Saturday, January 31, 2015

IndyFilmCorp Gets a Monkey Off its Back. Here Comes Forward Progress. (IFLM, LGF, DIS)

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) needs to look over its shoulder. For that matter, Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:LGF) may want to do the same. There's a little company called Independent Film Development Corporation (OTCMKTS:IFLM) that could become a big threat to both of those major players soon, now  that a nagging monkey is officially off its back.

What could a relatively unknown independent film and television outfit like Independent Film Development Corporation do that was a real threat to a name like The Walt Disney Company, or even the lesser-established Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.? Answer: You might be surprised. Remember, when Walt Disney got the ball rolling back in the late 30's, life didn't get easy - nor did the money start to flow in earnest - until the 50's. Prior to that, Disney was largely just another company being held together by sheer willpower. As for Lions Gate Entertainment, prior to huge success as the brains and marketing firepower behind the Twilight movie franchise and a stroke of luck with television's MadMen, Lions Gate wasn't exactly a name that stopped people in their tracks either. Point being, never say never. One good show or movie could literally change everything, the way Cinderella did for The Walt Disney Company in 1950.

But is Independent Film Development Corporation - aka IndyFilmCorp - going to attack on the television and film front, or the theme park front (where none have yet to dethrone Disney)? Despite the moniker, it's the theme park industry that makes IFLM such an interesting stock right now.

Just for the record, Independent Film Development Corporation really is an independent film company. Though it doesn't have the library that a name like Lions Gate Entertainment has - at least not yet - it's got a decent library, and has proven its chops in the arena. It's the producer of the Autograph celebrity biography series, and it owns the rights to the perennially popular Three Stooges shorts, just to drop a few names. It's not film and television that's apt to put IFLM on the map, however. No, the reason The Walt Disney Company needs to be particularly worried is because IndyFilmCorp is planning a new kind of theme park that could make DisneyLand and DisneyWorld look like a schoolyard playground.

Times are changing. So are tastes. Technology has a lot to do with that, whether you're talking about the realism seen on the big and small screen, or the telecommunications technologies that keep all of us connected to, well, everything, all the time. Most consumers have seen, heard, and done it all, if not in real life, then at least digitally. That's what makes it tough for Disney's theme parks to "wow' guests year in and year out. Independent Film Development Corporation has a plan, however, to actually get the adrenaline pumping for theme park guests again. It's going to immerse visitors in an experience that combines special effects with state-of-the-art film technologies that don't just show an amusement park patron something interesting, but lets them live it.... perhaps wondering if what they're seeing may well be real, and not some stage-show.

In other words, IndyFilmCorp is planning to build a theme park that crosses the "cute" line that Disney wouldn't (and won't) cross to enter the place in people's minds where "holy @#$%" will be a common response. Some of the planned attractions at the park being planned for the 500-acre property in the Catskills, New York, are a water flume ride that feels like a journey through the River Styx (with a narrow, splash-filled escape from Hades), a haunted house with ghosts rendered as holograms rather than just a light shining through cardboard cutouts, and instead of lovable cartoon characters walking around the park passing out hugs, guests at the IndyFilmCorp amusement park will catch a glimpse of Bigfoot lurking around the park's tree-laden areas.

Intense? Yes, but that's the point. Consumers want more intensity, and they want help suspending their beliefs of what they know to be real... something most theme parks like Disney can't quite do, as they lack the visual, movie-caliber special effects that Independent Film Development Corporation plans to make a part of the park.

So what, pray tell, is such a big deal all of a sudden? Per this morning's press release, IFLM was victorious in a key court case against a former partner. The end result of that courtroom victory is the cancellation of what would have been a disadvantageous funding deal, plus an award of a little more than $200,000 in cash. The real benefit of the court case, however, is that the company can now focus on the development of the first of what could be many such theme parks rather than worry about arguing things out in a court room. From here, investors and observers can probably expect to see more frequent progress updates on the theme park front. That's always helpful for the underlying stock.

For more information on the theme park concept, here's the company's letter to shareholders unveiling the idea.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Can Google Break Higher?

With shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) trading around $1,146, is GOOG an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Google is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people engage with information. The business is based on the following areas: search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. The company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. Google is a search giant with most of the market share, largely because of its execution and delivery. An increasing number of consumers and companies worldwide are coming online, which will surely increase the amount of eyes on the company's ads and, in turn, advertising revenue. At this rate, look for Google to remain on top of the Internet world.

Google might need a find new home for its giant floating showroom in San Francisco Bay. It seems Google is under fire from state authorities for not having the proper permits necessary to construct the barge in its current location. The four-story structure is housed at Treasure Island, a small piece of land between San Francisco and Oakland. The barge rose to fame late last year as a delightful floating enigma in the San Francisco Bay. The vessel was originally spotted by a CNET reporter and Google would not comment on its purpose. People had great fun speculating about the barge, guessing that it was a floating data center, a Google Glass shop, or a luxury event space. It was dubbed the Google Mystery Barge.

Eventually, Google killed the mystery and some of the fun by announcing the structure was going to be an “interactive space where people can learn about new technology.” But shortly after the story picked up steam, Google hit pause on construction of the barge. The U.S. Coast Guard inspected the structure and the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (or, BCDC) announced it was meeting with Google about the matter in December. The opening date for the barge was delayed until late 2014, according to CNET, and the boat sat idle in its Treasure Island home.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Google stock has been exploding to the upside in the past several years. The stock is currently trading sideways and may need time to stabilize before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Google is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

GOOG

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Google options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Google options

25.61%

43%

41%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

March Options

Flat

Average

April Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Google’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Google look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q4

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.00%

21.08%

-5.53%

13.60%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

16.92%

11.94%

15.52%

31.23%

Earnings Reaction

4.01%

13.79%

-1.55%

4.43%

Google has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Google’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Google stock done relative to its peers, Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and sector?

Google

Yahoo

Microsoft

Baidu

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

2.51%

-13.30%

-2.43%

-13.30%

-3.40%

Google has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Google is an Internet giant that provides valuable search and advertising services to a growing user base worldwide. Th company might need a find new home for its giant floating showroom in San Francisco Bay. The stock has been exploding higher in recent years, but is currently trading sideways. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, which has left investors pleased about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Google has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Google to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Bond funds give investors a lump of coal in 2013

Most bond investors got a lump of coal this year, and that may be just a taste of what's to come in 2014.

The average core bond fund — one that invests at least 85% of its assets in investment-grade bonds — fell 2% in 2013 through Friday, including reinvested interest.

In contrast, the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index gained 31.9% through Friday, including reinvested dividends.

