Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Three New MLPs Headed to Market

Print Friendly

This week should see the debut of three new publicly traded partnerships.

Westlake Chemical Partners (expected ticker WLKP) was recently formed by Westlake Chemical (NYSE: WLK) to operate, acquire and develop ethylene production facilities and related assets. WLK is a manufacturer and supplier of petrochemicals, vinyls, polymers and building products produced at 16 plants across North America and one in China.

Westlake Chemical Partners' business and operations will be conducted through OpCo, a new Westlake affiliate in which WLKP will initially own a 10% limited partner stake as well as the general partner interest. WLK retained a 90% limited partner (LP) interest in OpCo and will own WLKP's general partner and 55.7% of WLKP's limited partner units, along with the incentive distribution rights.

OpCo's assets will be comprised of three production facilities that convert ethane into ethylene, which is the world's most widely used petrochemical in terms by volume. Aggregate annual capacity of the facilities is approximately 3.4 billion pounds. Assets also include the Longview Pipeline, a 200-mile ethylene pipeline with a capacity of 3.5 million pounds per day that runs from Mont Belvieu, Texas to the Longview, Texas chemical complex.

The new MLP will derive substantially all of its revenue from its ethylene production facilities. Westlake's downstream polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) production facilities will consume a substantial majority of the ethylene produced by OpCo. In connection with the IPO, OpCo will enter into a 12-year ethylene sales agreement with Westlake, under which Westlake will agree to purchase 95% of OpCo's planned ethylene production each year on a cost-plus basis that is projected to generate a fixed margin of $0.10 per pound.

The offering is expected to price on July 29 in a range of $19.00 to $21.00, generating estimated proceeds of $225 ! million. WLKP's partnership agreement provides for a minimum quarterly distribution of $0.2750 per unit for each whole quarter, or $1.10 per unit on an annualized basis. At the midpoint of the offering price, this projects to an annual yield of 5.5%.

Transocean Partners (expected ticker RIGP) is a Marshall Islands growth-oriented limited liability company recently formed by Transocean (NYSE: RIG), to own and operate a fleet of offshore drilling rigs.

Transocean owns or has partial ownership interests in 77 mobile offshore drilling units, and specializes in operations in technically demanding regions of the global offshore drilling industry, with a particular focus on ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.

Initially, Transocean Partners is to own 51% of three ultra-deepwater drilling rigs currently operating in the US Gulf of Mexico. Transocean will own the remaining 49% of each. The rigs currently operate under long-term contracts with Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and BP (NYSE: BP) with an average remaining contract term of approximately four years.

The partnership plans to grow quarterly distributions by making strategic acquisitions from Transocean or third parties. The partnership agreement calls for Transocean to grant a right of first offer to Transocean Partners for its remaining ownership interests in each of the three rigs should Transocean decide to sell such interests. Transocean is also required to offer the partnership the opportunity to purchase a least a 51% interest in four additional drillships within five years following the closing of the IPO.

The IPO will market 17.5 million shares in a projected range of $19 to $21, and was expected to price on July 30. The partnership agreement calls for an initial quarterly distribution of $0.3625 per unit for each whole quarter, or $1.45 per unit on an annualized basis, for a projected yield at the IPO midpoint of 7.25%. Notably, like many other partnerships with significant foreign or marine operati! ons, the ! partnership has chosen to pay taxes as a corporation, which means distributions will be 1099 income. (To better understand why a partnership would elect to be taxed as a corporation, see Marshalling the Marines.)

VTTI Energy Partners (expected ticker VTTI) is a Marshall Islands limited partnership formed by VTTI, one of the world's largest independent energy terminaling businesses, to provide long-term, fee-based terminaling services for customers engaged in the production, processing, distribution, and marketing of refined petroleum products and crude oil. VTTI was formed in 2006 by Vitol — one of the world's largest independent energy traders — and MISC, one of the leading maritime shippers of refined petroleum products and crude oil.

Initial assets of the partnership consist of a 36% interest in VTTI Operating, a VTTI subsidiary which owns a portfolio of six terminals with 396 tanks and 35.5 million barrels of refined petroleum product and crude oil storage capacity located in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and North America.

The parent VTTI has increased its operating storage capacity by 47.6 million barrels through organic development projects, greenfield construction and acquisitions. VTTI Energy Partners plans to continue to grow through acquisitions from VTTI or third parties, organic development opportunities, greenfield construction and optimization of existing assets.

The offering is exactly the same size as the Transocean Partners IPO — 17.5 million shares at a projected offering range of $19-$21 — and was expected to price on July 31. The partnership agreement calls for an initial quarterly distribution of $0.2625 per unit for each complete quarter, or $1.05 per unit on an annualized basis, for a projected yield at the IPO midpoint of 5.25%. Also, as in the case of Transocean Partners, VTTI Energy Partners has chosen to be taxed as a corporation and will pay 1099 income.

(Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.! )

Sunday, July 27, 2014

OSI Chairman Arrives In Shanghai, Will Meet Press Amid Meat Scandal -- Report

Sheldon Lavin, the chairman of the Aurora, Illinois meat producer at the center of a reported safety scandal that has dragged in McDonald's in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan, has arrived in Shanghai and is due to join a press conference with other senior company officials this afternoon, government-published Shanghai Daily said today.

The officials will meet with the Shanghai Food and Drug Administration this morning, the newspaper said.

An undercover Shanghai TV reporter posing as a worker at Shanghai Husi, the OSI unit involved in the alleged scandal, filmed colleagues combining expired meat with fresh cuts and then lying to McDonald's inspectors, Chinese media reported earlier this month. 

Five senior Husi executives are said to have been detained. Sales of out-of-date meat were reported to have gone on for years.    OSI, which is privately held, said in a statement on Saturday it had recalled all meat processed at the facility.

McDonald's is facing an investigation in Hong Kong linked to Shanghai Husi products, Hong Kong media have reported.

– Follow me on Twitter @rflannerychina

 

 

Thursday, July 24, 2014

SEC Approves Tighter Money Fund Rules on 3-2 Vote

The Securities and Exchange Commission passed significant amendments to the rules that govern money market mutual funds by a 3-2 vote during Wednesday’s open meeting.

Under the new rules, a floating net asset value (NAV) will be required for institutional prime money market funds, which allows the daily share prices of these funds to fluctuate along with changes in the market-based value of fund assets. Nongovernment money market fund boards will also be provided with new tools — liquidity fees and redemption gates — to address runs. 

It’s a “strong reform package that significantly mitigates the risks of a run in money market funds and that will limit further contagion should a run occur,” SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White said.

While concerns had been raised about the accounting and federal income tax implications of requiring a floating NAV, the SEC was informed that the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service would release two types of tax guidance today.

According to an SEC fact sheet, those agencies will propose new regulations "to allow floating NAV money market fund investors to use a simplified tax accounting method to track gains and losses." That will eliminate the need to track individual purchase and sale transactions for tax reporting purposes," the fact sheet says. Finally, Treasury and the IRS will also release  a new revenue procedure "that provides relief from the 'wash sale' rules for any losses on shares" of a floating NAV money market fund.

The goal of a floating NAV is to reduce the first-mover advantage inherent in a stable NAV fund, reduce the chance of unfair investor dilution and make the risk of loss more transparent to the impacted investors.

With this new rule, institutional prime money market funds (including institutional municipal money market funds) will no longer be allowed to use the special pricing and valuation conventions that currently permit them to maintain a constant share price of $1. Instead, they will be required to value their portfolio securities using market-based factors and sell and redeem shares based on a floating NAV.

“Institutional prime money market funds experienced the precipitous run during the financial crisis, and our analysis has shown that they continue to be the most susceptible to runs,” said White before the vote. “Retail and government money market funds have not to date faced significant runs even in the worst of times; in fact, investors ran to government money market funds in 2008 and the value of their portfolios appreciated. At the same time, retail investors in particular have come to rely on the liquidity and stability of money market funds, and they lack investment substitutes with similar characteristics, including those that may be available to institutional investors.”

Money market fund boards will now have the ability to impose liquidity fees and redemption gates during periods of stress. 

