform, defined as the elimination of the European social model.
  • In the meantime, the ECB stands ready to provide the necessary tonic (such as LTRO) to smooth the transition as long as the eurozone was moving in the right direction. Greater European integration, as per Rogoff, would be one of those steps.

    The optimist in me says that if the Europeans manage to pull this off, it will result in a new Renaissance for the EU and the global economy. The World Bank warned this week that China may be at risk of a middle-income trap as the supply cheap labor, which was the primary source of competitive advantage, diminishes. Were Chinese growth were to slow and the slack were to be taken up by a surge in Europe in the next decade, it would be a source of welcome global rebalancing.

    Key risks

    The caveat, of course, is that everything has to go right. For example, Bruce Krasting pointed out that some hospitals in the PIGS countries have not paid their drug bills for up to three years and the outstanding bills amount to €12-15 billion. Stories like these suggest that there are liabilities out there beyond sovereign debt as represented by the bond market that the market isn't very aware of. How much and can the Powers That Be skirt these potholes as they come up? I don't know.

    The greatest political challenge to the Grand Plan of austerity, structural reform and political integration is the discontent on the Street. Consider this chart of European youth unemployment. Note how it is going up everywhere except for Germany.

    We have a map showing how to get out of the swamp. Can the European elites steer the EU out? I am not sure, but not all is lost. Just remember how Thatcher's reforms revitalized Britain. Is the current situation on the Continent very much different from the UK in the early 1980's?

    I remain cautiously optimistic longer term. Consider the judgment of the markets. If Europe is in such trouble, then why has the EURUSD exchange rate been rallying?

    Disclaimer: Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

    None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

    Wait for the Dip, Then Buy the Dow

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also known as DJIA or DJ-30, has recently broken past the 12,000 mark. With that in mind, I thought it would be a good time to take a closer look at the Dow, to see where we are at and where we might be headed.

    Fundamentally, I see two primary factors worth paying attention to:

    1. Since the onset of the second round of quantitative easing, we’ve seen U.S. stock prices rise sharply. The FOMC’s recent statement suggesting QE efforts will continue supports further bullishness.

    2. For the past 10 years, the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities have, for the most part, been negatively correlated. The U.S. dollar index is currently below 78. So long as it remains below 82, I think the case for dollar bearishness remains solid, which would be bullish for U.S. equities if the correlation persists.

    Now, let’s take a look at the charts.

    The weekly chart shows a bottom trendline sitting near 11,000, where the 50 MA is as well. We are seeing volume divergence, but not MACD divergence, as MACD continues to rise with price. As we have seen low volume rallies since the equities reached their low in April of 2009, I personally am more interested in indicator divergence than volume divergence in light of current market conditions for U.S. equities.

    Click to enlarge

    In light of the fundamental factors and the lack of divergence, I’m not sure we’ll get a pullback to 11,000. To get an idea of other support areas, let’s take a look at the daily chart.

    The daily chart, shown below, reveals a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent lows in December 2010 and the 50 MA sitting near the 11,500 mark. There is also no clear divergence here; MACD is rising, and volume seems to be holding fairly constant while price rises.

    Click to enlarge

    Abbott Laboratories: A Good Dividend Stock To Buy At $48-$52

    Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is engaged in discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of diversified line of healthcare products. It has four segments: Pharmaceutical Products, which include a line of adult and pediatric pharmaceuticals manufactured, marketed, and sold directly to wholesalers and healthcare facilities; Diagnostic Products, which include a line of diagnostic systems and tests manufactured, marketed, and sold to hospitals and commercial laboratories; Nutritional Products, which include a line of pediatric and adult nutritional products, and Vascular Products, which include a line of coronary, endovascular, and vessel closure devices for the treatment of vascular disease. Abbott Laboratories is a dividend aristocrat that has raised its dividend for 39 consecutive years.

    A 10-year summary of Sales, Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT), Earnings per share (EPS), yearly high and low stock price, corresponding high and low P/E (calculated by dividing the high and low price by the EPS for the year), and average P/E (average of high and low P/E) is shown below.

