Sunday, September 30, 2012

Jobs, earnings in focus after big quarter

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

Following a big market rally in the year�s first quarter, investors are scrutinizing data in search of its fundamental basis or signs of its pullback. See full story.

Fund, ETF investors could see global gains fade

Stock-fund and ETF investors venturing outside of the U.S. waded into calmer waters in the first quarter, but rough currents lie ahead. Positioning portfolios against such uncertainties will dominate investors� attention. See full story.

Bond fund investors ride out market�s bumps

If the first quarter is any indicator, bond market behavior may finally reflect the �new normal� that Pimco�s Bill Gross and others first started talking about a few years back. See full story.

How to boost your investing stamina

Research indicates that for most investors, doing nothing may be their best path to portfolio success, writes Steve Beck of MarketRiders. See full story.

2013 Hyundai Genesis Coupe

Hyundai has given its sporty coupe a front-to-back makeover and added power to make the Genesis a legitimate challenger to Ford�s Mustang and Chevy�s Camaro, writes Ron Amadon. See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Instead of acknowledging that banks have become a part of government, we keep pretending they are private institutions, writes David Weidner. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Is the state that you have designs on retiring to tax friendly or not? And the basic questions to answer are these: How does the state tax your income? How does it tax your property and your consumption? And what�s the overall tax burden? See full story.

WebMD Hits a 52-Week Low: Will It Flatline?

Shares of WebMD (Nasdaq: WBMD  ) , the online health care portal, hit a 52-week low yesterday in reaction to a less-than-stellar earnings report. Let's take a look at how the company got here to find out whether the long-term prognosis is terminal.

How it got here
WebMD has been moving lower for a year now, starting with a big drop last summer followed by another plunge in November on weak forward guidance. The pain continued with a virtual stock-price heart attack in January after its efforts to find a buyer ended in embarrassing failure, and last month saw another humiliation as the market all but scoffed at WebMD's efforts to buy back shares. Since announcing its buyback intentions, WebMD's share price has not once reached the $26 high end of its anticipated $150 million buyback.

Despite meeting expectations for first-quarter results, more lousy forward guidance drew another pitiful reaction from investors. It's all added up to send shares to not only 52-week lows, but five-year lows as well:

WBMD Total Return Price data by YCharts.

The health information sector has been lousy in general, but WebMD has been among the worst performers, only narrowly beating out Allscripts (Nasdaq: MDRX  ) thanks to a similarly moribund first-quarter earnings report that just wound up looking comparatively worse to the market than WebMD's.

What you need to know
While no company offers quite the breadth of WebMD's vast and regularly updated health information database directed at both consumers and professionals, it's also debatable as to whether or not any one company needs to. As the table below shows, companies that offer health information as an ancillary service have generally outperformed WebMD in the past few years.

Company

P/E Ratio

Annualized 3-Year Earnings Growth

Net Margin (TTM)

WebMD 27.4 (14.0%) 8.9%
Allscripts 30.3 41.4% 4.5%
Aetna (NYSE: AET  ) 8.8 15.9% 5.6%
UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH  ) 11.6 10.4% 5.0%
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) 18.5 14.3% 27.1%

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Part of WebMD's more recent underperformance comes from the gradual correcting of what the market saw as too high a valuation. A drastic dip in net income that began two years ago never really reversed, causing investors to lose faith in the company's future:

WBMD Net Income TTM data by YCharts.

Meanwhile, Allscripts offers professional-focused health care information services, Aetna and UnitedHealth both make private health-information portals available to large captive audiences, and even web-information gateway Google has begun making its presence felt in the health information industry. Information on its own doesn't offer much of a moat, and WebMD's responses to the competition haven't earned the trust of many investors -- except, perhaps unsurprisingly, corporate raider Carl Icahn, who recently doubled his stake in the company. His involvement might just be shareholders' best hope for gains in the near future.

What's next?
Where does WebMD go from here? That will depend on whether or not the company can turn its dwindling financial fortunes around, or whether or not Carl Icahn goes all in. The Motley Fool's CAPS community has given WebMD a meager two-star rating, with a third expecting the stock to continue its 52-week trend. The majority hopes for a recovery, but they're not particularly confident about it.

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1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Zynga?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, online social games operator Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Zynga's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Zynga facts

Headquarters (founded) San Francisco (2007)
Market Cap $7.2 billion
Industry Home entertainment software
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $1.1 billion
Management Founder/Chairman/CEO Mark Pincus
CFO David Wehner
Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity (36.2%)
Cash/Debt $1.8 billion / $0
Competitors Dena
Electronic Arts
Gameloft

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 70% of the 429 members who have rated Zynga believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Earlier this month, one of those Fools, dmiller5350, cautioned Fools about Zynga's faddish qualities:

Looked through all my old apps the other day and deleted a bunch of games exactly like the ones Zynga creates. All these games are addicting but ALWAYS short lived. ... Eventually Zynga titles won't be the next big game, and that's guaranteed. They spent way too much money to purchase OMGPOP for DrawSomething. I played that game for a week and was done, never was I even tempted to pay money. ...

The stock may pop briefly with [Facebook] IPO but it can't keep buying competitor games as the barrier of entry is so cheap there could be hundreds of thousands of competitors in the future. They'll also have a hard time being profitable in other channels. ...

This stock valuation is a joke and a house of cards, eventually it's going to come crashing down.

If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Luckily, we've found another tech play we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Only Stock You Need to Profit from the NEW Technology Revolution." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

USD To Advance As Stocks Drift Ahead Of Significant Event Risk

By Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst

The greenback wasfirmer at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCMDollar Index (Ticker: US Dollar) climbing a modest0.19% on the session. Markets continue to lack conviction ahead ofmajor event risk later this week as traders look to interest ratedecisions from the RBNZ, BoE, and the ECB, and Friday’s muchanticipated EU summit. Reaction to yesterday’s credit watch warning from rating agencyStandard & Poor’s saw a mixed performance in Europeanequities which carried over into the US session with the Dow andthe S&P climbing 0.43% and 0.11% respectively, while the NASDAQfell by 0.23%.The dollar continues tohold above the 9830 level cited in previous reports with a test oftopside resistance at 9900 failing to produce any significantadvances for the reserve currency. A fresh long-term Fibonacciextension taken from the 2010 and 2011 lows offer better guidancemoving forward with downside support highlighted by the 76.4%extension at 9790 and key 61.8% extension at 9700. Daily topsidetargets are held at the 100% extension at 9930 and thepsychological 10,000 level. Look for the greenback to continue toconsolidate into the close of the week with our medium term bullishbias remaining intact. Note that the indexcontinues to hold between the 20 and 50-day moving averages at 9883and 9819 respectively with a flattening RSI suggesting the dollarmay be poised for a breakout. An hourly chart showsthe index trading within the confines of a newly formed ascendingchannel formation after breaking a previous channel dating back toNovember 25th. Interim support nowrests at the convergence of channel support and the 50% Fibonacciextension taken from the August 1st and October 27th troughs at 9850, withsubsequent floors seen at 9800 and the 38.2% extension at 9754. AndRSI break above 50 eyes topside resistance at 9900 with a breachhere eyeing targets at the 61.8% extension at 9946 and10,000.The greenback advancedagainst three of the four component currencies highlighted by a0.35% advance against the British pound. The sterling, which isfeatured in today’s Scalp Report, continues to faceheadwinds ahead of the Bank of England rate decision on Thursdaywith ongoing concerns about the European crisis and its impact onthe UK continuing to limit advances in the pound. The strongestperformer of the lot was the yen which advanced a modest 0.11% asyen advances outpaced those of the dollar. As risk continues totaper off, both the yen and the dollar look to benefit as tradersseek refuge in lower yielding assets. The euro was virtuallyunchanged on the session as price action continues to hold betweenthe 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci extensions taken from October 27th and November 13th crests at 1.3335 and1.3425 respectively. Click here for EUR/USD scalp chart. Tomorrow’s US economic calendar provides little in the way of event risk with dollar price action likely to continue to take cues from broader market sentiment. Accordingly the reserve currency may within its recent range as traders eye GDP figures out of Australia later tonight and data out of Europe tomorrow with the UK industrial/manufacturing production, and German industrial production on tap.--- Writtenby Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst with DailyFX.comJoinMichael tomorrow for Live Coverage of the USNFP Print at 1315GMT (8:15ET)Tocontact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.comor followhim on Twitter @MBForex.Tobe addedto Michael’s email distribution list, send an email withsubject line “Distribution List” to mboutros@dailyfx.com DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM, Inc (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

Original Article: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2011/12/06/USD_to_Advance_as_Stocks_Drift_Ahead_of_Significant_Event_Risk.html

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Texas Industries Earnings Preview

Investors are bracing for the worst and waiting to see if Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI  ) will fall short of Wall Street forecasts for the third consecutive quarter. The company will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday. Texas Industries is a supplier of heavy construction materials in the United States.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or hold?: Analysts think investors should stand pat on Texas Industries with seven of 10 analysts rating it hold. Analysts don't like Texas Industries as much as competitor Eagle Materials overall. Two out of 13 analysts rate Eagle Materials a buy compared to one of 10 for Texas Industries. That rating hasn't budged in three months as analysts have remained unchanged in their opinion of the stock.
  • Revenue forecasts: On average, analysts predict $132.7 million in revenue this quarter. That would represent a rise of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Wall Street earnings expectations: The average analyst estimate is a loss of $0.82 per share. Estimates range from a loss of $0.97 to a loss of $0.65.