Under the new rules, if a money market fund’s level of weekly liquid assets falls below 30% of its total assets (the regulatory minimum), the money market fund’s board would be allowed to impose a liquidity fee of up to 2% on all redemptions. If a money market fund’s level of weekly liquid assets falls below 10%, the money market fund would be required to impose a liquidity fee of 1% on all redemptions.  /* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ To impose a "gate" under the new rules, a money market fund’s board could in its discretion temporarily suspend redemptions if the money fund’s level of weekly liquid assets falls below 30%. A money market fund that imposes a gate would be required to lift that gate within 10 business days, although the board of directors could determine to lift the gate earlier. Money market funds would not be able to impose a gate for more than 10 business days in any 90-day period.

Any fee or gate would first need to be determined by the fund’s board that it is in the best interests of the fund to be implemented.

Also included in the reform package were amendments to Form PF that would better monitor whether substantial assets migrate to private liquidity funds. The new rules will require a liquidity fund advisor managing at least $1 billion in combined money market fund and liquidity fund assets to report to the SEC basically the same portfolio information on Form PF as registered money market funds are required to report on Form N-MFP, according to the SEC fact sheet.

Commissioner Luis Aguilar addressed these changes before the vote. "While Form PF does not cover all unregulated funds or vehicles, the additional information will provide important information and transparency to the Commission," Aguilar wrote. "I expect the Commission staff to closely monitor these developments and to recommend to the Commission and, if necessary, to Congress, any possible amendments or legislative reforms needed to address the operations of these dark, less regulated markets. 

The SEC will give companies up to two years to comply with the new rules, which also included enhanced diversification, disclosure and stress testing requirements, as well as updated reporting by money market funds and private funds that operate like money market funds.

SEC commissioners Kara Stein, a Democrat, and Michael Piwowar, a Republican, voted against the changes. White, Aguilar and Daniel Gallagher voted in favor of the rule chanes.

Before the vote, Stein expressed her concerns that imposing a gate on redemptions could increase the risk of investor stampedes. Meanwhile, Piwowar worried that money funds would lose appeal among investors and questioned whether a floating NAV was the best approach.

And the vote wasn't all that favorible outside the commission, as Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, said in a statement.

“The SEC’s new rules that permit the agency to restrict money market fund redemptions (during periods that it determines are “times of stress”) greatly undermines the rationale of holding such funds. Euro Pacific Capital would suggest that our 18,000 retail clients consider these changes to determine the best course of action for their investments. We believe that the paltry yields offered by money markets may no longer adequately compensate investors for the illiquidity that would result from an arbitrarily imposed barrier to exit. We see the policy as a clumsy attempt by government to contain the damage that could result from the bursting of the asset bubbles that it has so forcefully created.”

Separately, the SEC voted unanimously to re-propose a plan to address provisions that reference credit ratings. The commission also voted unanimously on a proposal for exemptions from certain confirmation requirements for transactions effected in shares of floating NAV money market funds. 

---

Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Sunday, July 20, 2014

FOMC Minutes Tell the Tale: End of QE in Sight

Minutes from last month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting show that the U.S. Federal Reserve is readying itself for an end to quantitative easing by October, provided the economy continues to improve.

The existing policy, which has been articulated in previous Fed talks, is that with each FOMC meeting the Fed would scale back its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion. Under this policy, the Fed would be purchasing $5 billion in assets per month going into its December meeting, where it would then taper off those remaining purchases.

FOMC meeting

What the minutes from last month's meeting reveal is that in its upcoming October 2014 meeting, the Fed will change course and end the program with a final $15 billion reduction. The minutes show that the Fed would slash the program by $15 billion in October, instead of $10 billion, followed by another $5 billion reduction in December "in order to avoid having the small, remaining level of purchases receive undue focus among investors."

"If the economy progresses about as the Committee expects, warranting reductions in the pace of purchases at each upcoming meeting, this final reduction would occur following the October meeting," according to the minutes.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Leaves Future of Interest Rates Unclear

In March, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen spooked Wall Street when she said interest rate increases could foreseeably come six months after the end of the asset-purchasing program, effectively moving the goalposts on investors who expected rate hikes to occur later. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 100 points on the day.

#symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b { width: 253px; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11px; color: #333333; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .header { float: left; font-family: Georgia; font-size: 14px; color: #456626; line-height: 14px; padding-left: 14px; font-weight: bold; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .date { float: right; padding-right: 32px; font-weight: bold; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .chart { font-family: Georgia; font-size: 12px; color: #456626; width: 253px; height: 135px; line-height: 135px; text-align: center; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b ul { list-style: none; padding: 0; margin: 0; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b li { padding: 0; margin: 0; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b li:nth-child(odd) { background-color: #eeebe6; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .symbols-item .name { float: left; width: 100px; overflow: hidden; padding: 3px; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .symbols-item .price { float: left; width: 55px; overflow: hidden; padding: 3px; text-align: right; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .symbols-item .percent { float: left; width: 80px; overflow: hidden; padding: 3px; text-align: right; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .symbols-item.active { background-color: #456626; color: #ffffff; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .chart-container { width: 253px; height: 135px; padding: 0 0 5px 0; } #symbols-c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b .chart-container img { width: 253px; height: 135px; max-width: none; } .clear { clear: both; } Dow Jones Industrial Average N/A: DJIA Jul 11 11:46 AM loading chart... Price: 16,897.09 | Ch: -17.98 (-0.1%)

However, the recently released minutes don't put a timeline on when the Fed will raise the target Fed funds rate, which is near zero. Even if bond purchasing does end in October, FOMC members believed this would have "no substantive macroeconomic consequences and no consequences for the eventual decision about the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate."

Going into its December 2013 FOMC meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve was purchasing $85 billion worth of agency mortgage-backed securities and long-term treasuries a month to drive down interest rates and help jump-start a sluggish economy. This began in September 2012 and was known as QE3, as it was a third round of quantitative easing.

At that December meeting, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed would begin to scale back purchases by $10 billion, setting a rigid path for tapering that was scheduled to end after the December 2014 meeting.

The minutes also gave a picture as to how the Fed views the health of the economy, but Money Morning's Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said not to take the Fed data too seriously.

"The Fed has been wrong about every indicator it has ever looked at for the last 20 years," Fitz-Gerald said, "But especially its take on the economic health of the United States since the financial crisis started."

Now: We've examined these huge winners up close, and we love the profit potential they provide. We think you will, too...

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Netflix partner says Verizon slows traffic

netflix verizon speed Remember this from early June? Netflix and Verizon are still feuding over who's to blame for slow streaming speeds. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The battle over Netflix streaming speeds is still raging.

Level 3 (LVLT), a firm Netflix (NFLX, Tech30) and others pay to deliver traffic to Internet service providers, joined the fray Thursday, accusing Verizon of refusing to upgrade its infrastructure to boost lagging streaming speeds.

Netflix has been complaining for months that some big broadband companies are allowing streaming speeds to slow down in order to compel Netflix to pay them for a faster connection. Netflix reached paid connection deals earlier this year with Comcast (CMCSA) and Verizon (VZ, Tech30). But it said it did so "reluctantly," arguing that the Internet providers were abusing their market power to extract tolls.

The battle came to a head in early June when some Netflix subscribers on Verizon's network were seeing a message pop up on their screens about slow video speeds.

This was happening just before Netflix was set to debut season 2 of its widely popular and Emmy-nominated series "Orange is the New Black."

The broadband providers counter that Netflix is generating ever-increasing amounts of data consumption on their networks without helping to pay for the infrastructure upgrades necessary to deliver that content. They also argue that Netflix could route its traffic more efficiently to avoid congestion, but that it refuses to do so because it doesn't want to increase its costs.

In a blog post Thursday, Level 3 vice president Mark Taylor said the cost for Verizon of reducing the congestion at connection points "is absolutely trivial."

"Could it be that Verizon wants to extract a pound of flesh from its competitors, using the monopoly it has over the only conn! ection to its end-users?" Taylor wrote.

A Verizon spokesman said Friday that the company was planning a response to Level 3. Netflix said Level 3 "is highlighting the same purposeful congestion by internet service providers that we have been discussing for months."