    Key 10-year data for Abbott Laboratories

    Our Analysts Close Up Shop for the Year With These 5 Stocks

    The first full calendar year of our Rising Star portfolios is coming to an end. The results for some of our best performers have been encouraging, as Alyce Lomax's socially responsible portfolio and Jason Moser's motley portfolio are beating the market by 10.4 and 4.6 percentage points, respectively.

    Below, I'm highlighting five of the picks our analysts have made over the past two weeks. Add any of these companies to your watchlist, and you'll stay on top of all the latest news. Read to the end, and I'll offer you access to The Motley Fool's top stock for 2012.

    Zipcar (Nasdaq: ZIP  )
    Fool Dave Meier has many reasons to tap Zipcar for his Trends and Trades portfolio. For starters, he sees Zipcar following the same blueprint Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) did a decade ago: "Rather than owning a movie, Netflix members pay a fee for access to one on DVD. Zipcar members, known as Zipsters, do the same with cars, paying a membership and a usage fee as well." Since you can't "stream" your car yet, the analogy need not extend to Netflix's recent blunders, either.

    Dave is also excited about the partnerships the company has in place with Ford (NYSE: F  ) to provide cars on college campuses. All in all, Dave believes that Zipcar could grow to have a $2 billion to $3 billion market cap in five years. That would represent an appreciation in price between 250% and 450%.

    • Add Zipcar to My Watchlist.

    TripAdvisor (Nasdaq: TRIP  )
    A guru of special situations, Fool Jim Royal believes TripAdvisor offers investors a unique opportunity. Jim sees the spinoff of TripAdvisor from parent company Expedia as an excellent opportunity to cash in on two things.

    First, spinoffs usually have a way of unlocking value. With TripAdvisor now free of its slower-growing parent, investors can get in on the real growth story. Additionally, Jim bought shares before the company joined the S&P 500, which caused massive amounts of shares to be purchased for index funds.

    • Add TripAdvisor to My Watchlist.

    Dillard's (NYSE: DDS  )
    Rising Star Jim Mueller knows his picks won't win any beauty pageants, and that's just the way he likes it in his messed-up-expectations portfolio. That's why he has no problem calling on Dillard's, a brick-and-mortar retailer from Arkansas.

    As Jim details, the company has done a great job of improving its metrics since flirting with bankruptcy during the height of the recession. It has expanded gross margins by 540 basis points, and where it was once losing 2.5% of its revenue two years ago, the company is now keeping 6.8% as profit today. That's a significant turnaround.

    Better yet, the company's share buyback plan has reduced the number of shares outstanding by 30% -- which is music to shareholders' ears. In the end, Jim just doesn't think the market is showing enough respect for these moves.

    • Add Dillard's to My Watchlist.

    Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS  )
    Jim wasn't the only one focusing on retailers during the holiday season. Fellow Fool Jason Moser added shares of Dick's Sporting Goods to his portfolio as well. Jason sees three big reasons to buy shares at today's prices.

    First, there's lots of room for growth, especially on the West Coast; the company plans on adding 400 stores in the coming years. Second, and along the same lines, Jason believes that the sporting goods market is huge and ripe for Dick's to take more market share. And finally, Jason loves how Dick's has given customers a unique experience by dividing up their store into many specialty stores that focus on different interests.

    • Add Dick's�Sporting�Goods to My Watchlist.

    Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL  )
    Our final Rising Star pick comes from Jeremy Myers, who picked commercial real estate company Jones Lang LaSalle. Jeremy is impressed with the company's global reach, as multinational corporations need to find specialists like JLL to set up offices on several continents. And what's more, they are able to offer individualized solutions to companies as consultants as well.

    Jeremy thinks that as this cyclical industry continues to improve, JLL's bottom line will also. He sees shares are being worth as much as $80, which is 33% higher than where shares sit now.

    • Add Jones�Lang�LaSalle to My Watchlist.

    Our top pick for 2012
    All five of these picks are worthy of your consideration -- and a spot on your watchlist. But if you'd like to find out about the Fool's consensus pick for the top performer in 2012, check out our newest special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." Inside the report, our analysts detail a company being called the "Costco of Latin America." I encourage you to get a copy of the report today; it's absolutely free!