What our community says:
CAPS All-Stars are enthusiastically backing the stock, with 82.9% awarding it an outperform rating. The greater community is in line with the All-Stars, as 81.9% give it a rating of outperform. Texas Industries' bearish CAPS rating of one out of five stars falls short of the Fool community sentiment.

Management:
The company's revenue has now risen for two straight quarters. The company's gross margin shrank by 6.4 percentage points in the last quarter. Revenue rose 5.4% while cost of sales rose 12.7% to $153.3 million from a year earlier.

Now let's look at how efficient management is at running the business. Margins illustrate how efficiently a company captures portions of sales dollars. The company's operating margins have been decreasing year-over-year for the last three quarters. Operating margins reflect the total sales revenue that the company retains after costs. Here are Texas Industries' reported margins for the last four quarters:

Quarter

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Gross Margin

1.8%

7.6%

3.7%

(7.4%)

Operating Margin

(9.2%)

(2.2%)

(10.2%)

(21.2%)

Net Margin

(13.5%)

(4.1%)

(5.2%)

(16.6%)

For all our Texas Industries-specific analysis, including earnings and beyond, add Texas Industries to My Watchlist.

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.

Has Interactive Brokers Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Interactive Brokers.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 0.3% Fail
1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 32.1% Pass
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 77.4% Pass
Net Margin > 15% 44.4% Pass
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 6.0% Pass
Current Ratio > 1.3 1.16 Fail
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 11.3% Fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 31.8* Fail
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 2.8% Pass
5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% NM NM
Total Score 5 out of 9

Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful; Interactive Brokers started paying a dividend in May 2011. *Reflects trailing-12-month earnings figures. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at Interactive Brokers last year, the online broker has more than doubled its score. A big turnaround in sales over the past year combined with the debut of a dividend to give IB the extra points.

Interactive Brokers is one of many participants in the online brokerage space. Unlike better-known rivals Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW  ) and TD AMERITRADE (Nasdaq: AMTD  ) , among many others, Interactive Brokers has no qualms about aiming itself at high-volume traders rather than long-term investors. That strategy gives the company access to some of the most lucrative profit-producing customers in the business.

But Interactive Brokers also differs from its peers in that it also has an extensive market-making operation. Market-making brought in more than half of the company's revenue in the third quarter, and although it hasn't grown as quickly as its brokerage segment over the past year, it still represents an important part of IB's business.

Perhaps the biggest news, though, is Interactive Brokers' decision to pay a dividend. With a yield near 3%, the company beats not only Schwab, TD, and E*TRADE Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC  ) but also broader-based financial companies such as Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , both of which also offer discount brokerage services.

With a stock price that has struggled over the past year, Interactive Brokers definitely isn't perfect. But if more investors keep thinking that short-term trading is a better strategy than long-term investing, then Interactive Brokers is in a great spot to capitalize on that trend.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Click here to add Interactive Brokers to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Finding the perfect stock is only one piece of a successful investment strategy. Get the big picture by taking a look at our "13 Steps to Investing Foolishly."

Editor's note: A previous version of this article relied on erroneous data that failed to accurately reflect Interactive Brokers' corporate structure. The Fool regrets the error.

Sector Detector: Energy Tries To Fuel Year-End Rally, Tech Is A Drag

Like the nice employer who never fails to pay a Christmas bonus every year, Santa seems bound and determined to give bulls the year-end rally they have come to expect. But bears aren’t going away quietly—although bulls got some unintended help from the bears with Tuesday’s short-covering-fueled rally.

Among the ten U.S. sector iShares, Energy (IYE) has been the leader so far this week through Wednesday, followed by Consumer Goods (IYK) and Basic Materials (IYM). The big laggard has been Technology (IYW), due to Oracle’s (ORCL) disappointing earnings miss. In fact, through Wednesday, IYW was the only one of the ten sector iShares that was in the negative for the week. Nevertheless, the rest of market seems to be ignoring any broader implications of the ORCL report, which is a positive thing.

One market segment that has been consistently strong in this unpredictable market is the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is a subset of the Healthcare sector, and is a pocket of strength that keeps the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) consistently scoring highly in the Sabrient SectorCast rankings. In fact, IYH ranks at the top this week.

Looking ahead, investors certainly have plenty to worry about. As usual, the main story is the lack of a confidence-inducing solution to the debt crisis in Europe. The credit rating agencies have been downgrading credit in the region, while the ECB has refused to aggressively buy bonds to keep rates down. However, the ECB did come through with a bigger than expected refinancing operation in 3-year loans (rather than the standard 1-year) to European banks. A European solution would keep a solid bid under the euro, but otherwise the dollar will be relatively strong, which hurts both stocks and commodities.

Beyond that dicey situation, we have the polarized U.S. Congress, which has given us the U.S. budget ceiling non-solution and now the threat of expiration of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits. Then there are the potential instabilities from the U.S. presidential election process, Russian elections, economic slowdown in emerging markets, North Korea’s leadership succession, the threat of Sunni/Shiite civil war in Iraq, and continued uprisings in the Arab world.

But if we look at the home front, the economic numbers continue to improve in fits and starts, and investors have been taking notice. Unemployment, home sales, industrial production, and consumer confidence have all shown improvement. Inflation remains tame and borrowing rates remain historically low. Combine these with any sign of positivity in Europe, such as the successful bond auction in Spain, and stocks have a reasonable foundation from which to move higher—particularly with valuations so attractive on a historical basis.

Now let’s look at the charts. The SPY closed Wednesday at 124.17. In last week’s blog post, I drew a symmetrical triangle formation on the chart and suggested that a test of support was occurring at the convergence of the lower line of the triangle and the 100-day simple moving average. I further suggested that “a confirmed failure of the triangle would pretty much put a final dagger in any chance of a Santa rally, but a bounce from this level might be just the ticket for the sleigh ride.” Well, it appears that support held, and now it is looking for interim support to hold on a closing basis at the 50-day moving average before making a run at the upper line of the triangle and the 200-day moving average.

The VIX (CBOE Market Volatility Index – a.k.a. “fear gauge”) (VXX) closed Wednesday at 21.43. It has been downtrending, which is bullish for equities. It has put 30 firmly in the rearview mirror, just when it seemed that 30 would be the new floor in a high-volatility environment, and now VIX seems to have its sights set on support at 20.

The TED spread (indicator of credit risk in the general economy, measuring the difference between the 3-month T-bill and 3-month LIBOR interest rates) continues its climb since the first of August. It hit another 52-week high this week before closing at 57.12 on Wednesday. This is far above the low teens from earlier this year, and indicates elevated investor worry about bank liquidity and a preference for the safety of Treasuries bonds over corporate bonds.

Latest rankings: The table ranks each of the ten U.S. industrial sector iShares (ETFs) by our proprietary Outlook Score, which employs a forward-looking, fundamentals-based, quantitative algorithm to create a bottom-up composite profile of the constituent stocks within the ETF. In addition, the table also shows our proprietary Bull Score and Bear Score for each ETF.

High Bull score indicates that stocks within the ETF have tended recently toward relative outperformance during particularly strong market periods, while a high Bear score indicates that stocks within the ETF have tended to hold up relatively well during particularly weak market periods. Bull and Bear are backward-looking indicators of recent sentiment trend.

As a group, these three scores can be quite helpful for positioning a portfolio for a given set of anticipated market conditions.

Observations

  • After a brief appearance at the top last week, Energy has fallen to fourth this week. Its outperformance over the past few days might have something to do with that. Healthcare moves into the top slot with an Outlook score of 73. Financial (IYF) makes a big 17-point jump from fifth place to second, with a score of 66, which is just ahead of Technology at 65 and IYE at 64. IYF still sports the best (lowest) projected P/E, while IYH retains good analyst support each week.
  • Former leader Basic Materials continues to be held back by net downward revisions by the Wall Street community; although it still sports a low projected P/E. Apparently investors still think the analysts are too optimistic, even with the downward revisions. Consumer Services (IYC) has been receiving the most support among analysts with net earnings upgrades, which is an encouraging sign for the economy, but it is held back by tight margins and a relatively high projected P/E.
  • As usual, Utilities (IDU) and Telecom (IYZ) are in the bottom two. Stocks within these ETFs are saddled with the highest projected P/Es.
  • Seeing IYW, IYE, IYF, and IYJ in the top half is a relatively bullish sign. It would be better to see IYM and IYC scoring above IYK, and to see a top score above 80. As a whole, the Outlook rankings for the 10 U.S. sector iShares reflect cautious optimism.
  • Looking at the Bull scores, IYE has been the leader on strong market days, scoring 60, followed by IYM and IYF. IDU remains the weakest with a 40. It is notable that IYW is not a leader on strong market days.
  • As for the Bear scores, IDU is the clear investor favorite “safe haven” on weak market days with a score of 65. IYH has passed up IYK for second at 62. IWM displays the lowest Bear score of 40, which means that stocks with this ETF sell off the most on weak market days.
  • Overall, IYH displays the best combination of Outlook/Bull/Bear scores. Adding up the three scores gives a total score of 179. IYZ is the worst at 112. IYE and IYH are tied for the best combination of Bull/Bear with a total score of 106, while IYW has the worst combination (98).
  • Top ranked stocks in Healthcare and Financial include Anika Therapeutics (ANIK), Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), Republic Bancorp (RBCAA), and World Acceptance Corp (WRLD).