Online video is the buzz of Sun Valley   Online video is the buzz of Sun Valley

The dispute has drawn the interest of the Federal Communications Commission, which said last month that it planned to gather information on the issue to determine "precisely what is happening" and "whether consumers are being harmed."

Figuring out those questions isn't easy because none of the companies involved are telling the full story, said Dan Rayburn, a streaming media expert with Frost & Sullivan.

"This whole back-and-forth is getting really tiresome because none of them are showing all the pieces of information -- they're just showing what's in their favor," Rayburn said. He called on the firms to be transparent about the expenses involved in the various business arrangements being debated.

Netflix and Verizon have been criticizing each other despite the fact that the two companies reached an agreement in April in which Netflix will pay to boost streaming speeds by connecting directly to Verizon's network. This connection apparently isn't yet being used for all the traffic Netflix sends to Verizon, however.

Other big tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30) and Apple (AAPL, Tech30) have similar agreements with Verizon.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Move Over Juan Valdez: Starbucks Opens in Colombia

COLOMBIA-COFFEE-DAY Guillermo Legaria, AFP/Getty ImagesAn employee of the Juan Valdez Origin boutique store in Bogata, Colombia, serves a cup of coffee during the National Coffee Day last month. BOGOTA, Colombia -- Make room Juan Valdez, it's time to meet the green-aproned barista. On Wednesday, Starbucks (SBUX) is making its much-anticipated debut in the country synonymous with coffee after years of roasting Colombia's Arabica beans for billions of java lovers the world over. The three-floor coffee house in Bogota is the first of 50 that the Seattle-based company plans to open here in the next five years. In a nod to the country's proud coffee-growing tradition, it's also the only one in the world to serve exclusively locally sourced coffee. But will Colombians answer Starbucks' siren call and ditch a popular local chain bearing the bushy-whiskered coffee farmer's name? Colombia's coffee federation, owner of the Juan Valdez chain, is outwardly welcoming the competition. The arrival of Starbucks it says will boost the market for gourmet java even if sales at its nearly 200 stores in Colombia take a hit over the short term "There's room in the market for us both," said Alejandra Londono, head of international sales for the Colombian chain. Juan Valdez's social mission promoting Colombian coffee and contributing to producers' welfare is likely to keep customers loyal, said Londono. Since its founding 11 years ago, the Colombian chain has funneled more than $20 million to a national fund that supports the country's 560,000 coffee-growing families, some of whom also own shares in the company. While Starbucks also has burnished its image for corporate responsibility, offering employees in the U.S. generous health care benefits and now online college courses, it's stayed clear of Colombia, Latin America's third largest economy, even as it has opened more than 700 stories in 12 other countries in the region. That may have been because it feared trampling on local sensibilities already hurt by the branding of coffee that leaves growers earning just a few pennies from every $4 venti latte sold. Indeed, a desire to overcome the commodities curse is what's been driving the federation's focus on adding value up the retail chain, a strategy reflected in more sophisticated local coffee-drinking culture. While known for exporting the world's finest beans, until recently Colombians' taste in coffee was quite provincial, relegated to a preference for heavily sweetened, warmed-over black coffee known as tinto, which is sold nearly everywhere. Across from where Starbucks is opening on a leafy park in north Bogota, office workers at a rival Juan Valdez seemed thrilled with the prospect of having a new option for their late-afternoon caffeine fix. Service at their local coffee house, they said, has been improving ever since Starbucks announced it was coming a year ago. "I like Juan Valdez but it doesn't mean I'll never go to Starbucks just because I want to support our own," said Marcela Gomez, an architect. "A little healthy competition is good."

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Yellen: Recovery Incomplete, Loose-Money Policy Justified

Susan Walsh/APFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economic recovery remains incomplete, with a still-ailing job market and stagnant wages justifying loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told a Senate committee Tuesday. In a strong defense of the central bank's current stance, Yellen said early signs of a pickup in inflation aren't enough for the Fed to accelerate its plans for raising interest rates, a move currently expected in the middle of next year. That could change, with interest rates rising sooner and faster, if data show labor markets improving more quickly than expected, she said. But as it stands, "although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete," Yellen said in semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, repeating her focus on lagging labor force participation and weak wage growth as key to any conclusions about the economy's health. "Too many Americans remain unemployed," Yellen said. U.S. stock markets dropped slightly after the release of Yellen's testimony and an accompanying monetary policy report, with shares of biotechnology and social media stocks being particularly hard hit after being singled out in the report for their "stretched" valuations. "These are the sub-industries that have caused a lot of longtime stock watchers to scratch their heads. These companies have relative few earnings, especially in the biotech area," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst with Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "I hope she [Yellen] is not surprised by what the market is doing. I'd say she'd like to deflate these bubbles with a little bit of stock talk." In general, however, the report said current asset and security prices remain in line with "historic norms." Fed Relatively Upbeat Yellen presented a broad overview of an economy still in transition from the 2007-2009 economic crisis. In the accompanying report, the Fed said its balance sheet would top out at $4.5 trillion when its bond-buying program ends in October, a sign of how much stimulus the central bank has had to unleash to support the economy. With another $2.6 trillion held in reserve by banks, the report said it "will not be feasible" for the Fed to rely on the traditional Fed Funds market to manage interest rates -- a judgment implicit in its recent work on new interest rate tools. Yellen said the economy continues to generate jobs and steady growth, but she added that Fed policymakers currently expect their preferred measure of inflation to stand at between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent for 2014, short of the central bank's 2 percent target. The housing market remains weak, Yellen said, and business investment less than hoped. Fed chiefs are mandated by law to report to Congress twice a year on monetary policy, and the hearing Tuesday was Yellen's second such appearance. Her first turned into a marathon grilling about her philosophy and views of the economy. The Fed faces a complex agenda as it weans the U.S. economy from the massive stimulus programs put in place to fight the financial crisis. Economic data has kept Fed policymakers relatively upbeat that the economy will make steady progress towards the central bank's goals. But there is also the potential for serious division. Some policymakers worry the Fed is falling behind the curve on rate hikes and that Yellen is taking too much of an impromptu approach to the interest rate decision. In her prepared testimony, she held firm to her view that low labor force participation and other labor market statistics are evidence of slack that needs to be absorbed by stronger job growth, not just a sign of unavoidable demographic change. For now, a more dovish approach holds sway at the central bank, with several officials saying they'd tolerate inflation higher than the 2 percent target for a period of time in order to ensure growth is on track, wages are rising, and as many workers as possible have been drawn back into jobs. Responding to questions from committee members, she said it would be a "mistake" for the Fed to adopt a strict rule for raising interest rates, something advocated by some lawmakers and Fed officials. -.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

VOXX International Corp (VOXX) Earnings Report: Can It Be Any Worst Than the Last One? HAR, SKUL & HEAR

The Q1 2015 earnings report for automotive, audio and consumer accessory distributor VOXX International Corp (NASDAQ: VOXX), a potential peer or performance benchmark of Harman International Industries Inc (NYSE: HAR), Skullcandy Inc (NASDAQ: SKUL) and Turtle Beach Corp (NASDAQ: HEAR), is due out after the market closes on Thursday. Aside from the VOXX International Corp earnings report, it should be said that Harman International Industries Inc reported Q3 2014 earnings on May 1st (they beat expectations and raised their forecast on strong European automotive demand) and will report Q4 2014 earnings on August 7th; Skullcandy Inc reported Q1 2014 earnings on May 1st and will report Q2 2014 near the end of this month; and Turtle Beach Corp reported Q1 2014 earnings on May 12th. However, VOXX International Corp's last earnings report was a train wreck that led to several analyst downgrades.

What Should You Watch Out for With the VOXX International Corp Earnings Report?