    Tuesday, August 28, 2012

    3 Stocks to Watch Right Now

    The following video is from this week's Motley Fool Money radio show, with Chris Hill, Ron Gross, James Early, and Joe Magyer. In this segment, the guys three stocks on their radar and share why investors should keep an eye on Quality Systems, Douglas Dynamics, and LinkedIn.

    While Douglas Dynamics pays a dividend, shares aren't exactly trading at a steep discount. Investors looking for dividend-paying stocks trading at bargain prices should check out The Motley Fool's free report "2 Dirt Cheap Stocks With HUGE Dividends." You can get analysis of a market leader in payment systems and a high-yielding energy company by accessing this report. It won't be available forever, so click here -- it's free.

    Please enable Javascript to view this video.

    Top Stocks For 2012-2-13-14

    Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) announced that it completed its previously announced sale of approximately 50,000 acres of timberland in Georgia and Alabama for $75 million to Plum Creek Timber Company, Inc. Forestar reserved mineral rights and retained an option to acquire the mitigation rights to approximately 1,000 acres for use in mitigation banks.

    Forestar Group Inc. operates in three business segments: real estate, mineral resources and fiber resources. At the end of the second quarter 2011, the real estate segment owns directly or through ventures over 217,000 acres of real estate located in nine states and twelve markets in the U.S.

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (CRWE)

    Crown Equity Holdings Incorporated - symbol CRWE - reported that it has entered into a 50/50 joint venture agreement to deploy VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) technology delivering voice, video and data services to residential and commercial customers.

    The joint venture company is Crown Tele Services Incorporated, which looks forward to building an outstanding team to develop and deliver voice and video over IP services globally.

    According to IBISWorld Industry Reports, Digital voice will be the fastest growing U.S. industry in the next five years. Voice over Internet Protocol leads the list of the ten most dynamic industries with revenue in 2010 of nearly $12.5 billion dollars, growth 2000 - 2010 of 194% and forecast growth 2010 - 2016 of 17.6%

    VoIP industry is fast augmenting and hence it may assure a definite hike in the revenue generation to any organization those steps into this field.

    For more information about Crown Tele Services Incorporated, visit crownteleservices.com

    Internet marketing has many advantages over traditional marketing venues. For example, Internet marketing (or web marketing) is far less expensive than traditional marketing. Many people invest in Internet marketing because they know they will reap the benefits of a high return on investment. This is especially true when businesses take advantage of email marketing campaigns.

    Email marketing and email advertising is comprehensive web marketing tools that are essential elements of any effective Internet marketing strategy. Companies can use email marketing and email advertising to reach a wider audience than traditional advertising in print or in mass media.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc’s selection of Core Link reflects recent diversification beyond CRWE’s original charter as a provider of services and knowledge to small business owners taking their own companies public. In addition to these services, Crown Equity Holdings Inc has transitioned into a multifaceted media organization that publishes clients’ news online; sells advertising adjacent with its digital network targeted at a high-income audience; designs, hosts and maintains websites; produces marketing videos from concept to final product; crafts press releases and articles for maximum SEO; develops email campaigns; and forges branding campaigns to bolster client company images.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. together with its digital network currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

    For more information, visit http://www.crownequityholdings.com

    C&J Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE:CJES) will host its quarterly conference call on Thursday, September 1, 2011, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time to discuss its second quarter 2011 financial and operating results. Earnings are expected to be released after the market closes on Wednesday, August 31, 2011.

    C&J Energy Services, Inc., through its wholly-owned subsidiary, C&J Spec-Rent Services, Inc., provides specialty equipment services for oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma regions of the United States.

    Alere Inc. (NYSE:ALR), a global leader in enabling individuals to take charge of their health at home through the merger of rapid diagnostics and health management, announced that it has made additional open market purchases of 240,000 shares of Axis-Shield stock, bringing its total current ownership position to 3,444,995 shares, or approximately 6.89%, of Axis-Shield’s issued and outstanding ordinary share capital. The additional shares were purchased at a price per share of 460.00 pence. On August 5, Alere announced an offer to acquire all of the issued and to be issued share capital of Axis-Shield, whose shares are traded on the main market of the London Stock Exchange and on the Oslo Bors, for 460 pence per share.