MUTUAL FUNDS: Investors celebrate 2013 with 32% gains

INVESTING: Making sense of 2013's winning funds

Bond prices fall when interest rates rise, which accounts for much of bond funds' suffering. The bellwether 10-year Treasury note closed Friday at 3.01%, 3.00%, which was up from 1.76% at the start of 2013 and the highest since July 2011.

Not all bond funds languished, although none fared as well as the S&P 500. Best bond categories:

• High-yield bond funds, up an average 6.7%, according to Lipper, which tracks the funds. These funds invest in low-quality corporate IOUs, often called junk bonds.

• Loan-participation funds, up an average 5.4%. These funds invest in variable-rate bank loans, which makes them somewhat more resistant to rising interest rates.

• Multi-sector income funds, up 1.6%. The utility outfielders of the bond universe, these funds can invest in many different types of bonds, both in the U.S. and abroad.

A few types of bond funds got hit hard:

• Emerging markets bond funds fell 9.2%. These funds invest in long-term bonds issued by companies or governments in less-developed countries, such as Brazil and Russia. Lower commodity prices put a financial strain on some of these nations, and a higher U.S. dollar pushed prices lower, as well.

• Inflation-protected bond funds fell 7.6%. These funds shield investors from inflation, which didn't occur in the U.S. in 2013. The consumer price index rose just 1.2% the 12 months ended November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• General U.S. Treasury funds. Treasury ! yields were kept artificially low by the Federal Reserve in a bid to boost the economy. As the Fed started to take its foot off the monetary gas pedal, rates rose, pushing bond prices down. The bonds paid little interest to offset the price declines.

If the economy continues its weak recovery, interest rates should continue to rise throughout 2014, pushing bond prices down further. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects the yield on the 10-year Treasury to hit 3.75% by the end of 2014, which will mean more pain for bond-fund investors, but slightly higher yields, as well.

BULL VS. BEAR: Will stocks go higher or stall in 2014?

TOP STOCKS: Stock winners and losers of 2013 offer lessons

For most investors, the best way to protect against rising interest rates is to invest in funds that buy short-term bonds, rather than long-term ones. Fund companies typically publish a statistic for bond funds called duration, which measures a fund's sensitivity to rising rates. A fund with a duration of 3, for example, will see its share price fall 3% for every 1 percentage-point gain in interest rates.

Investors have yanked an estimated net $77 billion from bond funds this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the funds' trade group. But more could be coming out: In the past five years, investors have flooded the funds with $995 billion in new money.

Major bond funds' 2013 performance

How the five largest bond funds, ranked by assets, fared in 2013 by total return (interest, gains reinvested through Friday):

PIMCO Total Return (PTTRX): -2.0%

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX): -2.3%

Templeton Global Bond (TPINX): 2.0%

Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX): 1.0%

Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index (VBISX): 0.1%

Source: Lipper

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Expedia Inc (EXPE): How Q3 Earnings Will Fare?

Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) will report its third quarter results on Oct. 30, 2013 via an earnings release and accompanying webcast. The earnings release will post after market close and the webcast will begin at 1:30 PM Pacific Daylight Time / 4:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

Expedia is the largest online travel company in the world, with an extensive brand portfolio that includes some of the world's leading online travel brands, including Expedia.com, Hotels.com, and Hotwire.

Wall Street expects Expedia to post earnings of to earn $1.35 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus estimate implies 2.3 percent growth from $1.32 cents it earned last year.

Expedia's earnings have topped Street view twice in the past four quarters. The consensus estimate has decreased by 2 cents in the past 90 days. In the past one month, one analyst has cut their view.

Quarterly revenue is expected to increase 14.6 percent to $1.37 billion from $1.20 billion in the same quarter last year.

The key metrics would be gross bookings and average room rates. The company could see more growth in international versus domestic. For the second quarter, gross bookings increased 13 percent. Average daily room rates and average airfares were essentially flat year-over-year. Domestic bookings increased 7 percent while international bookings rose 23 percent.

"We expect Expedia to produce gross bookings of $10.2b (13% YoY growth), driven by international bookings growth of 24% and domestic bookings growth of just 5%," UBS analyst Eric Sheridan said in a client note.

Increased online and offline marketing spend, investment behind trivago and eLong, and an ongoing mix shift to lower margin regions would key drivers of growth. There might be incremental technology-related spend being directed toward the Expedia Traveler Preference Program (ETP) as new hotels come onto the platform.

According to comScore, total online travel spend was up 8.5 percent in the seco! nd quarter 2013 versus tracking up about 11 percent in the third quarter 2013, based on monthly average growth rates for the first two months of the quarter.

From July to August, worldwide comScore desktop data for Expedia showed a 27 percent rise in unique visitors, 2.8 percent increase in total minutes, and a 15.1 percent decrease in total page views

As for Expedia's mobile platform, comScore US mobile data suggests a 47.6 percent increase in unique mobile visitors (iPhone and Android) and a 48.4 percent rise in total mobile minutes.

"We expect hotel bookings to grow 17% (driven by 17% room night growth) and airline bookings to grow 6% (on 1% ticket growth)," Sheridan noted.

Investors will look at how the Trivago investment is contributing to the bottom line as the management has indicated that Trivago to contribute positively to EBITDA in the back half of the year.

In August, Expedia announced an agreement with Travelocity. With Booking.com making a marketing-led push into the US market, potential share losses in Expedia's core domestic market have been a key concern for investors. This deal should help Expedia in addressing these concerns and investors would be hoping for additional color on this topic.

The Street will focus on updates over ETP program and its traction internationally and any incremental observations related to TripAdvisor's meta-display transition / competitive behavior within the bidding platform.

Bellevue, Washington-based Expedia's second-quarter profit dropped to $71.5 million or $0.51 per share from $105.2 million or 76 cents a share last year. Excluding items, adjusted profit for the quarter dropped to 64 cents a share, missing the consensus earnings estimate of 79 cents.

Second-quarter revenues quarter rose 16 percent to $1.21 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had a consensus revenue estimate of $1.26 billion for the quarter.

Expedia has demonstrated mixed performance after its last two third quarter earnings an! nouncemen! ts, increasing 15 percent and decreasing 6 percent, respectively. The stock, which trades 14 times its 2014 consensus earnings estimate, has unperformed the market by 35 percent on a year-to-date basis.

How To Find Market Bargains

As stocks have continued to rise over the past year, so too have price/earnings ratios. Back in mid-November of last year, for example, the S&P 500 was trading for just under 16 times trailing 12-month as-reported earnings. Today, that figure is up above 18.

The 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), meanwhile, was just under 21 back then, but now is about 24. Throw in the fact that profit margins are at or near all-time highs, which some say is not sustainable, and many investors are starting to get a little wary about valuations.