First, here is a quick recap of VOXX International Corp's recent earnings history from Yahoo! Finance:

Earnings HistoryMay 13Aug 13Nov 13Feb 14
EPS Est 0.04 0.09 0.50 0.24
EPS Actual 0.09 0.20 0.63 0.35
Difference 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.11
Surprise % 125.00% 122.20% 26.00% 45.80%

 

Back in mid-May, VOXX International Corp reported that net sales for the Fiscal 2014 year ended February 28, 2014 fell 3.1% to $809.7 million as automotive sales fell 1% to $412.5 million, premium audio sales fell 2.0% to $189.2 million and consumer accessories sales fell 8.2% to $206.3 million. Gross margin increased 10 basis points to 28.4% and a a net loss of $26.6 million (including impairment charges) or net income of $31.0 million excluding impairment charges verses net income of $22.5 million for the comparable period last year. An impairment charge of $32.2 million was recorded for goodwill on the most recent acquisitions of Hirschmann, Invision and Klipsch plus an impairment charge of $22.8 million was taken on indefinite lived trademarks of various brands and units plus an impairment charge of $2.6 million was recorded on the Technuity business which was restructured. The CEO commented:

"Through the first nine months of the year, we were tracking in line with our plan and had very strong load-in's for the holiday season.  While we lowered our top-line guidance based on softness in December, severe weather conditions throughout the country impacted the entire retail industry and had a big effect on our fourth quarter performance.  Retail was the primary reason for our miss and our story has not changed.  New products coming to market, our growing OEM platform, sales from new and exciting biometrics, imagery and action cameras, and our expanding retail distribution are the drivers for our optimism.  I believe we are well positioned to drive meaningful growth over the next few years and deliver long-term sustainable value for our shareholders."

And:

"We took steps in Fiscal '14 to protect margins in certain categories and believe we're well positioned to post modest growth in Fiscal '15, with upside should some of the bigger projects we're pursuing materialize and if the retail environment improves in the next holiday season.  We have accounted for softness in our guidance based on sell-through over the past few years and are managing our overhead accordingly.  We will continue to invest in new growth categories and pursue sponsorships and promotions we believe will increase brand awareness and drive sales.  We have also increased our engineering staff by approximately 10 percent to support new OEM and various programs that will be beginning towards the end of FY15 and run for several years.  We are investing not for the quarter or year, but for our long-term future."

Nevertheless, the above results led to several analyst downgrades which hit shares along with some lawsuits filed by so-called shareholder rights law firms.

This time around and according to the Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates page, the consensus expects revenue of $190.27 million and EPS of $0.06 - down from EPS of $0.11 expected sixty days.

On the news front and just after earnings, VOXX International Corp announced a $3 million strategic investment in EyeLock, a market leader in iris-based identity authentication solutions. VOXX International Corp already has a strategic partnership with EyeLock to distribute myris, its newest solution that's the world's first USB-enabled iris identity authenticator offering a convenient and secure way to authenticate an individual's identity.

What do the VOXX International Corp Charts Say?

The latest technical chart for VOXX International Corp shows shares have been heading downward since the beginning of December:

A performance chart shows that VOXX International Corp has exactly been giving investors amplified returns like Harman International Industries Inc and Turtle Beach Corp while Skullcandy Inc has investors singing the blues:

A technical chart for Harman International Industries Inc shows a flat performance since March while Skullcandy Inc has been trending downward since then and Turtle Beach Corp has been bouncing further downward since late last year:

What Should Be Your Next Move?

Given the last earnings report, VOXX International Corp needs to do something to show that things are turning around as blaming the weather will probably not work a second time around. Otherwise, its hard to get excited about the stock unless you buy into the CEO's long term view.  

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Are Acuity Brands and Cree the Best LED Lighting Plays?

Shareholders in lighting company Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI  ) were given a rude reminder of the risk of holding a highly rated stock recently. The company's third quarter results missed estimates and the stock plunged more than 15%. But it might not all be so bad. Acuity's management doesn't give earnings guidance, so Fools should expect some volatility around the results. In addition, the company is attractive for a host of reasons, many of which also apply to Cree (NASDAQ: CREE  ) and Hubbell  (NYSE: HUB-B  ) . Is this a good buying opportunity in Acuity Brands?

Acuity Brands, Cree, and Hubbell: cyclical and secular growth prospects
Acuity Brands is attractive because it has cyclical growth prospects via an upturn in spending in the commercial and industrial construction sector. In addition, it also has a secular growth story from the growth in utilization of LED lighting. Given the company's P/E ratio of 33 times current earnings, it's reasonable to conclude that Acuity needs both these growth drivers to perform in order to take the stock higher.

The good news is that the indications from Cree's LED lighting results is that the secular story is very much intact. Cree manufactures LED products, lighting (LED based), and power and radio frequency products. In its latest set of results, LED products (which service a range of industries) only grew 3%, but Cree's LED lighting solutions grew 35% and now make up 44% of its total sales from just 37% last year. Moreover, Cree's management expects "double digit growth in lighting in both LED fixtures and LED bulb" -- good news for Acuity because LED lighting sales now make up a third of its overall sales.

As for the expectation of a cyclical pickup in lighting demand, investors need to appreciate that construction activity was held back in the winter due to severe weather. But Fools already know that anecdotal and industry data is pointing to a stronger second half for commercial construction. Hubbell, a rival company to Acuity, manufactures electrical systems, power systems, and lighting products for the residential and nonresidential markets. In line with the industry, its first quarter performance was hampered by the severe weather, but in a Q1 2014 earnings call Hubbell's management added, albeit tentatively, to the chorus of companies suggesting an uptick in construction activity: "[B]ut certainly we see some dynamics within the markets that may end up resulting in some upside going forward on the nonresidential construction." 

Moreover, Hubbell is interesting because its management commented that residential lighting was the strong area in the quarter, rather than weather-affected commercial and industrial lighting. In other words, commercial and industrial lighting was held back by the weather. Given that Acuity's core strength is in nonresidential lighting, it's reasonable to expect that Acuity's lighting results will improve with better weather in 2014.

Acuity and Cree display uneven growth
While the outlook for LED lighting looks assured, it's also likely to follow a variable growth pattern. There are a few special factors that Fools need to consider about the market.

One of the biggest deciding factors in making the switch from conventional to LED lighting is the cost efficiency of using a LED light. Simply put, there is pressure on LED manufacturers and lighting companies to spur adoption by lowering prices or investing in increasing LED efficacy. For example, in Cree latest quarter its management disclosed that its lighting margins were below expectations (lighting gross margins fell 320 basis points to 27.4% in the quarter to April) due to LED bulb price reductions.

Moreover, the mix of lighting products sold in the quarter will also affect margins for Cree and Acuity. On an adjusted basis, Acuity's gross margins fell by 70 basis points to 40.3% even while net sales increased by 11.5%. The reasons behind the fall were due to negative foreign exchange effects, a warranty issue due to a design defect in an older product, and a negative product mix shift. Acuity's management described the latter as a "temporary activity" that is "impossible to predict". Therefore, Fools shouldn't get too wrapped up in any one quarter's results, especially coming from a company that doesn't give earnings guidance.

Moreover, growth industries require growth products, and Acuity's investment in ramping up its electronic component capabilities reduced gross margins by 20 basis points in the quarter. Furthermore, management expects further investment to constrain gross margins "over the next few quarters." Acuity needs to make these investments because selling lighting controls (alongside LED lighting) is a key component of its growth plan.

Clearly, LED lighting is a growth industry, but it won't come without some bumps along the way.

The bottom line
The long-term outlook for Acuity is good. Cree is generating strong growth with LED lighting, and Hubbell is also seeing relative strength with its lighting solutions. Indeed, analysts have Acuity's EPS rising by 19% and 25% in the next two years. Good growth looks assured, but for the reasons discussed above, Fools can expect some volatility along the way. On a forward P/E of more than 23 times earnings to August 2015, the stock doesn't look great value right now, but it's well worth following for a future entry point.

Leaked: Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you)
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

Friday, July 11, 2014

Fastenal Company Posts Higher Q2 Results; Matches EPS Estimates (FAST)

Before the opening bell on Friday morning, Fastenal (FAST) reported its second quarter results, posting gains in sales and earnings compared to last year’s Q2.