    By developing new capabilities in near-patient diagnosis, monitoring and health management, Alere enables individuals to take charge of improving their health and quality of life at home.

    Top Stocks For 6/6/2012-4

    National Health Partners, Inc. (NHPR)

    National Health Partners, Inc. is a national healthcare savings organization that provides discount healthcare membership programs to uninsured and underinsured people through a national healthcare savings network called “CARExpress.” CARExpress is one of the largest networks of hospitals, doctors, dentists, pharmacists and other healthcare providers in the country and is comprised of over 1,000,000 medical professionals that belong to such PPOs as CareMark and Aetna.

    The problems with health care are affecting many Americans: the uninsured and insured, the unemployed and working, children and retirees, single individuals and families. From lack of access to preventative care and the high cost of medical treatment, there are many health care problems facing Americans. One of the biggest and most costly aspects of health care is the treatment of chronic diseases. It will be hard to make insurance affordable without changing how chronic disease is treated.

    National Health Partners, Inc. recently announced that it has signed a new agreement with a major marketing company that will significantly enhance the growth of its CARExpress membership base.

    According to the Company, this deal, in combination with the previous partnership with Xpress Healthcare, will enable the company to build its membership base exponentially, initially generating in excess of an additional 2,000 new members per month. The new campaign is set to launch within the next few weeks and will provide a material positive impact on the company’s 2nd quarter sales.

    National Health Partners anticipate that this new marketing agreement will provide a major impact on their overall sales not only for the 2nd quarter, but more importantly for the year. They look forward to building on the profits that they anticipate generating in 2011 that will be driven by substantial growth in sales of their CARExpress health discount programs. The combination of their substantial growth with their low price-to-equity ratio should reflect itself in the price of their stock over the coming months.

    For more information about National Health Partners, Inc visit its website www.nationalhealthpartners.com

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (CRWE)

    With the growth of information on the internet and the amount of time people spend on it, which has in turn generated a new market for internet advertising. Some of the wealthiest companies in the world have made sure that they get a piece of the internet marketing pie, and for a good reason.

    Because of the targeted nature of internet advertising and the ability to track the effectiveness of ads, conversion rates from internet advertising is typically much better than traditional mediums.

    One more benefit is that, since the internet spans the globe, pockets of your target market scattered around the world can all be targeted at once, rather than trying to find different publications, radio stations and television stations that cater to a particular geographical area.

    On the whole, internet advertising can be a great way to get the word out there about your service or product in a cost-effective, efficient way.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness. There are several advantages to internet marketing over traditional marketing. There is a wide variety of advertising venues you can perform, as opposed to the normal ways of advertising. Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. together with its digital network currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers.

    CRWE’s digital network is designed, on behalf of its clients, to bring together targeted high-income audiences and advertisers on its financial websites that include, among others, DrStockPick.com, PennyOmega.com, BestOtc.com, CRWEFinance.com, CRWESelect.com, CRWEPicks.com and StockHotTips.com.

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. has creative resources to dramatically enhance one’s company’s corporate identity with its in-house advertising and name-branding services. This includes creating, designing, implementing logos, and other strategies which rapidly increase one’s company’s credibility and value. As many people know, brand strength is a good indicator of the strength of a company and its financial value.

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc.’s mission is to profitably disseminate a variety of information as a worldwide online media publisher in an environment that has a positive effect.

    For more information about Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. visit its website
    http://www.crownequityholdings.com

    SPX Corporation (NYSE:SPW) announced that Christopher J. Kearney, Chairman, President and CEO, will present at the Electrical Products Group Conference in Longboat Key, Fla., on Monday, May 16, 2011 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern time. SPX Chief Financial Officer Patrick O’Leary will also attend and participate in the question and answer session that will immediately follow Kearney’s presentation. A live webcast of the presentation and related materials will be posted to the Investor Relations section of SPX’s website (www.spx.com). The audio replay will be accessible on the website through May 30, 2011.

    SPX Corporation provides flow technology products, test and measurement products, thermal equipment and services, and industrial products and services worldwide.