I, for one, am not particularly worried by those figures, particularly given the low interest-rate environment we are currently in. Yes, the shorter-term P/E ratio has been rising, but is far from exorbitant; the CAPE, while on the higher side, is not astronomical, and is in many ways a flawed measure; and there is good evidence that, while profit margins may decline a bit, they're not going to go plummeting back down to long-term means.

Still, if you're not convinced that the P/E environment is an attractive one, there are plenty of other ways to value stocks than earnings-based measures. Benjamin Graham, known as the Father of Value Investing, used the price/book ratio (as well as the P/E). David Dreman used the P/B too, along with several other metrics. And Forbes' own Kenneth Fisher wrote an entire book about using the price/sales ratio (PSR) to find attractive stocks.

Over a decade ago, I developed Guru Strategies that mimic the published approaches of some of history's greatest investors, including Graham, Dreman and Fisher. Like the gurus themselves, these models use a number of non-earnings valuation metrics, like the price/book and price/sales ratios. And right now, they are finding plenty of fundamentally sound, attractively priced stocks using these non-earnings metrics. (I'd also note that the broader market is reasonably attractive using them, with a 1.5 PSR and 2.2 P/B ratio, according to Morningstar.)

Here are a handful that are catching their eyes. As always, you should invest in stocks like these as part of a broader, well diversified portfolio.

Annaly Capital Management Annaly Capital Management: New York-based Annaly ($11 billion market cap) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that is currently paying out an 11.9% dividend yield. It gets strong interest from my Dreman-based model.

This contrarian approach looks for companies that are in the cheapest 20% of the market on any two of four valuation metrics: the price/book, price/sales, price/earnings, and price/cash flow ratios. Annaly is the rare firm that meets that target in all four categories (3.5 P/E, 6.4 P/CF, 0.90 P/B, 8.4 P/D).

Of course, being cheap doesn't mean much if the company is a dog, so Dreman looked at a number of other fundamentals. The model I base on his writings looks, for example, for companies that have high returns on equity. At 24%, Annaly fits the bill.

Telecom Argentina (TEO): This Argentine company ($3 billion market cap), which also offers cellular services in Paraguay, is majority-owned by Nortel Inversora SA Nortel Inversora SA (which in turn is majority-owned by Telecom Italia Telecom Italia).

TEO's P/E is low—8.1—but that's not the only sign it's undervalued. My James O'Shaughnessy-based growth model has strong interest in the stock in part because its PSR is just 0.74, well below the model's 1.5 upper limit. This approach looks for low-PSR stocks that also have strong momentum—O'Shaughnessy wanted to find stocks that the market was embracing, but which hadn't gotten too pricey. With a solid 12-month relative strength of 87, TEO makes the grade. The strategy also likes that TEO has upped earnings per share in each year of the past five-year period.

TEO's PSR is one reason my Fisher-inspired model also likes the stock. Fisher pioneered the use of the metric in his 1984 classic Super Stocks, and, while his approach has shifted since then, my Super Stocks-inspired model has kept putting up strong results. The strategy also likes TEO's long-term inflation-adjusted growth rate of 20%, and its three-year average net profit margins of 13%. And my Dreman-based approach likes that TEO's P/E and price/cash flow ratios are both in the cheapest 20% of the market, and that it has a 28.9% return on equity and 4.6% dividend.

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Monday, January 26, 2015

Advisory expansion at Schwab helps 3Q profits climb

schwab, third quarter, revenue, profits, earnings Bloomberg News

Third-quarter profits grew at The Charles Schwab Corp. as the firm worked to expand its advisory services division, company officials said Tuesday.

Schwab increased its profits by 17.4% to $290 million over the comparable quarter in 2012, according to a statement.

The earnings reflect Schwab's continued evolution from a pioneer of discount brokerage to a provider of broader advisory services, Schwab chief executive Walt Bettinger said in the statement.

Nearly half the firm's $2.15 trillion in client assets are in an advisory program, a 17% increase from last year. Schwab provides custody services for independent financial advisers in addition to its retail-brokerage and pooled-investments businesses.

“These client results supported double-digit percentage increases in all three of our main revenue sources and 15% overall revenue growth versus the year-ago quarter,” Mr. Bettinger said. “Even with the continued head wind created by an interest rate environment that remains at historic lows, our third-quarter revenues surpassed all our prior quarterly results save the extraordinary spike we experienced at the height of the internet bubble.”

The results helped push shares of the company ahead $1.02, or 4.63% to $23.03 on Tuesday amid a broad stock market decline.

Despite the results, Schwab has suffered some setbacks.

Schwab's

On social media, can wirehouses, regional broker-dealers catch RIAs?

Advisers at brokerage firms could be about to catch up to registered investment advisers in the social media race, as technology improves and compliance fears ease.

Overly restrictive compliance departments at broker-dealers have been the biggest hurdle in getting brokerage-firm representatives up and running on social media, observers said. Unlike RIAs, many broker-dealers require pre-approval of personal messages, or limit posts to canned corporate material.

For more on social media,Check out Investment News' special report and see how you stack up.

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. doesn't require pre-approval of social media posts, but B-Ds have to have “one policy that applies to thousands of advisers, so they take as many precautions as they can,” said Kristen Luke, owner of Wealth Management Marketing, a consulting firm.

Pre-approval can pretty much kill interactive Twitter usage, and limits Facebook and LinkedIn postings as well.

“If you're posting scripted tweets … it won't be relevant,” said Kristin Andree, founder of Andree Media & Consulting, who works with advisers.

Using the “same content used by hundreds or thousands of other advisers” won't be effective in building a following, Ms. Luke added.

But “the tables are about to turn” in the brokerage firms' favor because of better compliance tools, said Michael Kitces, a partner and the director of research for Pinnacle Advisory Group Inc.

He points to technology provider Hearsay Inc., which this month raised $30 million in additional venture capital funding. The company manages social networks for employees of such highly regulated companies as financial firms. In July, Raymond James Financial Inc. signed on as a Hearsay client.

“That's a lot of … dollars and technology being pushed towards larger broker-dealers,” Mr. Kitces said.

Indeed, brokerage firms are making progress on the social media front.

Cambridge Investment Research Inc. lets its representatives post on Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook, subject to a post-use review, said Cindy Schaus, a Cambridge spokeswoman.

“About a third of our 2,400 advisers are active on some level, and have all their [social-media] accounts in place,” she said.

Commonwealth Financial Network allows use of LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook.

Representatives cannot make recommendations of specific products or services on Twitter, said John Hagberg, assistant director of licensing and compliance at the firm.