FAST’s Earnings in Brief

Fastenal reported second quarter net sales of $949.94 million, which are up 10.4% from last year’s Q2 sales of $847.6 million. Net earnings for the quarter came in at $130.5 million, or 44 cents per share, up  from last year’s Q2 earnings of $121 million, or 41 cents per share. The company's EPS matched analysts’ estimates of 44 cents, but revenue came in slightly below expectations of $952.95.

FAST’s Dividend

Fastenal declared its third quarter dividend of 25 cents on July 10. The dividend is payable on August 22 to all shareholders on record as of July 25.

Stock Performance

FAST stock was inactive in pre-market trading. YTD, the company’s stock is up 3.13%.

FAST Dividend Snapshot

As of Market Close on July 10, 2014

WMT dividend yield annual payout payout ratio dividend growth

Click here to see the complete history of FAST dividends.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

3 Road and Rail Stocks to Sell Now

RSS Logo Portfolio Grader Popular Posts: Hottest Technology Stocks Now – IGTE GTAT PRLB BBRY8 Biotechnology Stocks to Buy NowHottest Healthcare Stocks Now – MNKD INO ACAD INCY Recent Posts: Hottest Technology Stocks Now – INVN SMI SPIL BBRY Biggest Movers in Services Stocks Now – TLK EJ RAD XRS Biggest Movers in Basic Materials Stocks Now – SCCO SID CENX GGB View All Posts 3 Road and Rail Stocks to Sell Now

This week, the ratings of three road and rail stocks on Portfolio Grader are down. Each of these rates a “D” (“sell”) or “F” overall (“strong sell”).

Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. () earns an F (“strong sell”) this week, moving down from last week’s grade of D (“sell”). Roadrunner Transportation Systems offers truck freight transportation services. In Portfolio Grader’s specific subcategories of Earnings Revisions and Earnings Surprise, RRTS also gets F’s. .

Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class H’s () rating falls to a D (“sell”) this week, down from C (“hold”) the week prior. Guangshen Railway is a provider of railroad passenger and freight transportation, as well as railway network usage and services. .

The rating of Kansas City Southern () declines this week from a D to an F. Kansas City Southern operates a railroad system that provides shippers with rail freight services in commercial and industrial markets of the United States and Mexico. The stock has a trailing PE Ratio of 35.40. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Why the Dow Almost Broke 17,000 Today

Boosted by strong economic data, stocks kicked off the second half the year by surging to record highs as the Dow Jones Industrial Average  (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) nearly eclipsed the 17,000 milestone, reaching 16,998 at one point during the session. On the day, the blue chips moved up 129 points or 0.8%, and the S&P 500 also touched a new record, gaining 0.7%. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, jumped 1.1%. 

Economic reports out of both the U.S. and China had investors in a buying mood as Markit's Purchasing Managers Index for June reached 57.3, its highest level since May 2010. The monthly manufacturing report from the Institute of Supply Management was not as strong, as the index edged down slightly from 55.4 to 55.3 in June, below estimates at 55.8. Nonetheless, the index showed the 13th straight month of expansion and new orders and production were particularly high, a leading indicator for future activity. In China, meanwhile, another purchasing managers index showed activity flipping from contraction in May to expansion in June, increasing from 49.4 to 50.7, assuaging concerns about diminishing growth in China. 

Auto sales continued at a strong pace last month as sales industrywide rose 1.2% to 1.4 million in June or an annualized selling rate of 16.98 million. General Motors  (NYSE: GM  ) shares jumped 3.6% on the news as sales ticked up 1%. The carmaker has been struggling recently with a seemingly endless stream of recalls, which caused sales of a number of affected models, including the Chevy Cruze, Malibu, and Impala to fall significantly last month. Still, overall the automaker didn't seem to be greatly affected by the negative publicity surrounding the recalls. Separately today, a chemical explosion at a GM metal-stamping plant in Indiana killed one worker and injured five. The incident didn't seem to affect the company's stock, but for a manufacturer already struggling with its safety record, news of the explosion will do it no favors.

After hours, Google  (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) was shaking up the online music industry with its purchase of Songza, an Internet radio service similar to Pandora  (NYSE: P  ) . Shares of Pandora edged down 0.3% after hours on the news. The move gives Google, which did not disclose terms of the deal but was believed to spend just about $15 million, a stake in the burgeoning online radion industry, and follows Apple's $3 billion purchase of Beats Electronics just weeks ago. Songza recommends new songs to listeners, much in the way Pandora, and seems to fit with Google's knowledge-seeking business model. Amazon.com also recently entered the space with its Prime Music service, but Pandora has survived similar threats before, most notably from Apple's iTunes Radio. Despite the activity in the online radio space, the industry may approaching maturity with Pandora and Spotify the leading providers in the U.S. As the tech behemoths hunger for a foothold in the space, Pandora or Spotify could become a juicy acquisition for the big players like Apple, Google, and Amazon. 

Warren Buffett's worst auto-nightmare (Hint: It's not Tesla)
A major technological shift is happening in the automotive industry. Most people are skeptical about its impact. Warren Buffett isn't one of them. He recently called it a "real threat" to one of his favorite businesses. An executive at Ford called the technology "fantastic." The beauty for investors is that there is an easy way to invest in this megatrend. Click here to access our exclusive report on this stock.

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Why Altera Is the Best Pick in the Semiconductor Industry

Altera (ALTR) has achieved it again. The programmable logic devices maker came out with strong results for the first quarter, beating Street estimates by a big margin. Altera has been a consistent performer over the past few quarters because of its innovative product portfolio.

Driven by a foundry agreement with Intel (INTC), Altera is gaining share in the field programmable gate array, or FPGA, market. As such, it should continue outperforming the likes of Xilinx (XLNX) going forward and maintain its streak of impressive performances.

Beating competition

Altera's performance in the recently reported first quarter was much better than Xilinx. Its revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $461 million, comprehensively ahead of the $438 million consensus target. Earnings, meanwhile, came in at $0.37 per share, while analysts were looking for $0.32.

Altera's outlook was also strong. The company expects revenue in the range of $470 million-$488 million in the ongoing quarter, blowing past the $461 million estimate. In comparison, rival Xilinx's performance left a lot to be desired. The company's earnings missed estimates, and its revenue outlook for the current quarter also lagged expectations, as it saw a drop in orders from a couple of large communication customers.

Hence, Altera seems to be executing better than Xilinx. Going forward, considering Altera's product development efforts, there's a strong chance that it will be able to overtake Xilinx in the programmable logic devices market.

Fresh products

Altera's new products now account for almost half of its total revenue. The 28-nanometer process has been the primary driver for Altera so far, and the company seems to have successfully taken away some market share from Xilinx in this area. While Xilinx cited delays in LTE deployment as the reason behind its sluggish performance in the previous quarter, Altera was singing a different tune.

In fact, the roll out of LTE by China Mobile (CHL) resulted in 20% sequential growth in Altera's wireless business. In addition, Altera is also counting on the growing adoption of 3G in India and other developing countries to propel its business higher.

The company's focus on making its production processes more efficient has helped it land some solid design wins. Altera has already started sampling its 20-nanometer process with customers, extending its chip portfolio further. However, it is the 14-nanometer FinFET process technology that's expected to become a major growth driver for Altera going forward.

Altera is developing chips based on the 14-nanometer platform, using Intel's foundry. This month, Altera showcased its FPGA technology, based on Intel's 14 nm Tri-Gate process. The company has seen some positive cues early on in the design process, which should accelerate the time to market for 14-nm chips.

Intel has played a key role in the development of this platform, offering its true die shrink based on the second-generation 14-nm Tri-Gate process. According to Transparency Market Research, the FPGA market is a huge opportunity since it is expected to grow to almost $9 billion over the next five years. Now, through this technology, Altera is planning to capture half of the FPGA market by 2019.

Takeaway

In conclusion, Altera's strong fundamentals, and the fact that it returns a good amount of cash to investors, makes the stock highly attractive. The company's debt of $1.49 billion is easily covered by its cash position of $3 billion, while a dividend yield of 1.70% isn't bad either. Since Altera has a payout ratio of just 37%, there's a good chance that it might increase its dividend in the future. The company plans on returning 60%-80% of its cash flow from operations to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases.