    STR Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:STRI) announced financial and operating performance for the first quarter ended March 31, 2011. Consolidated net sales increased 16.5% to $92.9 million, from $79.8 million in the first quarter of 2010. Solar segment net sales increased 24.0% to $68.0 million, from $54.8 million in the first quarter of 2010; Solar gross margin improved 127 basis points sequentially as the Company continued to implement effective cost reduction measures and scale production; and. Diluted EPS increased to $0.26 vs. $0.19 a year ago; non-GAAP diluted EPS increased to $0.33 vs. $0.31 a year ago.

    STR Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of encapsulants that are specialty extruded sheets and films used in the production of solar modules worldwide.

    Briggs & Stratton (NYSE:BGG) announced that it has donated 75 portable Briggs & Stratton 5000 watt generators to the American Red Cross to aid with disaster relief efforts from the deadly April tornadoes. The generators were immediately put to use as electrical services are slow to be restored. The Company has a long-standing history of corporate responsibility and helping those in need in our communities. “Partnering with the American Red Cross enabled us to get our products immediately in the hands of those most severely affected by the recent tornadoes,” said Todd Teske, Briggs & Stratton Corporation President, Chairman and CEO. “Providing power to the region will be essential to their recovery efforts.”

    Briggs & Stratton Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, and services air cooled gasoline engines for outdoor power equipment worldwide. It operates through two segments, Engines and Power Products.

    Manufacturing and Spending Rise, Savings Fall: No Surprise There

    Guess which cultural trait couldn’t be subdued for long… consumption! According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal saving dropped 8.5% to $304.0 billion in March, compared with $332.2 billion in February. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 2.7 percent in March, compared with 3.0 percent in February.

    Was savings down because wages were down? Nope. In March, personal income increased $36.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income increased $32.3 billion, or 0.3 percent. Personal consumption expenditures increased $58.6 billion, or 0.6 percent.

    So, our “Consumption is Culture” theme is looking strong so long as oil spills and car bombs don’t poop on our party.

    In other positive news, the Institute for Supply Management reported a 6-year high in their manufacturing index. Here’s how it breaks out:

    Finding Value in Pacific Regional Banks

    Last month, I took a look at some regional banks, breaking it down by region. When I looked at the Pacific region, I found seven banks that I felt that would be good investments. Now that earnings season is mostly over, I thought it would be a good time to see if the quarter helped any banks move or enter the rankings. Regional banks might also see an increase as customers of larger banks vote with their feet and move to local banks.

    What is the Pacific?
    When looking at the regional banks, it is important to note that some of the regions have some overlap. The Pacific region generally includes banks from states along the Pacific coast, as well as banks in Alaska and Hawaii. Also included are banks based a bit further inland, like Montana-based Glacier Bancorp. Region-leading Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH  ) is the largest bank in Hawaii and many other South Pacific territories.

    Screening factors
    As I did previously, I will rank the banks based on four factors: P/E ratio, P/B ratio, dividend yield, and net income margin. Only banks with a market cap over $300 million will be included.

    Profitability is important, so I first eliminated all banks without earnings over the past 12 months, looking for the cheapest bank according to this metric. My second factor is the P/B ratio. In the banking industry, a value of 1.5 is reasonable, and the adage I like is "buy at half, sell at two." Only banks that pay a dividend will be included -- the higher the payout, the better. Finally, net income margin will be used as another method of comparing the banks' profitability.

    Instead of further screening based on a higher dividend yield, I ranked all 10 banks that met the minimum requirements. Here are the top seven:

    Company

    P/E Ratio (TTM)

    P/B Ratio

    Dividend Yield

    Net Income Margin

    Bank of Hawaii 12.1 1.87 4.4% 27.1%
    First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK  ) 12.3 0.62 4.1% 12.4%
    City National (NYSE: CYN  ) 12.6 0.98 2% 15.6%
    Cathay General Bancorp (Nasdaq: CATY  ) 13.3 0.66 0.3% 24.8%
    CVB Financial (Nasdaq: CVBF  ) 14.3 1.41 3.6% 26%
    East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC  ) 13.4 1.23 1.1% 25.8%
    PacWest Bancorp (Nasdaq: PACW  ) 22.0 1.14 4.1% 9.9%
    Regional Averages 13.4 0.97 2.1% 12.9%

    Source: FinViz.com, TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Quarterly results cause changes
    Region-leading Bank of Hawaii nearly lost its grasp on the top spot after its quarterly earnings were down 1.8% from last year. Being the cheapest bank by P/E and the most profitable according to net income kept it on top. Gone from the list is former second place Glacier Bancorp, which, despite having the highest dividend yield of the region, is shunned due because of a P/E over 66 and a net income margin of only 4%. Umpqua Holdings and Westamerica Bancorp also join Glacier on the scrap heap.