    These scores represent the view that the Healthcare and Financial sectors may be relatively undervalued overall, while Utilities and Telecom sectors may be relatively overvalued, based on our 1-3 month forward look.

    Disclosure: Author has no positions in stocks or ETFs mentioned.


    NFLX: Customer Satisfaction ‘Relatively Robust,’ Says Citi

    Citigroup‘s Mark Mahaney this evening reiterates a Buy rating and a $130 price target on shares of Netflix (NFLX), writing that a survey the bank commissioned this month, consisting of 3,500 U.S. respondents, with the assistance of SurveyMonkey, showed what he described as “a modest decline in overall satisfaction” with Netflix since the same study was conducted in December.

    The number of subscribers describing themselves as “extremely satisfied” in the poll dropped to 10% from 18% in December, writes Mahaney. Overall, 45% were either extremely satisfied or “very satisfied.” Another 36% were “modestly satisfied.” 4% of respondents were “not at all satisfied with Netflix, notes Mahaney.

    He describes those trends as “relatively robust” in terms of customer satisfaction.

    The number of subscribers who called Netflix a “leading video destination” rose to 30% from 27%.� And subscribers who say they’re wouldn’t churn off of the service rose from 46% to 53%, writes Mahaney.

    “Yes, these takeaways are somewhat mixed � not unambiguously positive or negative. But we would describe them overall as incrementally positive,” he writes.

    Netflix shares today fell $2.93, or almost 3%, to $106.20.

    Fin

    Best Stocks To Invest In 2012-2-15-1

    Greenhill & Co., Inc. (NYSE:GHL) regretfully reports that two Managing Directors of the firm — Jeffrey F. Buckalew and Rakesh Chawla — are believed to have been aboard a private plane that crashed this morning in New Jersey . The plane belonged to Mr. Buckalew, an experienced pilot whose passion was flying. We also believe that Mr. Buckalew’s wife, Corinne, and their two children, Jackson and Meriwether, were on the plane. Press reports indicate there were no survivors. The firm has no further information regarding the crash at this time.

    Greenhill & Co., Inc. operates as an independent investment bank. The company provides financial advice on mergers, acquisitions, restructurings, fund placement, financings, and capital raisings to corporations, partnerships, institutions, and governments, as well as merchant banking services.

    URS Corporation (NYSE:URS) announced that it has acquired the assets of CATI Training Systems, a leading designer and developer of virtual visual environments for flight simulators and a variety of other training systems for the Department of Defense and commercial customers. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

    URS Corporation provides engineering, construction, and technical services to public agencies and private sector clients worldwide.

    VeriFone Systems, Inc (NYSE:PAY) announced that the millionth VeriFone payment acceptance system in Russia was installed this month in the city of Tyumen by VeriFone International Partner (VIP) INPAS Company together with the West Siberian bank of Sberbank. The one millionth system was installed at Eldorado, the federal network of electronics and home appliances shops.

    VeriFone Systems, Inc. designs, markets, and services electronic payment solutions that enable secure electronic payments among consumers, merchants, and financial institutions worldwide.

    Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)
    Cleantech Transit, Inc. is in the business of producing and conserving power. Cleantech Transit produces and sells clean electricity globally, with a focus on sustainable energies using renewable resources such as Geothermal, Solar and Wind. Cleantech Transit’s goal is to use innovative technologies to reduce electricity consumption and dependence on carbon based energy. Cleantech Transit, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

    When biological material extracted from some living being is used as a renewable source of energy it is called Biomass. It is usually comprised of the flora grown to produce electricity or heat - mostly remains of forest such as dead trees or part of trees. The biomass is transformed into chemicals so it can be used to generate required energy. 3.3 percent of United States energy comes from biomass. The biomass station works just like the fossil fuel power station. It does not include fossil fuels as they are transformed into coal, gas, petroleum by geological procedures. Fossils contain that carbon dioxide which was long abandoned in the carbon cycle and is no more considered as a part of the system.

    Plants and trees are the best mean to absorb the carbon dioxide in atmosphere. When plants are burnt to gain energy or heat then the process of combustion adds carbon dioxide into the environment. If the plants used as a source of energy are grown again than the method is carbon neutral - as the next generation of plants dilute the concentration of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Following are the material which can be used as biomass: woodchips, wood (like poplar, willow, eucalyptus, etc.), paper, trash, agricultural crops (like sugar cane. corn), dung, animal waste, sewage, algae, sewage, etc.

    Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company’s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

    The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

    Dividend Portfolio Playoffs: Which Stocks Are Leading

    Dividend stock selections continue to be of interest in the light of continuing low interest rates limiting the returns from bonds. We have seen that not all high dividend stocks are good value however, and we are trawling through the many selections (over 60) we have reviewed to drill down to the best of the best and note the most commonly used. We have reviewed 15 selections so far and have rejected 11.

    In this selection we pick up five equity selections. We list out the stocks in each of the selections and we note that TOT and PEP are repeated.

    Next 5 Dividend Stocks Rewarding ShareholdersCSX (CSX)Harley-Davidson (HOG)Legg Mason (LM)Marriott International (MAR)Pepsico (PEP)
    5 Dividend Stocks For A Shaky EconomyJohnson & Johnson (JNJ)Kimberly-Clark (KMB)Sysco (SYY) AT&T (T)
    5 Great Dividend Stocks Chosen By The ExpertsGlaxoSmithKline (GSK)Eli Lilly (LLY)Total SA (TOT)Vodafone (VOD)Nestle (NSRGY)
    5 High-Yield Stocks You May Be IgnoringTelefonica (TEF)

    France Telecom (FTE)

    Nokia (NOK) Veolia (VE)
    5 'Necessity' Stocks That Could Protect Your Portfolio From DisasterDuke Energy (DUK)American Water Works (AWK)Chevron (CVX)Coca-Cola (KO)Wal-Mart (WMT)

    There is a full list of the stocks in each of these portfolios at the end of this article.

    We are keeping a tally of the most popular selections and the leader board is:

    TickerMention
    Intel (INTC)3
    Johnson & Johnson3
    Kimberly-Clark3
    Annaly Capital (NLY)3
    Procter & Gamble (PG)3
    Sysco3
    Waste Management (WM)3

    Note that we have deleted any duplicate mentions or the list will get unmanageably long -- especially as we continue the review.

    Portfolio Performance Comparison

    Portfolio/Fund NameYTD
    Return
    1Yr AR1Yr Sharpe3Yr AR3Yr Sharpe5Yr AR5Yr Sharpe
    Fools 5 Great Dividend Stocks Chosen By The Experts5%6%29%13%56%4%12%
    5 dividend stocks for a shaky economy4%6%27%8%52%2%6%
    5 Necessity Stocks That Could Protect Your Portfolio From Disaster-0%18%109%17%114%
    Next 5 Dividend Stocks Rewarding Shareholders-7%-1%-18%17%56%-0%-8%
    5 High-Yield Stocks You May Be Ignoring-23%-17%-77%-6%-24%-8%-31%

    On a standalone basis, the first two portfolios look fair, but when we compare them with the best ones we have found so far, none of them threaten to replace them. We note that the High Yield Stocks that are being ignored, may be ignored for a good reason. They are European stocks and still being impacted by eurozone turbulence. It may be worthwhile revisiting that selection when (if?) that gets resolved.

    The four which are our current measuring stick are:

    Portfolio/Fund Name1Yr AR1Yr Sharpe3Yr AR3Yr Sharpe5Yr AR5Yr Sharpe
    Fools 5 Dividend Payers to Save your Portfolio26%172%21%137%11%55%
    13 High Yielding Stocks1%6%19%89%6%22%
    3 Bargain Dividends Investors Should Buy Today27%150%24%135%
    4 Special Dividend Plays16%59%26%98%


    One Year Chart Three Year Chart Five Year Chart

    When I look at the five year charts, I can see that the necessity stocks look to be the best of the bunch and may be worth a look later on as we get more history and the economy recovers somewhat. We will keep digging and reviewing and see what the next set of dividend equity selections bring us. In the long run, the best will come to the top.

    TickerCompany
    AWKAmerican Water Works
    CSXCSX Corporation
    CVXChevron
    DUKDuke Energy
    FTEFrance Telecom
    GSKGlaxoSmithKline
    HOGHarley-Davidson
    INTCIntel
    JNJJohnson & Johnson
    KMBKimberly-Clark
    KOCoca Cola
    LLYEli Lilly
    LMLegg Mason
    MARMarriot International
    NLYAnnaly Capital
    NOKNokia
    NSRGY.PKNestle
    PEPPepsi Cola
    PGProcter and Gamble
    SYYSysco Corporation
    TATT
    TEFTelefonica
    TOTTotal
    VEVeolia
    VODVodaphone
    WMTWal-Mart

    Disclosure: I am long INTC, MCD, CVX.

    Disclaimer: MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company or companies mentioned in this article. It does not set up their retirement plans. The performance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained through historical simulation and are hypothetical.