Altera has been consistently good, and its product development could lead to further improvements. The company has an ambitious plan of becoming the leader in the FPGA market, and it is working aggressively toward it. Moreover, Altera's shareholder-friendly moves make the stock even more attractive, and it could turn out to be a solid long-term investment.

About the author:Riddhi KharkiaA practicing Chartered Accountant based out of India. I have keen interest in analyzing tech stocks that are driven by value.
Currently 0.00/512345

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment:
More GuruFocus Links
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
iPhone App MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
ALTR STOCK PRICE CHART 35.66 (1y: +8%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='ALTR',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1373259600000,33.03],[1373346000000,33.58],[1373432400000,33.84],[1373518800000,34.5],[1373605200000,35.05],[1373864400000,34.81],[1373950800000,34.9],[1374037200000,35.08],[1374123600000,35.66],[1374210000000,35.51],[1374469200000,35.56],[1374555600000,35.47],[1374642000000,35.11],[1374728400000,35.2],[1374814800000,34.99],[1375074000000,34.9],[1375160400000,35.19],[1375246800000,35.56],[1375333200000,36.47],[1375419600000,36.41],[1375678800000,36.18],[1375765200000,36.22],[1375851600000,36.15],[1375938000000,36.26],[1376024400000,36.01],[1376283600000,36.12],[1376370000000,36.3],[1376456400000,35.56],[1376542800000,34.69],[1376629200000,35],[1376888400000,34.78],[1376974800000,34.71],[1377061200000,34.67],[1377147600000,34.58],[1377234000000,34.66],[1377493200000,35.15],[1377579600000,34.53],[1377666000000,34.79],[1377752400000,35.69],[1377838800000,35.17],[1378184400000,35.88],[1378270800000,37.225],[1378357200000,37.46],[1378443600000,37.57],[1378702800000,37.98],[1378789200000,38.645],[1378875600000,38.7],[1378962000000,38.8],[1379048400000,38.67],[1379307600000,37.85],[1379394000000,38.18],[1379480400000,38.14],[1379566800000,37.981],[1379653200000,37.6],[1379912400000,37.305],[1379998800000,37.36],[1380085200000,37.37],[1380171600000,37.3],[1380258000000,36.96],[1380517200000,37.16],[1380603600000,37],[1380690000000,36.84],[1380776400000,36.66],[1380862800000,36.87],[1381122000000,36.52],[1381208400000,36.09],[1381294800000,35.79],[1381381200000,36.725],[1381467600000,37.19],[1381726800000,37.31],[1381813200000,36.7],[1381899600000,37.03],[1381986000000,37.825],[1382072400000,37.48],[1382331600000,37.46],[1382418000000,37.32],[1382504400000,32.3],[1382590800000,33.175],[1382677200000,33.13],[1382936400000,33.45],[1383022800000,33.86],[1383109200000,33.475],[1383195600000,33.605],[1383282000000,33.17],[1383544800000,33.3],[1383631200000,32.97],[1383717600000,33.11],[138! 3804000000,33.13],[1383890400000,33.39],[1384149600000,32.929],[1384236000000,33.16],[1384322400000,33.18],[1384408800000,32.48],[1384495200000,32.72],[1384754400000,32.47],[1384840800000,31.06],[1384927200000,31.35],[1385013600000,32.01],[1385100000000,32.34],[1385359200000,32.24],[1385445600000,32.09],[1385532000000,32.52],[1385704800000,32.25],[1385964000000,32.05],[1386050400000,31.88],[1386136800000,31.97],[1386223200000,31.86],[1386309600000,32.12],[1386568800000,31.85],[1386655200000,31.41],[1386741600000,31.1],[1386828000000,31.09],[1386914400000,30.83],[1387173600000,31.11],[1387260000000,31.58],[1387346400000,31.84],[1387432800000,31.26],[1387519200000,31.5],[1387778400000,31.98],[1387864800000,32.099],[1388037600000,32.18],[1388124000000,32.39],[1388383200000,32.44],[1388469600000,32.511],[1388642400000,32.02],[1388728800000,32.17],[1388988000000,31.98],[1389074400000,32.14],[1389160800000,31.78],[1389247200000,31.46],[1389333600000,31.47],[1389592800000,31.38],[1389679200000,31.81],[1389765600000,32.25],[1389852000000,32],[1389938400000,32.4],[1390284000000,33.06],[1390370400000,33.32],[1390456800000,32.93],[1390543200000,32.12],[1390802400000,31.88],[1390888800000,32.35],[1390975200000,32.97],[1391061600000,33.54],[1391148000000,33.43],[1391407200000,32.53],[1391493600000,32.51],[1391580000000,32.34],[1391666400000,33.08],[1391752800000,33.69],[1392012000000,33.91],[1392098400000,34.39],[1392184800000,34.72],[1392271200000,34.73],[1392357600000,34.76],[1392703200000,34.89],[1392789600000,35.75],[1392876000000,35.65],[1392962400000,35.7],[1393221600000,35.91],[1393308000000,35.9],[1393394400000,36.14],[1393480800000,36.25],[1393567200000,36.31],[1393826400000,35.82],[1393912800000,36.6],[1393999200000,36.41],[1394085600000,36.29],[1394172000000,36.53],[1394427600000,36.44],[1394514000000,35.97],[1394600400000,36],[1394686800000,35.51],[1394773200000,35.29],[1395032400000,35.51],[1395118800000,35.96],[1395205200000,35.99],[1395291600000,37.04],[1395378000000,36.35],[1395637200000,35.76],[1395! 723600000! ,36.43],[1395810000000,35.91],[1395896400000,35.63],[1395982800000,35.45],[1396242000000,36.235],[1396328400000,36.43],[1396414800000,36.1],[1396501200000,36.4],[1396587600000,34.905],[1396846800000,34.51],[1396933200000,35.07],[1397019600000,35.37],[1397106000000,34.45],[1397192400000,33.81],[1397451600000,33.96],[1397538000000,34.11],[1397624400000,33.98],[1397710800000,34.46],[1398056400000,34.62],[1398142800000,34.74],[1398229200000,34.36],[1398315600000,34.1

Friday, July 4, 2014

The Latest From Bill Gross - One Big Idea?

Investing and business success can often depend on one BIG idea and its timing. The peaking of short-term interest rates at 20% in the early 1980s and the bursting of the DotCom and NASDAQ bubble 20 years later were excellent examples of big ideas that made or broke investment portfolios. A similar tale was told by the late Peter Bernstein as he recalled his early career in the 1950s when investing for income was rapidly becoming old hat, appropriate perhaps for widows and orphans, but not for red-blooded business executives focusing on a new era of growth. He writes that one client told him, "Please remember, I just can't stand more income." Back then, Bernstein suggests, income was for "sissies."

In 2014, the tide may be turning again as demographics, fear of another Lehman, or just income-starved insurance companies and similarly structured liability-influenced institutions, reach for anything they can get. The era of income may be, at the margin, replacing the era of capital gains, despite artificially low current yields.

If so, the proper analysis of where to find high, yet relatively safe, income should be one of the top priorities of any investment management company. In addition to bottom-up credit analysis, the timing and ultimate destination of PIMCO's New Neutral short-term interest rate thesis will be critical.

For example, if The New Neutral real FF (federal funds) rate is 0% instead of the Fed's currently presumed 1¾%, then not only bonds but all financial assets might logically be repriced relative to historical experience. Even after accepting the historical validity and predictive capability of Robert Shiller's CAPE (10-year cyclically adjusted P/E ratio), it may be necessary to make adjustments to it, if in fact real policy interest rates over the long term have settled into a lower New Neutral. At PIMCO, we are amazed that little outside analysis has been applied to this concept that to us affects the array of financial assets available to investors. One has only to apply Gordon's dividend discount model to measure the potential effect that a 0% real policy rate would have on stock prices versus the presumed 1¾ - 2% of an "old normal." P = D/R-G, states the Gordon model, with R in this case being the real rate of interest that may be substantially lower than prior levels. Ex-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has argued in private conversations that R is lower because G (growth) will be equally lower in future years. We agree, but would add that in a highly levered world, R has been and must remain reduced more than G in order to keep our financed-based economy functioning. If we are correct, Shiller's CAPE may have to be adjusted from an historical median 17x P/E to something resembling 20-22x. That would not mean that today's 16-multiple P/E market should be elevated to an immediate 20x, but that the current CAPE of 25x, as shown in Chart 1, is less bubbly than presumed. Fed officials who cite bubbly aspects of "financial conditions" should therefore be less alarmed. If the real New Neutral is significantly lower than 10 or 20 years ago, P/E ratios should be higher, credit spreads should be tighter, and home prices less bubbly than presumed if, in fact, The New Neutral is "neutral" and can lead to historical levels of asset volatility. The New Neutral is critical to future investment ! success. This currently is PIMCO's "one big idea."