    Regional opportunities abound!
    While the real lesson from Bank Transfer Day will be learned in the coming months, regional banks offer a better investment in the months ahead. Keep an eye on Pacific leader Bank of Hawaii by adding it to your free, personalized version of the Fool's My Watchlist today.

    A Pure Play Inflation Bet

    Ben Bernanke might not see inflation on the horizon, but after years of a high-liquidity diet from the Federal Reserve, historic deficit spending in Washington and little discernible economic growth to show for it, investors are rationally starting to wonder if inflation -- an undue and fraudulent expansion of prices -- could be forthcoming after a nearly 30-year hiatus.

    In anticipation, many have been buying gold or commodities. Others are shorting bonds to bet on higher interest rates. Both moves, for various reasons, tend to correlate imperfectly with inflation itself.

    Now a new pair of exchange-traded funds offer aim to provide a more precise solution by specifically following long-term inflation expectations, allowing everyday investors to bet on or against inflation just as big institutions have been for years.

    ProShares 30 Year TIPS/TSY Spread (RINF) and ProShares Short 30 Year TIPS/TSY Spread (FINF) are benchmarked to the Dow Jones Credit Suisse 30-Year Inflation Breakeven Index, which tracks the market's expectation of inflation by measuring the difference in yields between TIPS, which are adjusted for inflation, and long-term treasury bonds, which are not. The spread between the two instruments, the yield of the Treasury less that of the TIPS, is known as the "breakeven rate" for inflation. This can be even more volatile than interest rates themselves -- it's dropped nearly 12%, and at one point nearly 19%, since last summer.

    The funds' approach essentially nets out interest rate risk, leaving investors with a manner by which to wage or on the market's pure forecast for future inflation.

    When TIPS outperform Treasurys of comparable duration, the market is signaling it expects inflation will increase, benefiting the ProShares 30 Year TIPS/TSY Spread fund. If inflation is expected to decline, ProShares Short 30 Year TIPS/TSY Spread (FINF), which shortsthe spread, should rise instead, although the spread is volatile and investors can easily lose money if their predictions don't pan out. Both funds charge an annual expense ratio of 0.75%.

    After being introduced in 1993, the country's first ETF, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), initially languished as investors slowly learned how it could be integrated it into their strategies. While new products like RINF are still thinly traded and not widely understood, even a small resurgence in inflation could reinforce their utility. With all deference to Chairman Bernanke, history suggests inflation isn't dead, rather only lurking in the shadows before making a decisive and destructive return.

    —Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC

    Is CH Energy Group Earning Its Keep?

    Margins matter. The more CH Energy Group (NYSE: CHG  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong CH Energy Group's competitive position could be.

    Here's the current margin snapshot for CH Energy Group over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 50.3%, while operating margin is 10.9% and net margin is 4.6%.

    Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where CH Energy Group has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

    Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

    Here's the margin picture for CH Energy Group over the past few years.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

    Here's how the stats break down:

    • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 48.1% and averaged 40.8%. Operating margin peaked at 10.4% and averaged 8.4%. Net margin peaked at 4.7% and averaged 4.1%.
    • TTM gross margin is 50.3%, 950 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 10.9%, 250 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 4.6%, 50 basis points better than the five-year average.

    With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, CH Energy Group looks like it is doing fine.

    Can your portfolio provide you with enough income to last through retirement? You'll need more than CH Energy Group. Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." Click here for instant access to this free report.

    • Add CH Energy Group to My Watchlist.

    Monday, August 27, 2012

    Bernanke Says the Fed Will Indeed Keep That Growing Feeling

    Earlier I expressed my fear that a growing economy would cause the Fed to back off its aggressive policy. Bernanke says don’t worry.