About 1,100 Commonwealt! h advisers out of 1,450 total are registered for at least one social-media platform.

At LPL Financial LLC, about 5,000 of the firm's advisers, or about 40% of the total, are signed up to use social media. That number is up almost 60% for the year as of August, said Joan Khoury chief marketing officer.

About 36% of LPL reps use LinkedIn, 10% use Facebook and about 6% use Twitter, Ms. Khoury said.

“We do see growth on Twitter because we're all active there,” she said.

LPL advisers must get pre-approval for YouTube videos, but other than that, only static content needs to be pre-approval, Ms. Khoury said.

In a few months, the firm will be rolling out a new social media training program called LPL Digitial IQ.

Raymond James advisers can use Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, but content has to be pre-approved.

“It's not real-time [posting] but they usually get approval within a couple hours,” said Katie Berg, product manager for digital assets at Raymond James.

Most advisers seem to use Twitter to follow other people and news, she said, so advisers don't seem to be affected by the delay.

“They do a good job of actually getting” content approved, said Chris Beard of Gateway Wealth Strategies, a branch of Raymond James Financial Services Inc.

“But I hope to get to the point where we can put out more content on the spur of the moment,” he said.

Close to 2,000 of Raymond James' 5,300 advisers in its independent and employee channels have connected to the Hearsay software, Ms. Berg said, although not all of those are active users.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch allows its reps to use LinkedIn only, said spokeswoman Susan Atran.

But “advisers have full use of LinkedIn: they can connect, message, invite, search, etc.,” Ms. Atran said. Messages are supervised, but not pre-approved.

“For now, LinkedIn is our primary channel,” Ms. Atran said. “Twitter is looked at more as a firm content channel.”

Merrill ! adviser J! ames Maltese has used LinkedIn since late 2011 as a way to keep up with his clients.

“I look to see what's going on with my connections,” most of whom are clients, Mr. Maltese said. “A lot of things happen between [client] reviews, like job changes.”

LinkedIn also helps him connect with the children and grandchildren of his clients, Mr. Maltese added.

Wells Fargo Advisors has had a LinkedIn pilot program in place since last September in which about 50 of its advisers can post content. In the meantime, the firm has gotten about of third of its 15,000 reps to put up a profile on LinkedIn, said Jeff Leonard, vice president of digital marketing strategy. This year, the firm added Twitter to the pilot.

“LinkedIn will be our lead platform, at least for the foreseeable future,” Mr. Leonard said.

Expanding posting capability next year to more of the firm's advisers depends on getting funding for the extra cost of compliance software, Mr. Leonard added.

Morgan Stanley has about 4,700 of its reps approved for use of social networking, said spokeswoman Christy Jockle. About 75% use just LinkedIn, and 25% use both LinkedIn and Twitter.

The firm's advisers can send messages and use other LinkedIn functions without pre-approval, but can tweet only pre-approved content, Ms. Jockle said.

Use of social media by Morgan Stanley advisers has seen “steady growth,” Ms. Jockle said, with about two-thirds of the approved reps actively using LinkedIn by sending at least one invitation to a contact.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Opening Print and S&P Levels to Watch

The Fed Countdown The Asian markets closed mostly lower and Europe is trading down across the board. The S&P has four economic numbers to get past this morning, and it's our guess that afterwards things will go back to sleep. Let's face it, the most recent rally has been the shorts covering. Once that's over the S&P will be susceptible to selling off a little further. While we understand the risk-on, risk-off type trade, we are not sure that completely speaks for the current slowdown. Historically, the markets tend to pick up after the Labor Day holiday. Many traders who take time off at the end of the summer or have been inactive start looking for new trading opportunities. It's almost expected that you see an uptick in volatility and overall volume as the market moves into September. The rollover and the quarterly rebalance should help for some increased trade. We call the current slowdown the Labor Day holiday that never ended. We know things slow down when the S&P roll starts, but this is different. The big accounts are barely trading, and while the smaller accounts are still active, they have cut back considerably. The $85 Billion Question With the S&P shaking off all the current negatives, the big question is, how will it react during the Fed's two-day meeting? Currently the S&P has pretty much settled into the idea that the Fed is going to taper or pull back, but the idea of just shutting down the program in full is not going to happen. In fact, we think the Fed wants to leave the bond buying program open to adjust up or down if needed. Our View Yesterday our call was to sell the rally. In the Closing Print video we expected further weakness today, especially this morning. We think it's fair to say that while the S&P futures have rallied, they are not out of the woods yet. Instead they are in a range below a familiar key level of 1678. With that in mind, we lean to selling the early rally and buying weakness. As always, use stops and keep an eye on the 10-handle rule. Don't forget to catch MrTopStep on The Closing Print video found under the OptionsTV page (top bar). We report directly from the SPX pits, wrapping up the day and positioning for trade tomorrow. OptionsProfits can be followed on Twitter at twitter.com/OptionsProfits MrTopStep can be followed on Twitter at twitter.com/MrTopStep For LIVE futures chat, more information on the 10-handle rule and futures educational content CLICK HERE FOR A SEVEN-DAY FREE TRIAL.

Ballmer, the Last of Tech’s Old Guard, Departs

Andy Grove, one of the founders of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) and its greatest CEO has been gone since 1998. His company has fallen into deep decline as its place as engine of the PC has become irrelevant. John Young, Hewlett-Packard’s dominant CEO has been gone as long. None of the people from that generation of HP management would recognize the company today. Nor would the former heads of Intel competitor Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) or long-gone Compaq or Gateway.

Steve Ballmer of Microsoft was younger than any of these, but he was in “senior management” at Microsoft in the Eighties and Nineties because his place at the top of the software company was cemented well before he was 30. And, of course, the same was true with Bill Gates who has been retired for a generation already, at least in tech years.

All of these departures have left only Ballmer and John Chambers of Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) from the time before the tech industry stock boom of 1999 which collapsed and nearly burned the entire industry to the ground. Chambers has reached was could be called retirement age in the traditional sense, and will certainly be gone very soon. (Steve Jobs belongs on the list, too, He was less successful than Gates and Ballmer at first, and more successful later)

Ballmer, therefore, is last in his class, a fact that many employees and investors regret. But, all the regret can be measured against whether Gates of any Microsoft CEO would have seen the rise of devices no larger than a human hand slap down an industry which was as big and as important as any in the 20th Century. Microsoft’s decades of success simply blinded it.