The following is an excerpt from a recent speech given at the Morningstar Investor Conference in Chicago that more fully explains our logic concerning this New Neutral concept:

The New Neutral is simply the 'biggest, most critical, most significant, most important' element in asset pricing today. The policy rate, along with forward expectations, as well as volatility, corporate and equity risk premiums, has always provided the fundamental foundation for asset prices, aside (that is) from the inevitable bouts of exuberance and fear. But the neutral policy rate – in real and certainly nominal terms, changes over time. Irving Fisher back in the 1930s came up with the concept of a neutral policy rate, but he surmised it would change only with inflation. In other words, the real rate would be constant. History has proved otherwise. In the nearly 80 years since his theory was introduced, real policy rates have fluctuated from 0% to 8% during periods of positive inflation, and importantly, asset prices – bonds and stocks – have been significantly influenced by them. Do you wonder why stocks sold at P/Es of 6-7 times in 1981? Wonder no longer. It's because nominal FF traded at 20%, and real FF at 7% or 8%. Equity risk premiums had to go up because real FF went up, which sent P/Es to what were rock bottom prices. Same thing with long Treasuries at 15%. It's not that the market expected real funds to trade at 7-8% forever. But the forward path was exceedingly high, higher than Fisher could ever have imagined. For the next 30 years it came down, down, down and finally over the past few years real FF have been negative. 25 basis points nominal with 1.5% inflation has equaled a minus (1.25%) average real FF rate for much of the period.

So the real policy rate changes, and as Janet Yellen has recently agreed, there is an evolving neutral policy rate – a Goldilocks rate, which is "not too hot or not too cold, but just right" to promote Fed targets of 2% inflation and 3% real growth, which is nominal GDP of 5%. I might add, this neutral policy rate will now be expected to maintain moderate financial conditions and keep exuberance contained, an evolving third leg to Federal Reserve policy.

What is this real policy rate and is it really different than what we've seen for the past 25 years? Well, it's likely not the current negative (1.25%), although that rate plus 1 trillion dollars of QE per year has been insufficient to generate 5% nominal GDP. What it has generated are what appear to some observers to be bubbly asset markets, and so perhaps they presume it must be raised to prevent popping. It will be, but by how much is the question. Nor, however, is the real rate likely to be 2% positive as markets experienced pre-Lehman. That was the rate embedded in the Taylor rule, formulated in the early '90s which worked quite well, until it didn't, namely 2006–2007 when we had a real rate too high for a levered economy that it became the precursor to the Great Recession. The 2% Taylor real rate was a rate consistent with a significantly less levered financial economy than we have today. To return to a 2% real policy rate today would be to dice with another Lehman-like disaster. The real rate was only 1% at its peak before the financial system came tumbling down. It is almost comical to believe we can return to that point with our economy now levered 350% to GDP, much like it was five years ago. Although there is limited research beyond the Taylor Rule in this area, a 2001 San Francisco Fed Study by Laubach and Williams, which has been updated quarterly since, comes closest to the mark in my opinion. It suggests that The New Neutral should currently be a minus (25) basis points real, which would cap nominal FF at 1¾% if the Fed's target of 2% inflation were to be reached. Other historical research by Rogoff & Reinhart covering the aftermath of the Great Depression and the 35 years-plus recovery into the 1970s, suggests real policy rates averaged a minus (25) to minus (100) basis points in the U.S. and the U.K. during this period. Deleveraging takes time and it takes very low real yields as well, it seems, to return an economy to Old Normal. It will likely take at least 5-10 mor! e years before we approach the old Taylor model of 2% real, if then.

O.K., hopefully I haven't put you to sleep. My point is that if The New Neutral is closer to 0% real than the Taylor 2% which many expect, then all asset markets, which are priced off of it, are less bubbly than they appear at the moment. P/Es of 16-17x seem reasonable with a 0% real policy rate. 10-year Treasuries at 2.60% do as well once a term premium is added to 2% inflation. Credit spreads themselves, while almost historically narrow, may be using the wrong history book IF Taylor is their guide. At 0% real, high yield spreads of 350-400 basis points make more sense as do other alternative asset yields. Collectively of course, all of these asset prices depend on Janet Yellen's "not too hot, not too cold" assumption that produces at least 4% nominal GDP growth, but that of course is what Neutral means. Minsky and future Minsky moments have not been outlawed. It's just that PIMCO believes the New rate is closer to 0% than 2%. If it's closer to 2%, then bear markets in all asset classes await. We think not.

To PIMCO, this means that asset returns will be low, but less volatile than in prior periods. Perhaps that is why the VIX and Treasury volatility are so low currently. The market may be buying into PIMCO's view of a slow crawl to a New Neutral. Admittedly, on the other side of the argument, I haven't even discussed the levered global economy, China, Euroland, or other potential hot spots that might spark another flash crash and mass exodus. There is tail risk in a levered global economy both on the inflationary and the deflationary sides. We have been living with that risk for 5 years now and it will continue around the world, most visibly perhaps in Japan where deflation and inflation have suddenly come together like two giant galaxies that could produce a supernova inflationary explosion, or a deflationary black hole. We shall see – Japan perhaps will give us a glimpse into the global economy's future, as to whether you can solve a debt crisis with more debt, or at least negative real interest rate debt.

And, as we learned last week, as if we didn't know it before, each country has its own New Neutral policy rate that is not too hot / not too cold, but just right – and in our opinion lower than historic Neutrals because the world is now more highly levered. Mark Carney of the Bank of England will likely head the first of the G-7 countries to raise rates and explore where to stop at hopefully just the right spot. He will likely be the Christopher Columbus of G-7 central bankers, sailing upwards to find the East, and the wonderful spices of the U.K.'s New Neutral.

For now, however…investors must make choices, and simultaneously with this journey to The New Neutral, investors must be aware that QE, in the U.S. at least, will disappear as a policy choice in early November, and risk markets, including long-term Treasury bonds have feasted on that policy for 5 years now. What will happen when the Fed stops buying nearly 100% of all 30 year Treasuries being issued by their puppet counterparts – the U.S. Treasury? Talk about the left hand and the right hand – these days the Fed and the Treasury are nearly one and the same – one giant marionette. And that marionette, according to some (which includes PIMCO), has significantly fertilized risk assets including stocks. Is it a coincidence that stocks have doubled during the period of Quantitative Easing, while the Fed has injected 3.5 trillion dollars of checks into the credit markets? What will happen when the checks stop? We think, at the margin at least, that stock market appreciation will slow significantly and that credit spreads will stop tightening. And we assume that is what the Fed is hoping for too. But no bear markets if The New Neutral is closer to 0% than 2%.

But to the point – if The New Neutral is closer to 0% than 2% – if Taylor is replaced by PIMCO's New Neutral – then risk assets, even without QE checks, can stand on their own two legs. They won't be stilts, more like peg-legs in a historical context, but stable nonetheless. We expect bonds to return 3-4% over the next 5 years and stocks perhaps 4-5%. If central banks proceed cautiously, there's no need for another Lehman Brothers, but as well, there will be no interest rate propellant for double-digit asset returns. Those days are gone. The journey to 0% nominal Fed Funds and a negative 1½% real rate is over. A 0% real Fed Funds New Neutral lies ahead, a tightening of credit yes, but a mild one to be sure.