    In sum, although economic growth will probably increase this year, we expect the unemployment rate to remain stubbornly above, and inflation to remain persistently below, the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent over the longer term with our mandate from the Congress to foster maximum employment and price stability. Under such conditions, the Federal Reserve would typically ease monetary policy by reducing the target for its short-term policy interest rate, the federal funds rate. However, the target range for the funds rate has been near zero since December 2008, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low target rate for an extended period. As a result, for the past two years we have been using alternative tools to provide additional monetary accommodation.

    The first statement is very important. Low inflation and high unemployment are the key variables, not growth. As long as inflation is low and unemployment is high we keep on the accelerator. No implicit acceptance of a 4% growth ceiling.

    A wide range of market indicators supports the view that the Federal Reserve’s securities purchases have been effective at easing financial conditions. For example, since August, when we announced our policy of reinvesting maturing securities and signaled we were considering more purchases, equity prices have risen significantly, volatility in the equity market has fallen, corporate bond spreads have narrowed, and inflation compensation as measured in the market for inflation-indexed securities has risen from low to more normal levels. Yields on 5- to 10-year Treasury securities initially declined markedly as markets priced in prospective Fed purchases; these yields subsequently rose, however, as investors became more optimistic about economic growth and as traders scaled back their expectations of future securities purchases. All of these developments are what one would expect to see when monetary policy becomes more accommodative, whether through conventional or less conventional means. Interestingly, these developments are also remarkably similar to those that occurred during the earlier episode of policy easing, notably in the months following our March 2009 announcement of a significant expansion in securities purchases. The fact that financial markets responded in very similar ways to each of these policy actions lends credence to the view that these actions had the expected effects on markets and are thereby providing significant support to job creation and the economy.

    Here Bernanke says that QE2 worked just like lowering the Funds rate would. Importantly it drove up inflation expectations, meaning that people are treating it like looser monetary policy.

    Put that together and it means that as long as inflation is low and unemployment high, Quantitative Easing will continue.

    FactSet Research Systems Earnings Preview

    FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS  ) hasn't been able to establish an earnings trend, bouncing between beating and falling short of estimates during the past fiscal year. The company will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, Dec. 13. FactSet Research Systems is a provider of integrated global financial and economic information, including fundamental financial data on tens of thousands of companies worldwide.

    What analysts say:

    • Buy, sell, or hold?: Analysts think investors should stand pat on FactSet Research Systems, with five of six analysts rating it hold. Analysts don't like FactSet Research Systems as much as competitor IHS overall. Six out of nine analysts rate IHS a buy compared to one of six for FactSet Research Systems. That rating hasn't budged in three months as analysts have remained unchanged in their opinion of the stock.
    • Revenue forecasts: On average, analysts predict $197.2 million in revenue this quarter. That would represent a rise of 13.8% from the year-ago quarter.
    • Wall Street earnings expectations: The average analyst estimate is earnings of $1.00 per share. Estimates range from $0.99 to $1.00.

    What our community says:
    CAPS All-Stars are solidly backing the stock with 98.6% assigning it an "outperform" rating. The community at large concurs with the All-Stars with 96.6% giving it a rating of "outperform." Fools are gung-ho about FactSet Research Systems and haven't been shy with their opinions lately, logging 114 posts in the past 30 days. FactSet Research Systems has a bullish CAPS rating of five out of five stars that is about on par with the Fool community assessment.

    Management:
    FactSet Research Systems' profit has risen year over year by an average of 14.1% over the past five quarters. The company's gross margin shrank by 2.1 percentage points in the last quarter. Revenue rose 14.1% while cost of sales rose 21.4% to $65.5 million from a year earlier.

    Now let's look at how efficient management is at running the business. Traditionally, margins represent the efficiency with which companies capture portions of sales dollars. The following table shows gross, operating, and net margins over the past four quarters.

    Quarter

    Q4

    Q3

    Q2

    Q1

    Gross Margin

    65.9%

    66.1%

    66.1%

    67.2%

    Operating Margin

    30.7%

    33.7%

    32.7%

    34.3%

    Net Margin

    21.3%

    23.6%

    25.5%

    24.0%

    We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized service. Add FactSet Research Systems now.

    Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of FactSet Research Systems. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

    Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.

    Genuine Parts Beats Analyst Estimates on EPS

    Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC  ) reported earnings on Feb. 21. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Genuine Parts met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

    Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased and GAAP earnings per share expanded.

    Margins increased across the board.

    Revenue details
    Genuine Parts chalked up revenue of $3.01 billion. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw a top line of $3.05 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 7.4% higher than the prior-year quarter's $2.81 billion.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    EPS details
    EPS came in at $0.86. The eight earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.83 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.86 for Q4 were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.75 per share.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    Margin details
    For the quarter, gross margin was 29.6%, 50 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 7.0%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 4.5%, 30 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

    Looking ahead
    Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $3.14 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.87.

    Next year's average estimate for revenue is $13.10 billion. The average EPS estimate is $3.96.

    Investor sentiment
    The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 337 members out of 356 rating the stock outperform, and 19 members rating it underperform. Among 137 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 133 give Genuine Parts a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

    Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Genuine Parts is hold, with an average price target of $56.17.

    Can your portfolio provide you with enough income to last through retirement? You'll need more than Genuine Parts. Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 11 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." Click here for instant access to this free report.

    • Add Genuine Parts to My Watchlist.

    Expect Decoupling: Buy Agriculture And Short Industrial Metals

    2011 started off well for the commodities markets and basic materials equities, but fears of a hard landing in China and a slowdown in Europe took caused them to slump the rest of the year and severely underperform. Correlations were also strong amongst the commodity sector as well as all of the commodities outside of gold declined for the year.

    However, in 2012 I think this correlation will break. The problems in China with the collapse of the coastal China real estate bubble and declining exports are substantial enough to send China down to a hard landing. Wealthy elites in China who are unsatisfied with government interference in their business operations and the lack of civil liberties are moving away in droves to the US, Canada, and Australia. They are taking their assets with them out of the country with them which adds to deceleration of Chinese growth.

    Since China is responsible for 40% of commodities demand for China, I expect commodities as a whole (assuming no massive QE3) to continue to struggle into 2012. However, I expect there to be divergence among different types of commodities. Industrial metals will continue to decline and underperform while agricultural products will outperform commodities indexes.

    The reason for this disparity is the diverging effect of Chinese slowdown on industrial metals versus farm products. The decline in Chinese growth from 8-10% annually to below 5% adversely hurts industrial metals because at a slower growth rate, China's appetite for industrial metals deteriorates rapidly. Supply has increased rapidly just as demand for metals has been falling. 2011 was a record year for copper, silver, and iron ore production. As a result of excess supply, inventories of steel, iron ore, and copper are overflowing in commodity exchanges around the world ranging from China to New Orleans. This combination has and will continue to create downward pressure and bearish speculation among industrial metals.

    Agricultural commodities on the other hand face much less elastic demand. Less housing in construction in China hurts copper demand, but it does not change the fact that people will not stop eating. Emerging economies may be facing slowdowns, but they are not contracting or halting to the point that consumers will be forced to change back to a grain based diet from their newly acquired meat based diets. Agricultural output has been rising, but not at the pace to keep up with long term population. High birth rates and access to modern medical technology in developing countries has created a Malthusian trap for large parts of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. This continuous growth in global population versus food supply is a strong support for food prices going into the near future. In addition to this, increased volatility in the futures market has made farmers hesitant to increase production in 2012. Overall, these trends place excellent support levels for agricultural commodities and will drive prices upward into 2012.

    The best way for investors to capitalize on these trends in the commodities markets is via pair trades that go long on agriculture and short on industrial metals. The least risky way to do this is through ETFs. Go long on the Powershares Agriculture ETF (DBA) and short the Powershares Base Metals ETF (DBB). This pair trade can also be completed with individual stocks as well. Some combinations include going long Potash (POT) and short Rio Tinto (RIO), long Seaboard (SEB) and short Aluminum Corporation of China (ACH) or for a Brazilian twist go long Brazil's leading sugar producer Cozan (CZZ) and go short on struggling iron ore producer Vale (VALE).

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in DBB over the next 72 hours.