    Sun Hydraulics: Nice Play On Global Growth

    Background: With its high correlation to the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and short lead times for shipments of orders, Sun Hydraulics (SNHY) (“Sun”) gives an early glimpse into demand in the industrial sector. Sun Hydraulics is headquartered in Florida. It makes products having the exciting sounding name of: “screw-in hydraulic valves.” Two thirds of its products are used in the mobile market, which includes off road construction, agriculture, utilities, oil and mining. The other one-third is sold to industrial markets such as power units, automation, machine tools and plastics tools.

    So what is Sun saying about its markets now? On the November 8 conference call the company disappointed the Street by guiding to fourth quarter revenue of $44 million below the third quarter revenue of $53 million and expectations of $49 million. It blamed the shortfall on order weakness caused by a slowdown in the PMI readings. (Remember, demand for Sun’s products is highly correlated to the PMI.) After peaking in June, the PMI has hovered around the low 50s. Orders for Sun began to slow in July and August.

    Valuation: The company expects to earn $1.50 in 2011. At the present price of $23 it has a P/E ratio of 15. For a company that could grow revenues at 10% and earnings at 15-20% over the long haul, a P/E of 15 is reasonable.

    Technical Analysis: A look at the chart on BigCharts.com shows a flat 200 day moving average. This illustrates that the market view is balanced between bulls and bears and is waiting for a move up or down through the trading range. The MACD line is near zero and looks ready to have the red line cross the blue line which usually signals a buy point. There is major technical support at $22 and the panic bottom for the year was recorded at $20. (It was at $20 for only two days.) Because earnings were mildly disappointing there may be little buying pressure to move the stock up before the end of the year.

    At its current price, the stock is down about 8% for 2011 so there will be little tax loss selling in November and December. I would buy it now at $23-22 if one believes the economic picture will improve, even if only modestly. The best and safest price to buy is $20, but I doubt it will reach that level before the end of the year. I do not foresee enough bad economic news to push it down to that level before the end of the year.

    Balance Sheet: Sun has no debt and a very strong balance sheet. Its current ratio is 7.5 to 1. (2 to 1 is considered strong) It has a large amount of cash on its balance sheet as shown by its quick ratio of 6.5 to 1.

    Recommendation: Sun is a solid company which is growing share in a niche industrial market. The company has been profitable for 38 years in a row. In a market where sales grow 4-5% a year it has grown revenues at 10-15% a year. This shows that it has been gaining market share steadily. The PMI is a strong leading indicator for the company. If you believe that global industrial production will pick up, then Sun is a buy. If your view is that economic growth will slow, I would only buy Sun at a price which discounts a slowdown such as $22-20.

    Sun is a microcap stock that averages 50,000 in daily trading volume. Since it is a thinly traded stock, it is subject to wilder price swings than normal. This makes it good for short term trading if you are so inclined. Long term investors who can ignore the recent volatility in the stock market may also be interested since it has a sustainable path to market share gains and is growing its addressable market.

    If you believe that the world economy is on the verge of stronger growth Sun would be a nice play—short term or long term.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Friday, September 28, 2012

    Defense Cuts Won’t Shake Northrop

    Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) is one of the largest integrated defense companies, with divisions that cover the entire security spectrum. It’s in the midst of precautionary cost-cutting because there are indications that the pullbacks from Iraq and Afghanistan — as well as the ending of the space shuttle program — will trim the aerospace and defense budgets and affect the entire industry.

    The situation may be similar to 1985 through 1997 when big cuts in defense spending caused industry consolidation. During that time, the larger players — like Northrop — got larger and focused on restructuring and investing in new technologies. Likewise, the recent industry consolidation is likely to be beneficial to Northrop shareholders as the company concentrates on higher margin businesses and sells off less profitable divisions.

    Northrop�s management has been preparing for this by increasing the quarterly dividend from 30 cents a share five years ago to the current quarterly rate of 50 cents, resulting in a yield of 3.52%. That’s only a 29% payout ratio and likely a sustainable rate, no matter what happens with defense spending. Northrop is proactively cutting costs by eliminating 500 jobs in its aerospace division by the end of the year. The company is offering a voluntary buyout program to about 23,000 employees, followed by involuntary layoffs — the old carrot-and-stick approach.

    Northrop�s stock has sold off notably since the market got wind of the coming restructuring, but that has only increased the dividend yield. Because it’s highly likely for Northrop to become a major consolidator in the industry, and with the low payout, the dividend could offer plenty of cushion for shareholders to ride out the uncertainty.

    Northrop has an entrenched position in the defense sector, where servicing existing systems and equipment promises to bring it plenty of return business so that the restructuring goes according to plan and the dividend remains intact. Northrop currently yields nearly double the rate of the 10-year Treasury note, with a steady revenue stream. The government may cut the defense budget, but it knows that its needs defense contractors to be in good financial shape, so any cuts should be measured and distributed among all big industry players.

    Top Stocks For 5/21/2012-9

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (CRWE)

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. announced that it has extended its CRWENEWSWIRE global platform web presence and is now publishing online news and information to the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom, using their specific country code domain and native language.

    Online advertising is mainly focused on performance based payment, your ROI (Return on Investment) are sure to be far better when compared with offline advertising. Internet has become a major and effective medium for advertising and it has been predicted that the online advertising and marketing is soon going to replace the advertising through traditional Medias such as television, radio, newspaper and magazines.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc., together with its digital network, currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

    CRWE’s digital network is designed, on behalf of its clients, to bring together targeted high-income audiences and advertisers on its financial websites that include, among others, DrStockPick.com, PennyOmega.com, BestOtc.com, CRWEFinance.com, CRWESelect.com, CRWEPicks.com and StockHotTips.com.

    Please Visit Crown Equity Holdings Inc. website http://www.crownequityholdings.com

    Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

    Biomass as a fuel source also includes “biogas’ fuels. For example, methane recovered from landfills can be combusted to produce electricity. This technology reduces fugitive methane releases (a major greenhouse gas) and produces a useful commodity. Another source of biogas is farms; dairy waste products (manure and other material) can be placed into a “digester” where microbacterial decomposition produces combustible gases. This technique can also be applied at waste water treatment facilities.

    Cleantech Transit, Inc. is in the business of producing and conserving power. They produce and sell clean electricity globally, with a focus on sustainable energies using renewable resources such as Geothermal, Solar and Wind. Cleantech Transit, Inc goal is to use innovative technologies to reduce electricity consumption and dependence on carbon based energy.

    Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company’s manufacturing clients worldwide.

    Cleantech Transit Inc. is pleased to provide additional details after achieving success on the 500 KW facility and successfully moving past the interconnection testing stage.

    Coming on the recent success at the 500KW facility in Merced, California this poises Phoenix Energy to become a leading developer of renewable biomass distributed generation plants that utilize local resources for local energy.

    Currently there are two additional projects being pre-certified by Phoenix Energy in California. The projects are each projected to be 1 MW biomass gasification facilities that will provide both electricity and process heat energy. Each facility will provide enough electricity to power approximately 800 homes as well as process heat to be used in drying agricultural products. The projects are expected to complete by the end of 2012.

    Cleantech will be providing details on the expecting closing date of its initial investment into Phoenix Energy in the coming weeks.

    For more information about Cleantech Transit, Inc. visit its website www.cleantechtransitinc.com

    Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE:RAD) announced that David Kelly, a development and real estate veteran with over 25 years experience, has joined Rite Aid as Group Vice President of Construction. His appointment has become effective on May 3, 2011.

    Rite Aid Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates retail drugstores in the United States. The company’s drugstores primarily offer pharmacy services.

    Headwaters Inc. (NYSE:HW) announced Breen Energy Solutions and Headwaters Resources, Inc. have entered into a joint development and commercialization agreement for Headwaters Resources’ Gas Phase Ammonia Slip Mitigation Technology. The patented technology is used at coal-fueled power plants to correct problems that can arise during the operation of emissions control equipment.

    Headwaters Incorporated provides products, technologies, and services in the building products, construction material, and energy industries primarily in the United States and Canada.

    LaBranche & Co. Inc. (NYSE:LAB) and Cowen Group, Inc. (”Cowen”) (NASDAQ:COWN) jointly announced that Institutional Shareholder Services, Inc. (”ISS”), a leading proxy advisory firm, has recommended that LaBranche stockholders vote “FOR” the adoption of the merger agreement between Cowen and LaBranche and that Cowen stockholders vote “FOR” the issuance of shares of Cowen Class A common stock to LaBranche stockholders pursuant to the merger at their upcoming respective special meeting of stockholders scheduled to be held on June 15, 2011.

    LaBranche & Co Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a registered broker-dealer. It operates as market-maker in options, futures, and exchange-traded funds (ETF) traded on various exchanges.

    Target-Date Mutual Funds Continue Gains, Ibbotson Reports

    As target-date funds increase in popularity with investors, Ibbotson Associates said these funds experienced their fourth consecutive quarter of positive gains during the first quarter of 2010.

    Of the 332 funds Ibbotson monitored with at least a one-year track record included in the study, the average increase was 3.8% for the quarter, which was down from the fourth quarter's 4% return. Over a period of 12 months, the funds rose 43%.