And specifically what would PIMCO favor or recommend? Well, of the carry alternatives available to all investors we would favor credit and equity risk premiums (stocks) as well as volatility sales and the middle of the curve, as opposed to outright duration, although we would acknowledge, as I have, that the alpha heyday of all risk premiums is over. They are too tight to produce substantial capital gains, and their "carry" even when mildly levered lies in the 3-5% annual return range.

Big Idea Speed Read

1. The New Neutral is PIMCO's one big idea currently.

2. If it is lower than the historical 2% real, and if it facilitates normal asset volatility, then stocks, bonds, and risk assets in general should appear less bubbly than some presume.

William H. Gross Managing Director

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/default.aspx

About the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/
Currently 0.00/51

Thursday, July 3, 2014

EDAP TMS S.A. May Have Just Run Out of Gas (EDAP)

This isn't going to be a well-received idea, given how bullish the stock appears to be at this time, but EDAP TMS S.A. (NASDAQ:EDAP) is a sell. Up 82% since the end of May, EDAP is ripe for a pullback, and may have reached the bearish pivot point as of today.

If you're reading this, then you're likely already familiar with the company. If it's a new name to you, however, the story is simple. EDAP TMS S.A. is the designer and manufacturer of minimally invasive surgical devices. Its claim to fame is the Ablatherm(R), for high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment of localized prostate cancer. The device is already sold in Europe, and is approaching a decision date with the FDA, which will make a key choice for the HIFU device on July 30th. As is so often the case, however, EDAP rallied sharply in front of the impending news, as nobody wants to miss out on any potential decision-driven jump.

That psychological jockeying, however, can wreak havoc with the normal interpretation of a chart, and forces current and would-be traders to not focus on the value of a positive decision from the FDA, and instead forces onlookers to decide when the rally is going run out of gas...and to do that, traders have to get a very good grip on the clues the chart's giving. Well, EDAP TMS S.A. has dropped a major hint today, and in the shadow of the huge rally that's unfurled since early June, we may well be at the turning point, for the worst.

The red flag here is the shape of today's bar. It's considered a doji, where the open and the close (so far) are very near one another. It's a sign that the equilibrium between the buyers and the sellers has been met en route from a net-buying environment to a net-selling environment. If today is the equilibrium day for EDAP, then from this point forward is the net-selling environment. Given how overbought the stock is, there's certainly no denying there's a lot of pent-up profit-taking potential.

Just for the record, this isn't a long-term judgment call on EDAP TMS S.A. or on Ablatherm. It's a short-term coal based on one of the occasionally-quirky realities of trading. When it comes to biotech, stocks tend to rise and fall well in advance of news and events, and a proactive, predictive approach tends to work best.

For more trading ideas and insights like these, be sure to sign up for the free SmallCap Network newsletter. You'll get stock picks, market calls, and more, every day. Here's what you've missed recently.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Why Facebook Wanted a Video Advertising Intermediary

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Fresh off of playing mad scientist with your emotions, Facebook  (FB) is delving deeper into the online advertising racket in its purchase of LiveRail, a company specializing in video advertising. It's little wonder Facebook wanted LiveRail as the company boasts an impressive client list the likes of ABC Family, Gannett, Dailymotion and Major League Baseball.

The startup acts as something of a middleman, its video supply-side platform (SSP) helping to connect video publishers with suitable and relevant advertising material. The company currently facilitates seven billion video advertisements to online audiences each month.

Facebook could not be reached for comment for this story.

The crown jewel of a LiveRail acquisition is its bidding network, a real-time solution for marketers to seek relevant open spots for their content on sites at the lowest price-point. It achieves this through programmatic means (read: low overheads), similar to how Facebook already uses algorithms to determine what advertising content is relevant to its users. "Our platform sits at the heart of the video advertising ecosystem," said LiveRail cofounder Mark Trefgarne in a statement. "We believe that LiveRail, Facebook and the premium publishers it serves have an opportunity to make video ads better and more relevant for the hundreds of millions of people who watch digital video every month," Facebook VP of ads product marketing Brian Boland added in a blog post. It's those hundreds of millions of people Facebook is eager to connect with. Video advertising is one of the fastest-growing and lucrative market on the web; it's expected to increase 41.9% in the U.S. this year, amounting to a $5.96 billion industry, according to estimates from research firm eMarketer. Facebook already holds a massive chunk of total ad revenue but as online video becomes increasingly prevalent, the social network needs to protect its claim. Throughout 2013, Facebook accounted for 5.8% of total global digital ad revenues, up from 4.1% the year earlier. EMarketer projects the company to continue to expand that stake with an estimated 7.8% share by end-2014 of an approximate $137.53 billion industry. With 802 million daily active users (context: a userbase more than double the U.S. population), Facebook has been facing a quandary of how to monetize its most important commodity: your data. Last year, the social network launched auto-play video advertising in News Feeds, focusing on matching relevant sponsored content with the information it had already mined from user's interactions with Facebook. This, then, is a different route to greater revenue. Buying the technology solution that connects marketers with online real estate, though, means Facebook can move beyond simply hosting advertising and instead move towards controlling the very online advertising space itself. Details of the proposed acquisition have not been disclosed and the deal has yet to receive regulatory approval. --Written by Keris Alison Lahiff in New York. Microsoft Is Losing Market Share It Can't Afford to Lose 10 Cars That Retain Resale Value After 5 Years

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Who will be affected by Hobby Lobby ruling?

protesters supreme court The Supreme Court decision on whether employers must provide contraceptive coverage could affect more than just Hobby Lobby. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The Supreme Court's decision on contraceptives and employer health plans could affect companies and workers far beyond Hobby Lobby and the other plaintiffs.

But nobody seems to know how far.

The ruling applies to "closely held for-profit corporations," a small subset of employers, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. wrote for the majority. But in a dissenting opinion, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg suggests the impact will be far broader.

"Although the court attempts to cabin its language to closely held corporations, its logic extends to corporations of any size, public or private," she said.

"Closely held" commonly refers to a company owned by a few insider shareholders, rather than publicly traded giants such as IBM or Bank of America.

But government statisticians don't keep track of companies that way.

"I've never seen data on how many closely held businesses there are out there," says Paul Fronstin, a senior researcher with the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Nor is it clear that the court's idea of closely held is the same as other definitions. For tax purposes, the IRS says a company is closely held when five or fewer shareholders control at least half the stock — as long as it's not a law firm, architectural shop or other professional practice.

But the court, which makes no reference to the IRS regulation, seems to understand closely held another way.

The decision applies to "corporations like Conestoga, Hobby Lobby and Mardel," the companies involved in the case, Alito wrote.

What do those companies have in common? They are "closely held corporations, each owned and controlled by members of a single family," he said.

The case hinged on whether regulation of corporations can impinge on the religious convictions of their owners. For retailer Hobby Lobby and the other plaintiffs, Alito argued, the company and the owners are virtually the same.

At Conestoga, a maker of cabinet components, the Hahn family exercises "sole ownership of the closely held business; they control its board of directors and hold all of its voting shares," he wrote. "One of the Hahn sons serves as the president a! nd CEO. The Hahns believe that they are required to run their business 'in accordance with their religious beliefs and moral principles.'"

Such one-family companies are a narrow slice of the IRS' definition of closely held. At many companies the tax agency considers closely held, not all shareholders are related.

Even Walmart, the retailing giant with publicly traded stock, seems to fit the IRS definition of closely held. A few Walton family members own more than half the shares.

And closely held companies without public shares can also "be very big entities," such as Mars Inc., the family owned candy maker with 70,000 employees, said Marcia D. Greenberger, co-president of the National Women's Law Center. "So there's a question about how broad the reach of the Hobby Lobby decision is."

That will ultimately depend on how many employers decline to offer contraception based on the ruling and whether courts allow it.

"We'll have to see how broadly other corporations try to jump on the bandwagon to say, 'Me too; we don't want to provide this either,'" said Greenberger. "It opens the door for many, many lawyers to be providing all kinds of advice."

KHN Senior Correspondent Julie Rovner contributed.

Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the Kaiser Family Foundation.