Ballmer and Gates fancied themselves as founders of the internet, as well. To the extent that Windows was at the foundation of the computer, and Internet Explorer of access online, that was true. Legal forces in Europe took those tools away to a large extent. And, as per the internet, Microsoft never replaced them

However, Microsoft persisted to be a central force online. It funded MSN, and its own search tools, which went up against AOL (NYSE: AOL), whose founder Steve Case is long gone. Along with Case was there was Yahoo!”s (NASDAQ: YHOO) founder Jerry Yang the off and on leader until his refusal to accept Ballmer’s insistent efforts to buy the portal company injured him.

Not a single one of these companies saw Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) slip by them. That will be at the core of the blame leveled at Ballmer more than his failures in hardware (accept the remarkably successful XBox which Microsoft could not morph into a next generation online device) By the time search and social media were huge factors, Microsoft and the companies from its generation, which had survived the tech bubble, had been flanked by more popular products.

Ballmer will leave Microsoft, and along with that tech’s old guard will be almost gone. He will be several years short of sixty, retired at a time in his life when most CEOs have just been appointed.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Logansport Financial Corp. Reported Net Earnings (OTCBB: LOGN, OTCMKTS:CLNO)

logn

Logansport Financial Corp. (LOGN)

Today, LOGN remains (0.00%) +0.000 at $23.25 thus far (ref. google finance Delayed: 10:11AM EDT July 25, 2013).

Logansport Financial Corp. previously reported net earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 of $462,000 or $.71 per diluted share, compared to earnings in 2012 of $427,000 or $.54 per diluted share. Year to date the company reported net earnings of $936,000 for 2013 compared to $763,000 for 2012. Diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2013 were $1.43 compared to $.97 for the six months ended June 30, 2012. Total assets at June 30, 2013 were $165.8 million compared to total assets at December 31, 2012 of $172.9 million. Total shareholder's equity at December 31, 2013 was $18.6 million compared to $19.0 million at June 30, 2012

Logansport Financial Corp. (LOGN) 5 day chart:

lognchart

clno

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (OTCMKTS:CLNO) (www.cleantechtransit.net ) through its Discovery Carbon subsidiary, develops emissions offset strategies for companies, municipalities, and countries. Today, CLNO has surged (+4.05%) up + 0.007 at $.180 with 33,560 shares in play thus far (ref. google finance Delayed: 12:49PM EDT July 25, 2013).

CLNO's daily range is at ($.19 – $.17) thus far and currently at $.180 would be considered a (+16263.63%) gain above the 52 wk low of $.0011. The stock is up +0.18 ( +7400%) since the concerning dates of January 28, 2013 – July 25, 2013. +7400% is the 6 month high and rightly so.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO ) 5 day chart:

clnochart

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Try This Weird Trick to Find See the Future for Schawk

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Schawk (NYSE: SGK  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Schawk do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Schawk sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Schawk's latest average DSO stands at 76.2 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 76.4 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Schawk look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Schawk's year-over-year revenue shrank 1.5%, and its AR dropped 2.1%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO decreased 1.6% from the prior-year quarter. It was up 7.2% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

Looking for alternatives to Schawk? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add Schawk to My Watchlist.

Boom in Demand for 401(k) Advisors

The 401(k) market is roaring ahead for qualified plan advisors, but advisors who specialize in group retirement plans are few and far between.

Working with 401(k) plans is time-consuming and “it is hard to find someone willing to learn the business. You have to get someone early on in their career,” said Jania Stout, practice leader and vice president of the Fiduciary Consulting Group at PSA Financial Services Inc., based in Hunt Valley, Md.

Because of that, Stout says she is always looking for skilled advisors to hire. If five skilled 401(k) advisors applied for a job with PSA today, she said she would hire them on the spot.

“It is a big market. There is a huge shift going on. It used to be that brokers or advisors would have a couple of plans in their whole entire career. Now most of the plans are moving to 401(k) specialists,” she said. “Because of that, our team is growing. A lot of plan sponsors are looking for someone really qualified at this; someone who knows compliance and provider landscapes.”

The fact that plan sponsors are actively searching out skilled 401(k) advisors is a recent trend, she said.

In the past, plan sponsors could practically ignore their plans. The 401(k) was a relatively small employee benefit that was overshadowed by time spent working with health care benefits. Now, because of litigation and regulatory scrutiny of plan fiduciaries, chief financial officers are realizing they can’t just turn to their golf buddy as a plan advisor.

There is a big gap between the advisors who are real experts in qualified plans and newer advisors who are on the learning curve while trying to amass clients, said Jason Grantz, an institutional consultant with Lexington, Ky.-based Unified Trust Retirement Plan Consulting Group.

To address that, some advisors are beginning to partner with those who have the expertise. “They are splitting accounts instead of competing against each other,” Grantz said.

That trend will continue as greater regulatory attention is paid to qualified retirement plans.

The industry has evolved much in the past 15 years. The 401(k) plan, designed as a supplemental retirement vehicle to Social Security and pension plans, is now expected to shoulder most of the retirement load. This evolution has led to more regulation to make sure participants are treated fairly, are offered the best benefit and that conflicts of interest are vetted and corrected as soon as possible, Grantz said.

A lot of new regulations have been adopted in the past few years and more are coming including changes to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s and Department of Labor’s fiduciary standards.

That will have the dual effect of keeping many out of the business and boosting demand for those with the right skills.

Linda Leitz, chair of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, or NAPFA, said her organization hasn’t seen a lot of certified financial planners jumping in to work in the 401(k) space, and a big reason for that is the regulatory environment.

“ERISA said that anyone advising on a plan is a fiduciary and needs to take a fiduciary stand in dealing with people,” she said. “I don’t see CFPs leaving because of that. Many are saying they are not going to have that relationship with 100 different participants in a plan.”

Stout, for one, nowadays looks at junior brokers at wire houses who want to transition to a fee-based or fiduciary advisory model. It also has looked at professions that have the necessary skills to be an effective plan advisor, people like teachers and military veterans.

“So much of our job is educating plan sponsors on regulations or how fees and revenue-sharing works. Being a good communicator is really important,” Stout said. “We look at industries people haven’t thought of before.”

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Scruples and Stocks: Say So Long to the Days of Dreadful Returns

Back when the sustainable and responsible investment, or SRI, strategy hit the scene, interested investors had to decide whether investing with their consciences was worth passing up some pretty sweet returns.

The focus then was about avoiding "bad" stocks -- companies like Smith & Wesson  (NASDAQ: SWHC  )  were kicked out of SRI portfolios because of their involvement in firearms production. But banishing Smith & Wesson from the list of qualifying companies also meant passing up the 444% gains it achieved in the last 10 years.

SRI investing has come a long way -- much to the benefit of those who want to align their investment dollars with their beliefs.

Today's SRI is about inclusion -- about identifying potential winners. It no longer requires a sacrifice of returns -- and may even help juice your portfolio's returns.