    Tom Idzorek, chief investment officer and director of research at Ibbotson, said in a statement that the funds were boosted by surging markets and gains in most asset classes.

    The best performers for the period included U.S. small-cap-value equity and real estate, which both saw a return of 10%. In fixed-income categories, high-yield bonds led the way with a 4.6% return for the period. Over the past 12 months, real estate experienced returns of 107%, followed by emerging-markets equity, with a return of 82%.

    Emphasizing the importance of target-date funds to investors, a recent study by Vanguard showed that its defined contribution (DC) plans offering target-date funds increased from 13% of plans in 2004, to 75% in 2009.

    Jean Young, a researcher at the Vanguard Center for Retirement Research and co-author of the report, said in a statement, "This level of support indicates the funds' importance to the future of retirement savings and runs counter to the views of some critics that they are not suitable investment options."

    Read a story on Roger Ibbotson's speech on investing during the Morningstar Ibbotson Asset Allocation conference from the archives of InvestmentAdvisor.com.

    Today in Commodities: TGIF After Volatile Week

    With the crazy volatility, I am happy this week is over. Not that it has not been profitable, but these wild swings have my blood pressure on the rise.

    Inside day in Crude today, but after a range of nearly $8 yesterday I’m not sure what you can read into that. Clients have been advised to exit their futures all together or to pare down their position size, as we expect a $10 move in the next few weeks but do not have a strong opinion in either direction. A possible strategy could be to buy out of the money calls and puts in April or May, trying to capitalize on a volatile swing in either direction. Short covering was the likely culprit in natural gas' 3.50% advance today. We suggest buying at these levels in either futures or call spreads, anticipating a move back near $4.50 in the May contract. The indices were higher in today’s session but will end lower on the week for the first time in the last four weeks. Look for guidance early next week to see if this is the start of a bigger correction or just a pause in uptrend.

    The U.S. dollar held the support from three weeks ago but we would like further evidence before making any calls on direction. The Swissie is showing initial signs of a top, so our only suggestion currently is buying dips in the yen.

    We started working some aggressive clients long live cattle today; purchasing June call options. Next week look for bullish suggestions in the futures market.

    Gold and silver recovered most of the ground they lost yesterday. We would like to still see a trade closer to $1350 and $30, respectively, before re-establishing bullish plays for clients. We may in fact miss this trade … yes, folks, that is possible.

    Next week we may explore getting short cocoa and long sugar, so stay tuned. Cotton was up limit today and coffee was higher by just over 1%. We like being short and have clients positioned in bearish ratio spreads looking for lower ground in the coming weeks.

    Ag was higher on the day; clients booked profits on their soybean oil and have put in a profit order on their recently purchased corn. On a trade to new highs they should hit their profit objectives. The soybean spread has likely seen its worst as well (long July/short November).

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

    Was Jerry Pushed at Yahoo!?

    We'll perhaps never know the answer to this question but was Jerry Yang pushed out of Yahoo!(YHOO) or did he leave on his own accord?

    It's just speculation on my part, but I suspect that Jerry looked ahead at the possible scenarios facing him and the board in the coming months and decided it was better for him to leave now with his head held high.

    See if (YHOO) is in our portfolio

    What Jerry was facing about a month from now was the possibility of a major proxy battle from Dan Loeb. Loeb is Yahoo!'s second largest stock holder and has previously called on Yang to step down, along with Chairman Roy Bostock. Next month, Loeb -- as well as any other Yahoo! shareholder -- could have given the company notice that they were running an alternate slate of directors to replace Yahoo!'s current board.That vote likely wouldn't have happened until June, but there was a very real possibility that Loeb's slate would have won, given the anemic stock price and the years of quiet neglect by this board.In that case, Yang could have been summarily tossed out of the company he founded.Over the past few weeks, I've wondered whether Jerry was willing to take a chance fighting Loeb. After all, Jerry and the Yahoo! board faced Carl Icahn in a proxy battle in 2008 and won. That was after they turned down the Microsoft(MSFT) offer, so you would have thought shareholders would've supported Icahn in droves.They didn't, because ultimately they didn't trust Icahn would do a better job than the status quo. Yang might have gambled that Loeb would be as ineffective as Icahn. He wouldn't have been, and I'm sure Jerry understood that.This way, he goes out with his head high and the major shareholders of the company will always appreciate that he took the high road instead of trying to fight against their interests.

    The rest of the company's board will now be significantly changed. Kara Swisher of AllThingsD is now reporting that at least four other directors will follow Yang out the door.

    The new board will have one objective: To maximize shareholder value. And most of them sitting around the table will have some very clear ideas of how to do that, with some very real skin in the game.

    At the time of the publication of this article, Eric Jackson was long on Yahoo!.

    >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

    Some mutual funds are asking to be sold

    You can sell a mutual fund for any number of reasons. You have to pay a child's tuition, for example. You want to travel. Or perhaps you want to build a creature in the basement.

    Those aren't the only reasons for selling your fund. But before you send your fund into the outer darkness, you need to understand why you bought the fund.

    The first reason to buy a fund is as a core holding � that is, you've decided how much of your overall portfolio should be in stocks, and purchased a fund because it fits your goals and your temperament as an investor.

    Just because a fund is a core holding, however, doesn't mean that it's exempt from being sold. Here are three scenarios for selling a core holding:

    �The Apple syndrome. Apple now accounts for about 20% of the Standard & Poor's technology sector. That's not because Steve Jobs held S&P analysts hostage in a Silicon Valley warehouse, although he may have toyed with the idea. It's because S&P indexes give more weight to larger companies.

    Similarly, you may have a stock fund that has turned into a larger position than you'd like. Don't laugh. It happens. For example, suppose you'd invested $10,000 in 1992. You put $6,000 in a typical stock fund, and $4,000 into a typical government bond fund.

    By March 31, 2000, your stock fund would have grown to 79% of your portfolio. Your bond fund � theoretically there to offset stock losses � would have been less effective than you wanted it to be. Your portfolio would have fallen 27% during the 2000-02 bear market.

    But let's say that at the end of every year, you rebalanced. You sold enough of your winning fund to get the balance back to a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. You would have lost 16%, rather than 27%.

    Lagging returns
    These funds, all with $1 billion or more in assets, have lagged their peers for the past one, three and five years.
    Total return
    Fund3 years5 years
    Thrivent Large Cap Stock A67%-1%
    CGM Focus33%-6%
    Invesco Constellation A64%-6%
    Brandywine Blue51%-8%
    Pioneer Value A59%-17%
    Dividends, gains reinvested through March 31. Source: Lipper.

    �The BlackBerry syndrome.Research In Motion, maker of the once-ubiquitous BlackBerry smartphone, hit a high of $147.55 in June of 2008. It swooned to a low of $12.52 in December.

    Bad news? Of course. But if your fund has taken a considerable hit, and it's in a taxable account, sell it to get the tax loss and reinvest in another fund, says Gary Schatsky, a New York financial planner. You can't reinvest in the same fund for 30 days, or the IRS will disallow your loss.

    But taking the loss provides some comfort. You can use your losses to offset any amount of gains. If you have leftover losses, you can deduct up to $3,000 from your income. And you can carry any additional losses into the next tax year.

    �The Magellan syndrome. Most people buy stock mutual funds because they believe in the manager. If your fund company changes managers, you may want to sell the fund.

    Fidelity Magellan fund is an interesting example. After superstar manager Peter Lynch exited the fund in 1990, Magellan's next two managers, Morris Smith and Jeff Vinik, turned in good performances, but subsequent managers have turned the fund into a loser, lagging all but 5% of its peers the past 10 years, Morningstar says.

    You shouldn't give your fund a decade. Most fund companies will give a manager the boot if he lags his peers for the past three years, and that's not a bad rule of thumb for you, either.

    The obvious cure to worrying about management is to buy index funds, which almost always charge less in ongoing expenses. "I'd hope you put your core holdings into index funds," says Sheldon Jacobs, author of Investing Without Wall Street.

    Not all of your holdings are likely to be core holdings, however. Most people own a few specialty funds, such as health care or real estate funds. "Sector funds are clearly a crapshoot," Schatsky says. "You're taking front-page news and using that to try and make a profit."

    Given that a sector fund is primarily for short- to intermediate-term investing, you need to take a fairly coldhearted view of the fund. The easiest way is to set a stop-loss limit, selling if the fund falls by 10% from its most recent high. If you're dead wrong, you'll only lose 10%.

    Some funds are so specialized, however, that they aren't worth bothering with. For example, you can now buy a fund that invests entirely in companies involved with solid-state hard drives. These are computer storage devices, used mainly in tablets, that are made up of memory chips.

    Sold-state hard drives are swell. But it's a foolishly specialized sector. You'd be better off using your money for that creature in the basement.

    John Waggoner is a personal finance columnist for USA TODAY. His Investing column appears Fridays. See an index of Waggoner's columns. His book,Bailout: What the Rescue of Bear Stearns and the Credit Crisis Mean for Your Investments, is available through John Wiley & Sons. John's e-mail is jwaggoner@usatoday.com. On Twitter: www.twitter.com/johnwaggoner.

    Treasurys rise for first day in five

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � Treasury prices rose Wednesday, pushing long-term yields down for the first day in five, after the government�s auction of 5-year notes and as concerns about Europe weighed on investors appetite for riskier assets.

    Yields on 10-year notes 10_YEAR �, which move inversely to prices, fell 6 basis points to 2%, after trading near the highest level in a month in the prior session.

    A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    Click to Play Euro-zone continues to contract

    The euro zone's composite purchasing managers index for February shows a sharp drop, raising fears that the region's economy is contracting.

    Thirty-year yields 30_YEAR �slipped 6 basis points to 3.15%, off their highest level since October.

    Five-year yields 5_YEAR �declined 5 basis points to 0.86%, from their highest level since late December.

    �A sense of caution continues to pervade European markets ever since the Greek deal,� said Bill O�Donnell, head of Treasury strategy at RBS Securities, referring to European ministers� agreement to extend a second bailout to debt-strapped Greece.

    �Markets are also asking the next obvious question about Portugal and Ireland� � nations that previously took bailout funds and may now ask for more favorable terms, he said. See blog on Europe�s impact on global bond outlook.

    Treasury bonds have sold off recently as stocks gained thanks to optimism about a deal for Greece as well as fading worries the country could default on its debt. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �on Tuesday touched the 13,000 level for the first time on an intraday basis since May 2008.

    That U.S. stock markets stand poised near key highs �may argue for a pause in the recent rise in Treasury yields,� O�Donnell said.

    U.S. stock indexes struggled Wednesday, showing modest losses in afternoon trading. Read story on U.S. stocks.

    Effect of rising oil prices

    Treasurys held their gains after a report showed sales of existing homes rose 4.3% in January. See story on existing homes sales.

    Bond analysts have also noted the rise in crude-oil futures, which may weigh on consumer spending as gasoline prices rise.

    �A continued rise in the oil complex would be a challenge to risk assets, a hit to consumption, and a boost to Treasurys,� O�Donnell said.

    On the flip side, rising crude is also pushing inflation expectations up slightly, though not to any extremes. Rising inflation is a threat to bond investors because it reduces the value of their fixed payments. See blog on inflation expectations.

    Make a Leap From Limited to Gap

    One of the most successful specialty retailers in the U.S. — or anywhere else, for that matter — is Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), owner of both the Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works brands. Same-store sales are jumping, and that has Limited’s stock bumping up against its 52-week high. Morgan Stanley believes LTD will�outperform�during the upcoming holiday season. There’s no reason to think it won’t. However, in a contrarian pick, I’ll tell you why now is the time to sell Limited Brands stock and buy Gap (NYSE:GPS) instead.

    International Expansion

    By the end of 2012, Limited Brands�expects�to have 880 stores open overseas. Its plans include opening two company-owned locations in the United Kingdom, and its franchise partner in the Middle East, M.H. Alshaya Co., intends to open Victoria’s Secret stores in some of its markets.

    At Limited�s annual meeting Oct. 19, investors peppered the company with questions about why it didn’t have a more concrete plan for international growth. Especially when you consider that most of its international expansion to date is its 463 La Senza franchise locations outside of Canada. According to the company, its international stores (outside North America) totaled 580 as of the beginning of 2011.

    Let’s assume this is correct — although I challenge you to figure out how Limited arrived at this number, because I can’t. It means the company will have to open 300 stores in 17 months to reach its stated goal for 2012. That’s an average of 18 store openings per month. It’s certainly doable, but the lack of detail provided at the annual meeting raises doubt that it will happen. Evidently, the company has enough business in North America to keep it busy. We’ll see.

    Future Growth

    Limited�s chairman and CEO, Les Wexner, is a brilliant businessperson. There’s no doubt about it. Going slowly and making sure the right management team is in place in the 10 or so international markets where Limited wants to do business — that�s all well and good. What is a problem is expecting that you can afford to take your time �rolling out overseas because your U.S. and Canadian stores are doing so well. Consumers are a fickle bunch, and although their discretionary income is flowing generously into Limited�s stores now, it might not always be this way.

    Wexner suggests the company�s U.S. stores could hit $18 billion (a 100% increase) in revenues within five years. That’s a lofty figure. Any bit of bad news would seriously impede Limited�s ability to reach that goal, and without a fallback plan for international markets, LTD could deal shareholders some serious surprises. With the exception of Coach (NYSE:COH) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF), Limited Brands’ enterprise value to EBITDA is one of the highest in retail. It might not make you sell, but it should make you stop and think.

    Gap’s Future

    Amid all the bad economic news, Gap�s international�expansion, combined with a booming e-commerce business, could deliver a three-pronged retail model that ultimately strengthens the company, not weakens it.

    On the international front, it now has stores in the U.K., France, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Japan and China. These stores contributed 15% of revenue in the second quarter of 2011, and e-commerce another 9%. All told, Gap�s North American stores generated 76% of its overall revenue, while international stores and e-commerce generated 24%.

    With the reduction in the number of Gap stores in the U.S. to 700 by 2013, along with the company’s plan to shrink the size of its Old Navy stores, Gap�s North American business will be more appropriately sized given its sales volume. At the same time, by the end of 2012. the company will open its first Old Navy store in Japan, 30 more Gap stores in greater China (to go with the 15 already there) and its first Banana Republic store in Paris. When all of this is done, Gap should generate over 20% of its revenue from international sales.

    On the e-commerce front, the company plans to generate $2 billion in revenue by 2014, up from $1.3 billion in 2010. More important, its operating profit from that revenue will be approximately $500 million, or 25% of sales. That’s double any of its retail stores.

    Along those same lines, Gap plans to open 50 Athleta stores by the end of 2013. Until this year, Athleta was an online-only alternative to rival Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU). Now that Gap is opening brand-specific stores, it can further chip away at Lulu’s dominance. Don’t be surprised if this is what brings Gap back from the brink.

    Reload - What Is The "Ultimate Weapon" In An Insane Market?

    Joe DeFranco - DeFranco's is a physical training center for elite athletes.

    In Wyckoff New Jersey there is a Physical Training center for elite athletes called �DeFranco�s�, owned and operated by legendary hard-core physical trainer, Joe Defranco. �DeFranco�s�, established in 2003 is a mecca for some of the best athletes in the world, which includes over 50 NFL players, Olympic athletes from all over the globe, as well as superstars from the wildly popular sport of mixed martial arts. DeFranco pioneered the warehouse-type training center devoid of juice bars, showers and even air conditioning in which elite athletes �train to failure� for the sole purpose of the love of training and the possibility of becoming a champion in their chosen sports. His hard�core warehouse gym has been named one of the top ten gyms in America by Men�s Health  Magazine and featured on such networks as ESPN, The NFL network and Spike TV. I had the opportunity to be featured in a documentary about Defranco�s in a movie called �Strong�. His standards could best be summarized by his goal for the athletes he trains, which is prominently displayed on the home page of his website �turn your body into a weapon�.

    Having known Joe for ten years, he adheres to a philosophy that if an athlete is to become the best in his sport, he must not only be strong, fast and have tremendous endurance but he or she must be �a perfect weapon� � they must have a relentless desire to become the best and to never give up. He considers �mental toughness� and �unwavering discipline� to be the two most important characteristics of a champion. He often uses the quote that there are only two pains in life, �the pain of discipline and the pain of regret�.

    In many ways investing has numerous similarities to DeFranco�s philosophy, especially when it comes to discipline and mental toughness. It is these principles which will lead an investor to invest with discipline and therefore eliminate the �regrets� that virtually every investor encounters during their lifetime. It is these two qualities which separate great investors from mediocre investors and it�s these two qualities that I consider the �ULTIMATE WEAPON�.

    As the year draws to a close, investors all over the world are most likely feeling that they are in the fourth quarter of a brutal game, playing injured and hoping that they could endure to the end and maybe walk away with a victory. They probably feel as if they are in the last round of a mixed martial arts championship fight � battered, bruised and bleeding with barely enough strength to keep their arms up as their opponent tries to land the last �fatal punch or kick to the head�. Like the athlete in the �ironman� competition trying to finish the last event when exhaustion has made them delusional, feeling as if their losing control of their physical bodies, with only their �will� to help them cross the finish line.

    As of today, the S&P 500 is virtually unchanged year to date. Investors who have stayed invested in stock have experienced unprecedented volatility. From the end of May to early October, they have seen a plunge of nearly 20% and a surge in the last few weeks which erased much of the plunge and left their portfolios virtually unchanged from this time last year or in some case lower, even much lower. In other words, it�s been an insane ride to end up just where you started.

    It is market volatility like this which is like the aforementioned mixed martial arts fighter who stumbles into the final round fearful of that �final� lethal round house kick or punch to the body that would break a rib, feeling defenseless and afraid that not only will they lose the fight but they will lose everything they�ve worked their whole life for � which is to become a champion in the sport they love.

    It is this same type of �fear� that characterizes the �mood of the market� today and is the reason for these high levels of volatility and the reason that volatile markets never end well. It�s the �fear of the unknown�, the one event, whether it be the complete and absolute failure to contain the European Debt crisis, the failure of our government to get our out-of-control deficit under control or perhaps the high probability of a worldwide banking crisis which could send this market �to the canvass� � in some cases destroying the portfolios that investors sacrificed their whole lives to build.