Consider Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) , which has appreciated more than 310% since its IPO three years ago. An SRI analysis would have found that this company was well positioned to benefit from issues such as climate change. Not only does Tesla's electric-vehicle technology reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but it may also be an important element of the next-generation electrical grid.

The Motley Fool recently hosted a Climate Change Summit for investors. In this video, Motley Fool contributor Sara Murphy talks about ways to make SRI investing a strong part of your portfolio -- and not a sacrificial lamb.

Tesla's plan to disrupt the global auto business has yielded spectacular results. But giant competitors are already moving to disrupt Tesla. Will the company be able to fend them off and remain true to its SRI nature? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available. Get instant access by clicking here now.

Is High-End Retail Bouncing Back?

Tiffany (NYSE: TIF  ) is finally back in the winner's circle. After missing expectations for several quarters in a row, the jewelry retailer surprised investors by reporting a strong 9% boost in global sales to start 2013. Revenue in its U.S market rebounded from a disappointing holiday season, as well. 

In the video below, Fool contributor Demitrios Kalogeropoulos discusses Tiffany's results, and compares them to another luxury goods brand, Coach (NYSE: COH  ) , which has seen some improvement in its business this year too. Demitrios argues that, for investors looking for exposure to the higher end of the retail market, Coach is the better bet right now.

The retail space as a whole is in the midst of the biggest paradigm shift since mail order took off at the turn of last century. Only those most forward-looking and capable companies will survive, and they'll handsomely reward those investors who understand the landscape. You can read about the 3 Companies Ready to Rule Retail in The Motley Fool's special report. Uncovering these top picks is free today; just click here to read more.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

LivePerson's Big Opportunity in 2013

The following video excerpt was taken from an interview with Robert LoCascio, founder and CEO of LivePerson (NASDAQ: LPSN  ) , as he talks about what was behind the company's incredible success story. In this segment, he discusses what lies ahead for his company, and the future of the 1-800 number.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for this year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report, "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

 

Brendan Byrnes: Right. So when you look at LivePerson, your opportunities going forward, let's talk about, maybe, 2013 in particular. What are some opportunities, maybe some milestones, events going to happen over the next year or so?

Robert LoCascio: The biggest one is we're rolling out the live engaged platform across all of our customers now, so that'll give our customers the ability to get all the products, all of our partner products, all the intelligence -- and they're going to get it in one interface. Today they've got separate products, and they've got to log into voice, so I think that's our opportunity. I think international is a real opportunity for us. And I think just the growth in the core business where 1-800 numbers are starting to really be questioned, and the guys who run the contact centers are saying like, "We should be doing something else," and, "I think there's a pace that maybe we could accelerate there," so those are kind of the interesting things in the business this year.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Will Rising Profits Help GM Cruise Past Its Recall Fiasco?

Gm New Pickups General MotorsThe 2014 Chevrolet Silverado was a strong seller for GM, without the incentives that the model has needed in recent years. General Motors (GM) reported a third-quarter profit that beat estimates Thursday, thanks in part to strong U.S. sales of pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles. Excluding some one-time items, GM's profit rose to $0.97 a share. That's up a penny from a year ago, and $0.02 ahead of Wall Street's estimate. Some Wall Street analysts had expressed concern that GM's earnings would be hit hard by challenges in Russia and South America. But the damage was less serious than they had feared -- and GM's new trucks helped offset much of it. New Trucks and SUVs Have Improved GM's Profits at Home GM introduced all-new versions of its Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups last year, and new versions of its big SUVs earlier in 2014. Those products have posted good sales gains -- but more important, they're commanding much stronger markups than their predecessors. The old Silverado and Sierra sold well too -- but to get those strong sales, GM needed to offer high incentives. Incentives are the cash-back and cheap-financing deals that are so often featured in automakers' ads. Automakers use them as a way to adjust pricing in response to competition or market conditions. High incentives can boost sales quite a bit -- but at the expense of profits. GM's exact profit per sale is a closely guarded secret. But it's no secret that its new pickups and SUVs are much more profitable than the old ones. That means, for instance, that even though the Silverado's sales gains have been modest -- up 5.9 percent this year through September, versus a 22 percent gain for Fiat Chrysler's Ram -- GM's profits on the Silverado (and its other trucks) are almost certainly up quite a bit more. Earlier this year, those improved profits helped offset the steep costs of GM's massive recalls, keeping the company in the black. With recall-related costs mostly in the past, that money goes to GM's bottom line. The result: a $2.5 billion profit in North America, and an outstanding 9.5 percent operating profit margin. Working to Turn Around Losses in Europe and South America That profit margin is a big achievement for GM's new management, which has been focused on closing the profitability gap with rival Ford (F) in GM's home market. But GM's overseas divisions aren't nearly as profitable as North America. CEO Mary Barra has said that GM's goal is to consistently post a 9.5 percent profit margin for the whole company by early next decade. And GM still has a lot of work to do to get there. That work starts with Europe, where GM lost $387 million in the third quarter. GM has lost billions in Europe in recent years, but it's working on an aggressive turnaround plan that is expected to swing those losses to profits by 2016. The company has made progress. New models like the popular Opel Mokka SUV, a near-twin to the U.S.-market Buick Encore, have helped sales and profits. Meanwhile, a new management team has reduced costs, boosted sales, and helped integrate the Opel brand more closely with GM's global product plans. More recently, challenges in South America have weighed on GM and its key rivals. Those rivals include Ford, which warned last month that it would lose a billion dollars in South America in 2014 following big slowdowns in Brazil and some other Latin American nations. GM South America isn't doing quite that badly. But it did lose $32 million in the third quarter, down from a solid $284 million profit a year ago. GM Is Still Strong in China, and Working to Get Stronger Asia has been a bright spot for GM for several years now. Barra noted on Thursday that GM has a 15.2 percent share of China's market, the world's largest. That's second only to mighty Volkswagen (VLKAY) -- and GM is investing aggressively to ensure that its growth outpaces that of the overall market. It may sound ironic to Americans, but GM's Chinese unit was caught off guard by a boom in SUV sales that materialized over the past couple of years. Of course, GM sells plenty of SUVs and crossovers in the U.S. and other markets, but it didn't have many in China. That will change over the next year or two as GM sets up new manufacturing lines for several of those SUV models in China. Meanwhile, its existing products are still doing well. GM's Asian joint ventures made $490 million in the third quarter. Most of that was from China, and it was good enough to give GM a 9.6 percent operating profit margin in the world's largest auto market. How GM Will Put the Recalls in the Past Barra is clearly hoping to put GM's recall mess in the rearview mirror and get investors -- and customers -- focused on its much-improved cars and trucks, and its improving profit picture. That will take time. GM has recalled over 30 million vehicles this year, and many have yet to be fixed. There are still lawsuits pending, and GM may end up paying billions to settle potential criminal charges. Barra and her team can't really control how all of that unfolds. But the things they can control -- GM's business efforts and its products -- are steadily improving, and the company's long-term plans are still on track. Those improvements, in time, are how Barra and GM will make the recalls old news. More from John Rosevear
•Why Chrysler's Ram Is Winning the Pickup War •Cadillac's Plan to Reclaim Its Luxury Street Cred Is Accelerating •Ford Is Falling Behind at Home - and It's Not a Problem