    Although we (at Sica Wealth Management), have not achieved �mind blowing� double digit returns for our investors this year, we �did not� participate in much of the market volatility. We �did not� see our portfolios plunge 20% over the summer, nor did we participate in the market surge of the past few weeks. In other words, we are not battered, bloodied and bruised because we reduced our 15% stock position at the beginning of the summer to virtually zero in stock by summer�s end, not out of complacency but out of discipline. It is the �discipline� to know that there are too many �unknowns� and too much volatility to �trust� this markets ability to recover overnight. A successful investor knows that the �ultimate discipline� is to not chase rallies based on virtually nothing or listen to the �so called� experts who work for banks or financial institutions, whose survival depends on the market going up. I used to call them market cheerleaders, until my daughter Nina became a cheerleader and realized that it was offensive to cheerleaders to compare them to big banks and financial institutions � so, I will have to figure out another name to call them.

    In the immortal words of Greenbay Packers coach Vince Lombardi, �fatigue makes cowards of us all�. We are in a market that is fatigued � to not participate in this volatility is to not become fatigued. We are not fatigued and by no means cowards. Joe DeFranco says that, �the most important factor in an athlete�s success is what they do in the off season�. It is not a time to be lying on the beach on a tropical island but to get disciplined, work like you�ve never worked before, study your opponents and mentally develop strategies to defeat them, especially by studying their flaws and inconsistencies. The market should always be viewed as �the opponent� with many flaws and inconsistencies which can be �taken advantage of� at the right time. Study it relentlessly and never make yourself vulnerable to it when its volatility is overpowering you. As Joe DeFranco trains athletes to turn their bodies into weapons, investors should strive to turn their investment strategies into weapons and be mentally tough enough to never give up.

    In recent weeks some people have been critical of our not participating in this recent market surge � my response is � we are simply Re-loading.

    Lorillard: A Solid Buy for Dividend Investors

    This month, I recommend you buy Lorillard (NYSE:LO), a high-yielding tobacco stock that has been able to consistently grow its earnings via strong organic growth.

    Lorillard manufactures and sells 43 different cigarette brands — with Newport, Kent, True, Maverick and Old Gold the best-known brand names — and the company has been especially successful since the global economic slowdown with its cheaper brands as it targets blue-collar smokers.

    I’m already invested in Lorillard’s bigger tobacco peers, Altria Group (NYSE:MO) and Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI), and although Lorillard is about a third the size of Altria and less than half the size of Reynolds, its most recent earnings beat shows that the company has been able to strongly grow revenues and actually is taking market share from these larger companies.

    After adding Lorillard to your portfolio, you also should consider owning Altria, Reynolds and Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM). All four of these companies are strong dividend payers and have been posting solid earnings results.

    For example, Lorillard recently announced that its fourth-quarter sales rose 8.7% to $1.62 billion, compared with $1.49 billion in the same quarter a year ago. During the same period, Lorillard’s earnings rose 33.3% to $310 million, or $2.32 per share, compared with $259 million, or $1.74 per share. The analyst community was expecting earnings of $1.94 per share and sales of $1.09 billion, so the company posted a 12.8% earnings surprise and an amazing 48.6% sales surprise.

    Also noteworthy is that Lorillard boosted its quarterly dividend by 19% to $1.55 per share, up from $1.30 per share, which effectively raised its annual dividend yield to over 5% from 4.2%.

    Finally, Lorillard is aggressively buying back its outstanding stock at an annual pace of more than $1 billion per year, and the company bought back 3.3 million shares in Q4 at a cost of $366 million.

    Should You Trust the Anti-Wall Street Crowd With Your Money?

    For a town with a census population of 2,073, Eureka Springs, Ark., has acquired more than its fair share of nicknames over the years: America's Victorian Village, Stair-Step Town, Wedding Capital of the South, even Little Switzerland of the Ozarks. But spend a few hours talking with Sheryl Garrett, one of this mountain hamlet's prominent citizens, and you may come away adding another: the New Wall Street.

    In the August Issue
    • The Return of Fossil Fuels
    • I Love My Real Estate Broker
    • Should You Trust the Anti-Wall Street Crowd With Your Money?
    • 10 Things the Olympics Won't Tell You

    In the span of a dozen years, Garrett, a soft-spoken 50-year-old transplant to Eureka Springs (she's from Kansas), has amassed a network of about 325 financial advisers, catering to some 25,000 clients around the country. The "global headquarters" for this operation is Garrett's modest two-story home, a short walk from

    Myrtie Mae's, a popular eatery, where on a recent springlike Monday the founder of the Garrett Planning Network has come to talk about her strategy for upending the $14 trillion financial-services industry. Indeed, between lusty bites of Myrtie's famed "country recipe" chicken, she begins to sound as if she's leading a pitchfork rebellion against the Merrills and J.P. Morgans of the world.

    Her plan is to stick to a fee-only system, with no commissions that might sway advisers the wrong way, and to operate under a strict fiduciary standard -- one that obligates advisers to work in the best interests of their clients. In the process, she claims, financial-planning costs will come way, way down for "the 83 percenters" -- the middle-class Main Street investors who, Garrett says, have been shunned by the century-old broker-dealers. And while her mission is not yet finished, one thing is eminently clear by the time she finishes lunch: Garrett doesn't lack the confidence to pull it off. "I'd like to be the H&R Block of financial advice," she says.

    But if this is the future of portfolio planning for America, it's going to come as a surprise to anyone accustomed to the old pin-striped-suit model, with brokers at brand-name Wall Street houses reciting their firm's "strategic outlook" and touting the company's line of stocks and funds. Unlike traditional brokerage houses, Garrett's network doesn't instruct its far-flung advisory firms -- known in the industry as registered investment advisers, or RIAs -- on what investments to pick for clients. It doesn't have a squad of researchers selecting stocks and studying economic trends. Nor does it demand that "franchisees" commit to having a key industry credential (the certified financial planner accreditation) until five years after they join the network -- or even commit to financial planning as a full-time career. One in five Garrett advisers, in fact, is a part-timer. "A good number," explains Garrett, "are semiretired."

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    Close Photograph by Gregg Segal for SmartMoney

    Joe Duran says his "honest-conversation cards" get even the most stoic clients to find their financial "place of happiness."

    • $6.1 billion: Assets under management at United Capital
    • 33: Branch offices, in 26 cities
    • $865,000: Average size of a client account

    And yet, to the surprise of many industry watchers, the RIA movement, for lack of a better word, has been winning more than its share of happy converts. Already, such non-Wall Street advisory firms control some $1.4 trillion in assets, compared with $5 trillion for traditional brokerages. Since 2004, the number of RIAs has jumped 31 percent, to nearly 21,000, according to research firm Cerulli, even as the big financial firms have shed brokers by the boatload. Some say the shift is just the latest example of how fed up Americans are with the retirement advice they got before the crash of 2008. Others think the RIA model is just, well, more consumer-friendly. Either way, Alois Pirker, an industry analyst with Boston research firm Aite Group, thinks the old guard better wake up: "They need to take the competition seriously."

    So who are these scrappy outsiders -- and why do their playbooks and rules differ so much from those of big Wall Street firms? The answers, perhaps no surprise, depend on whom you ask. The brokerage houses insist these newer outfits aren't the game-changers they claim to be. "Any RIA who argues that their way of doing business is best for each and every investor is simply blowing smoke," scoffs James Wiggins, a managing director for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The upstarts, though, say all that smoke is coming from a genuine investor brushfire. "You see this mass exodus" from the old-school firms, says Garrett, "because of one reason: trust." Many people, she says, no longer feel comfortable leaving their money to "these black-box entities." We caught up with her and two other outside-the-box players in what is becoming a rather high-stakes game.

    Fair warning to anyone who finds himself on the opposite end of a sales pitch from Joe Duran: He isn't likely to let up. When we meet Duran, the chief executive of United Capital, a prominent RIA outfit based in Newport Beach, Calif., he's in full-throttle PowerPoint mode -- explaining why the fellow sitting across from him needs to join Duran's own revolution in the financial-advice realm. The 44-year-old Duran, who exudes a kind of casual suavity befitting his British colonial accent, a byproduct of his days growing up in Zimbabwe, has little interest in a pitchfork rebellion. His is more of an oyster fork. Duran's sights are set on wooing "mass affluent" advice seekers (those with investible assets between $500,000 and $5 million) away from Wall Street wire houses -- and part of his strategy for getting there is to acquire, shall we say, a bit of scale. Since 2005, Duran has built United Capital into a national brand, with a brick-and-mortar presence in 26 cities and $6 billion under management; but he's nowhere near done, he says. United Capital has already rolled up 41 smaller advisory firms and has plans to acquire another 75 in the next three years. And that's why James Pierik, the owner of a small financial firm in San Diego, is facing Joe Duran's unrelenting PowerPoint attack.

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    Close Photograph by Robyn Twomey for SmartMoney

    Financial planning "should be a discussion that takes about eight minutes," says Ken Fisher. The rest is "mumbo jumbo."

    • $43 billion: Assets under management at Fisher Investments
    • 0: Branch offices; advisers counsel by e-mail and phone
    • $1 million: Average size of a client account

    Slide by slide, Duran tells Pierik why his three-employee outfit, which manages $220 million spread over 1,000-plus accounts, doesn't have the staffing to adequately service its current clients, much less grow the ranks. "The more important you are to the business," says Duran, "the less valuable the business is." Now, if Pierik would just sell his sleepy little firm to.... About an hour later, Pierik looks shell-shocked.