Dow Down 0.6%; CarMax Shares Fall After Q2 Results

Related BZSUM Ascena Retail Drops On Downbeat Earnings; CF Industries Shares Gain Markets Mixed; Carnival Profit Tops Street View

Toward the end of trading Tuesday, the Dow traded down 0.60 percent to 17,069.87 while the NASDAQ gained 0.35 percent to 4,511.69. The S&P also fell, declining 0.49 percent to 1,984.48.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

In trading on Tuesday, basic materials shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 0.02 percent. Top gainers in the sector included AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ), up 4.9 percent, and CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), up 6.5 percent.

Non-cyclical consumer goods & services shares fell 0.76 percent on Tuesday. Top losers in the sector included Diamond Foods (NASDAQ: DMND), down 4.2 percent, and Omega Protein (NYSE: OME), off 3.6 percent.

Top Headline

Carnival (NYSE: CCL) reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and raised its FY14 forecast.

The Miami, Florida-based company posted a quarterly fiscal third-quarter profit of $1.25 billion, or $1.60 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $934 million, or $1.20 per share.

Its revenue climbed to $4.95 billion from $4.73 billion. On an adjusted basis, Carnival earned $1.58 per share in the quarter. However, analysts were expecting a profit of $1.44 per share on revenue of $4.93 billion.

Equities Trading UP

Salix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SLXP) shares shot up 4.52 percent to $167.05 on report of takeover talks with Allergan. Allergan (NYSE: AGN) is set to acquire Salix Pharmaceuticals in a deal probably worth more than $10 billion, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Shares of Sangamo Biosciences (NASDAQ: SGMO) got a boost, shooting up 3.16 percent to $11.11 after dropping 5.90% on Monday. Jefferies initiated coverage on Sangamo BioSciences with a Buy rating and a $22.00 price target

CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF) shares were also up, gaining 6.60 percent to $272.66 on confirmation of merger talks with Yara International ASA (OTC: YARIY).

Equities Trading DOWN

Shares of Ascena Retail Group (NASDAQ: ASNA) were down 17.66 percent to $13.61 after the company reported downbeat fourth-quarter earnings and issued a weak outlook.

Avanir Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AVNR) shares tumbled 2.24 percent to $10.96 after the company announced an offering of $200 million of common stock.

CarMax (NYSE: KMX) was down, falling 10.21 percent to $47.42 after the company reported downbeat fiscal second-quarter profit.

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded up 0.84 percent to $91.63, while gold traded up 0.46 percent to $1,223.50.

Silver traded up 0.06 percent Tuesday to $17.79, while copper fell 0.10 percent to $3.04.

Eurozone

European shares were lower today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 declined 1.38 percent, the Spanish Ibex Index fell 1.33 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index declined 1.56 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX fell 1.58 percent and the French CAC 40 fell 1.87 percent while UK shares dropped 1.44 percent.

Economics

The ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Index rose 0.1% in the week ended Saturday versus the earlier week.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index declined 0.6% in the first three weeks of September versus August.

The FHFA house price index gained 0.1% in July, versus a 0.3% growth in June.

The flash reading of US Markit manufacturing PMI came in unchanged at 57.9 in September, versus economists’ expectations for a reading of 58.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to 14.00 in September, versus a prior reading of 12.00. However, economists were expecting a reading of 10.00.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Futures Commodities M&A Markets

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Saturday, January 17, 2015

Trump Entertainment Files for Bankruptcy Again

Slew Of Casino Closures Threatens To Take Toll On Atlantic City Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesTrump Entertainment Resortsplans to close the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino on Sept. 16. ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. -- Trump Entertainment Resorts filed for bankruptcy Tuesday and threatened to shut down the Taj Mahal Casino Resort, which would make it the fifth Atlantic City casino to close this year. The company owns Trump Plaza, which is closing in a week, and the Taj Mahal, which has been experiencing cash-flow problems and had been trying to stave off a default with its lenders. The company said the Taj Mahal could close Nov. 13 if it doesn't win salary concessions from union workers. It's the fourth such filing for the struggling casino company or its corporate predecessors. The company filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware, saying it has liabilities of between $100 million and $500 million, and assets of no more than $50,000. It missed its quarterly tax payment due last month, and says it doesn't have the cash to make an interest payment to lenders due at the end of the month. It also says both its Internet gambling partners have taken steps to end their contracts with Trump Entertainment. It said cost-cutting negotiations with the main casino workers' union have stalled, and that the company is preparing notices warning employees the Taj Mahal may close on Nov. 13. "Absent expense reductions, particularly concessions from their unions, the debtors expect that the Taj Mahal will close on or shortly after November 13, 2014 and that all operating units will be terminated between November 13, 2014 and November 27, 2014," the company wrote in its bankruptcy filing. If the company makes good on its threat to close the Taj Mahal, it would further rock an already shell-shocked casino market in what just a few years ago was the nation's second-largest gambling market after Nevada. Now, New Jersey has fallen behind Pennsylvania. Three other Atlantic City casinos have closed this year, as the industry struggles with competition in nearby states. Atlantic City began the year with 12 casinos, but could end it with seven if the Taj Mahal closes. So far this year, the Atlantic Club, Showboat and Revel have gone out of business, with Trump Plaza closing next Tuesday. The bankruptcy filing came a day after Gov. Chris Christie's administration told the state's casinos and horse tracks that they can legally offer sports betting -- a move that defies a federal ban on it and is sure to be challenged in court by the professional and amateur sports leagues which have fought it thus far. Trump Entertainment has struggled since the day it emerged from its last bankruptcy in 2010, having filed the year before. It came out of bankruptcy with $350 million in debt, and currently has more than $285 million in debt. As of the end of July, the company employed 2,800 people. The company has been trying to reduce expenses and debt, including selling its former Trump Marina casino for $38 million to Landry's, which now runs it as the Golden Nugget Atlantic City. It also sold the Steel Pier for $4.5 million; a warehouse for $1.9 million, and its former corporate offices in a converted firehouse for $3.1 million. That building now houses the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority. It has been trying for years to sell Trump Plaza. A deal to sell it to a California firm for $20 million last year fell through. The company also said it has been in negotiations with Local 54 of the Unite-HERE union on cost-cutting measures it says it needs to survive, but that the union has rejected them. Bob McDevitt, the union president, said that Trump Entertainment wanted union members to surrender their health insurance and pension plans, something he rejected. McDevitt said that even if the union agreed to those concessions, they would only total $11 million per year, which would hardly make a difference in the company's finances. The concessions would be on top of a separate $4 million round of union concessions the company won in 2011. Donald Trump owns a 9 percent stake in the firm, but neither controls it nor has any involvement in it. He is suing the company to remove his name from the properties, which he says have fallen into disrepair and do not meet agreed-upon standards of quality and luxury.