    Duran, it turns out, has a history of empire building: Before joining United Capital, he helmed an advisory firm called Centurion Capital Group, which grew its assets from $100 million to $2 billion in less than a decade. (GE Financial Assurance Holdings purchased it in 2001 for what Duran will only call a nine-figure sum.) For this go-round, though, he insists his aim is not just to get big but also to create a model for financial advice that goes far beyond minding a client's investment portfolio. United Capital casts itself as a kind of berplanner, offering assistance on everything from estate planning to insurance coverage. (It also often manages its clients' money -- Duran has a five-person investment committee, which oversees seven core portfolio strategies.) For all this holistic hand-holding, the company charges, on average, a flat annual fee of 1.8 percent of assets (including product costs), or about $9,000 a year for a $500,000 portfolio.

    Despite the Manhattan-level fees, Duran's approach is surprisingly California in feel -- deliberately touchy-feely, if not an outright New Age clich . (Duran, an Ashtanga yoga acolyte, has been known to do a headstand for six minutes straight.) United Capital advisers are trained to engage new clients in what Duran dubs Honest Conversations on seemingly nonfinancial topics. ("You're planning a child's birthday party. What's your top priority?") The aim, he says, is to get at the root of his client's financial goals and concerns -- and the plus for advisers, Duran acknowledges, is that the conversations are billable. The responses, he says, tend to be more informative than those to boilerplate questions such as "When would you like to retire?" But even touchy-feely can devolve into formulaic shtick, and some financial pros say Duran's heart-to-hearts are no more probing -- or useful -- than the standard financial assessment that advisers have been using for years. Duran responds that his approach lets advisers go deeper into an investor's psyche -- or, as he puts it, their "place of happiness" and "place of fear" -- and that leads them to a more appropriate choice of investments.

    And not surprisingly, as United Capital expands, it's also attracting a whole other line of criticism from within the industry. Some question whether the rapid pace of United Capital's growth -- the firm's client base has more than doubled in the past two years -- is in the best interest of its customers. With $31 million in funding from outside investors, the pressure to show shareholders a return on investment is substantial, experts say -- and Duran doesn't rule out the possibility that the firm may go public or sell itself in the coming years. Some contend that could leave clients suddenly in the hands of caretaker advisers they don't know. Duran, for his part, says his company "will always be completely in line with our clients' interests." But even fans like James Pierik say they worry a bit about how big and fast United Capital is growing. Duran's PowerPoint muscle notwithstanding, Pierik ultimately nixed the sale of his small advisory firm. "If I knew Joe was going to be there long-term," he says, "it would have been a no-brainer."

    As huge as Joe Duran's aspirations seem to be, market maven Ken Fisher has already amassed an operation that manages some seven times the assets of United Capital. With 26,000 U.S. clients and with satellite operations as far away as Germany, Fisher Investments is by some measures the largest RIA in the country -- but don't let its size make you think there's anything conventional about the model. The 61-year-old investing guru says he's not there to walk his clients through a mortgage application or to help them pick an insurance policy. He's there merely to plot their portfolio. In fact, he doesn't even place much value in meeting with investors face-to-face. The vast majority of the firm's clients communicate with their investment counselor by phone a few times a year; the only in-person contact they typically have with a company representative comes at market-focused seminars and other events held around the country.

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    Close Photograph by Dero Sanford for SmartMoney

    Leading the charge from Arkansas, Sheryl Garrett aims to bring advice to "the 83%" of Americans Wall Street ignores.

    • 325: Advisers in the Garrett Planning Network
    • 25,000: Clients the network now serves
    • $180 to $240: Hourly rate to speak with an adviser

    If this mostly go-it-alone model sounds a bit quirky, it's pretty much a reflection of Fisher, a self-made billionaire who invariably flies coach ("I sleep really well in planes no matter where I am," he says), lets his cats have free rein of his corporate headquarters, and seems to have few interests beyond investing (he's written eight books on the subject) and enjoying the ancient redwoods surrounding his Woodside, Calif., home. (A redwood tree "doesn't die when it is cut down," Fisher points out, knowingly. It's the sort of thing someone says to be inspirational -- but it sounds a bit scary when he says it.)

    Despite the fact that he practically came into the industry as a matter of birthright -- his late father, Philip Fisher, is a Wall Street legend who helped give rise to the concept of growth investing -- he's always been something of an outsider. He's also faced plenty of jeers from investing professionals who say he is too equity-centric -- particularly in a postcrash, volatile world. Others say his view of financial planning as a mere adjunct to stock picking is also misguided. And that may be one of the more surprising twists in the RIA revolution, experts say: For what makes Fisher's evident success in gathering assets -- and grabbing market share from traditional Wall Street firms -- so remarkable, say some industry pros, is that he's a lot more like an old-school broker than an adviser. (Fisher says he adheres to the same fiduciary standard required of all RIAs and has a similar cost structure -- he charges a flat annual fee, typically between 1 and 1.25 percent of a client's total assets.)

    The biggest controversy surrounding Fisher, however, concerns his prospecting approach -- his strategy of building his client base through junk mail (a description he, too, uses) and other blanket marketing. Critics have said his sales tactics are overly aggressive, including to potential customers who may not fully understand what they're buying. Last year, a California arbitrator ruled Fisher's firm may be liable for at least $376,000 after determining that it "breached its fiduciary duty" to an investor who claimed she was placed too heavily in stocks, given her financial situation. (The client and her attorney declined to comment.) Fisher says his marketing practices are appropriate, but he declined to talk specifically about the case, other than to say it is his first arbitration loss in seven years, a respectable track record given the company's size, he contends. Other former clients, however, say they, too, have been disappointed. Rand Hoch, an attorney in West Palm Beach, Fla., says he went with Fisher because "he advertised he had a good record of going to cash before the markets tanked." But when they did just that in 2008, Hoch says, his portfolio nonetheless plummeted 37 percent.

    Fisher brushes off the criticism, saying clients have a variety of portfolio options and pointing to his many correct calls over the years -- he did, for example, warn of the tech bubble in March 2000, just a month before the sector went into a downward spiral. What really makes him bristle, however, is what he calls the mumbo jumbo of other RIA models -- the ones, he says, in which advisers profess expertise in areas they don't know and sell clients on strategies or products they don't need. Fisher believes most financial planning ultimately comes down to seeking the right investment solutions, based on a few questions: "How much money do you have? What is the primary purpose for it?" Says Fisher, "It should be a discussion that takes about eight minutes."

    Back in Eureka Springs, Sheryl Garrett agrees with Ken Fisher about one thing: The financial-advisory industry is on the wrong track. But Garrett says the mistake is that advisers have been so focused on the mass affluent they've all but ignored the mass market. Too many RIAs are built around a fee-based asset-management model for clients who are able to invest $500,000 or more, she says: Main Street investors, says Garrett, need basic advice on saving for a child's college fund or making sure the family's insurance covers what it should -- same goes for portfolio management. "Regular people need direction on investments," she says, and "they can't all afford or justify paying for a Ken Fisher."

    For hourly fees that average about $200, the advisers affiliated with Garrett are hoping to offer it to them. Unlike both United Capital and Fisher Investments, the Garrett Planning Network doesn't actually have any individual clients; its affiliate firms do. Each of these RIA franchises (Garrett calls them members) pays the network an initial fee of $10,100, then an annual membership fee of $1,200. In return, they get a slew of informational materials, management tools, software and -- of course -- referrals, many of which come in by way of Garrett's website. Though a few of the planners provide asset-management services on a percentage-fee basis, all are required to offer hourly-rate planning advice, which means they might meet with clients as little as once a year -- or once a lifetime. Such arrangements, say boosters, make the cost of a little help no more expensive than the tab for a weekend hotel stay.

    The question for some skeptics, naturally, is whether that comparatively low cost for advice simply reflects the fact that clients are getting a lower grade of advice too. Some charge that while many of Garrett's planners may be adept at offering commonsense solutions and boilerplate strategies, they don't necessarily have the training to delve into more-complex financial situations. And at least one would-be client felt he couldn't trust the advisers in the network to provide solid base-level advice. Jory Olson, an electrical engineer in Portland, Ore., says he sought some referrals from the Garrett network when he needed help with his 401(k). One of the planners that was suggested to him "just didn't know what she was doing," Olson says. Garrett is quick to defend her vetting process, saying she verifies every applicant's credentials and licenses, and checks that the applicant's industry disciplinary history is free of "any client-related complaints, litigation or settlements." Still, she admits she doesn't have a minimum accreditation standard for acceptance. "A good deal" of the vetting, she says, "is subjective."

    In any case, Garrett says, the real proof of her network's merit has been its expansion. Starting with barely a handful of advisers in 2000, her professional alliance grew by double-digit percentages annually until the 2008 crash. (It has grown more slowly since then.) As she polishes off that plate of fried chicken, Garrett seems ever more confident that her firm is poised to become a huge nationwide chain -- the RIA as fast-food burger joint, if you will. And as for those other firms fighting for market share, the Planning Queen of Eureka Springs welcomes the competition. "When Burger King moves in across the street from McDonald's," she says, "they both do better."