Friday, January 16, 2015

4 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Summer Gains

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

Kodiak Oil & Gas

Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S. This stock closed up 4.7% at $14.91 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 35.29 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 5.77 million

Volume % Change: 510%

From a technical perspective, KOG ripped sharply higher here and broke out into new 52-week-high territory with monster upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $10.08 to its intraday high of $15.11. During that uptrend, shares of KOG have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the short-term if KOG can manage to take out Monday's intraday high of $15.11 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in KOG as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $14.65 or above more support at $14 and then once it sustains a move or close above $15.11 with volume that this near or above 5.77 million shares. If that move gets started soon, then KOG will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $17 to $20.

Fox Factory

Fox Factory (FOXF) designs, engineers, manufactures and markets suspension products for mountain bikes, side-by-side vehicles, on-road and off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, and motorcycles. This stock closed up 4.1% at $16.14 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 620,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 106,795

Volume % Change: 447%

From a technical perspective, FOXF jumped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $15.21 with strong upside volume flows. This stock recently dropped sharply lower from $18 to that low of $15.21 with heavy downside volume. Following that drop, shares of FOXF have now started to rebound off that $15.21 low with strong upside volume. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if FOXF manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $16.18 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FOXF as long as it's trending above that recent low of $15.21 and then once it sustains a move or close above $16.18 with volume that hits near or above 106,795 shares. If that move gets started soon, then FOXF will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $17.23 to its 200-day moving average of $17.37. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give FOXF a chance to tag $18 to $19.

Materion

Materion (MTRN), through its subsidiaries, produces and sells engineered materials for use in electrical, electronic, thermal and structural applications primarily in the U.S., Europe and Asia. This stock closed up 2.1% at $38.19 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 212,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 78,663

Volume % Change: 140%

From a technical perspective, MTRN jumped notably higher here right above some near-term support at $37 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $31.61 to its recent high of $39.26. During that uptrend, shares of MTRN have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This spike higher on Monday is quickly starting to push shares of MTRN within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if MTRN manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $38.33 to its 52-week high of $39.26 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MTRN as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $37 or at $36 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 78,663 shares. If that breakout gets set off soon, then MTRN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $45 to $50.

Auspex Pharmaceuticals

Auspex Pharmaceuticals (ASPX), a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing in novel medicines for the treatment of orphan diseases. This stock closed up 5.2% at $21.05 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 249,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 138,040

Volume % Change: 85%

From a technical perspective, ASPX ripped sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $20.23 with strong upside volume. This stock recently formed a major bottoming chart pattern, since each time it pulled back to right below $20 a share it found buying interest. That buying interest supported the stock over the last month and change, and now shares of ASPX are starting to rip higher off those support levels. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the short-term if ASPX manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $21.44 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ASPX as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $20 or above more near-term support at $19.12 and then once it sustains a move or close above $21.44 with volume that's near or above 138,040 shares. If that move gets started soon, then ASPX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at around $24 to $25.67. Any high-volume move above $25.67 will then give ASPX a chance to tag $30.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars



>>5 Toxic Stocks You Need to Sell in July



>>3 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves Higher

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Wednesday, January 14, 2015

PIMCO Funds Bled $5.5 Billion in April: Morningstar

Morningstar (MORN) says investors added close to $28 billion to long-term mutual funds in April. The fund flows included strong movement to both equity and bond funds.

There’s more bad news than good in the latest data, however, for PIMCO. Overall, the bond shop had net outflows of $5.5 billion last month, bringing its year-to-date outflows to some $21 billion.

On the bright side, the PIMCO Income Fund had $951 million of inflows. 

Still, Morningstar points out, the fixed-income fund group has lost nearly $80 billion to outflows over the past 12 months.

In contrast, Vanguard has seen its total fund flows jump $10.1 billion in April and $45.6 billion from January to April of this year.

The top fund for flows in April was the Vanguard Total Stock Fund, which attracted $3.6 billion in April and $12.3 billion year to date.

In contrast, the flagship PIMCO Total Return Fund had net outflows of $3.1 billion in April. Its outflows for the first four months of the year surpass $11 billion.

Not all bond funds are having bad times.

“After notable outflows last year, core, intermediate-term bond funds saw their second consecutive month of inflows, bringing in $3.3 billion in April,” said Morningstar analyst Michael Rawson, CFA, in a report released Tuesday, which updates its May 2 estimates.

Municipal-bond funds collected $1.3 billion for their fourth straight month of inflows.

Equity Momentum

But in the first four months of 2014, U.S.-equity funds had inflows of $25.2 billion, their strongest start to the year since 2004, the Chicago-based research group says.

“The majority of inflows for the asset class benefited passive funds,” it noted. “Active U.S.-equity funds had outflows of $5.7 billion through April, although JPMorgan, MFS and Putnam have successfully attracted robust flows to active offerings.”

In terms of style categories, large-blend and foreign large-blend led April’s inflows. At the same time, large-growth funds had outflows, including the American Funds Growth Fund of America, which has experienced net redemptions for 51 straight months.

The multi-sector bond category was a popular choice for investors in April, most notably the PIMCO Income Fund—which had $951 million of inflows.

Fund Families

Vanguard’s performance still tops the charts—with $10 billion of net inflows in April and nearly $46 billion so far in 2014.

JPMorgan had April inflows of close to $3 billion; in the first four months of the year, inflows were nearly $11 billion

Dimensional Fund Advisors is close behind, with April inflows of $2.7 billion and year-to-date inflows of $10.4 billion as of April 30, Morningstar says.

Fidelity, however, had outflows of $435 million in April; its year-to-date outflows were close to $2 billion.

American Funds, though, had inflows of $758 in April, and its January-to-April inflows were nearly $2 billion.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Q4 Earnings Preview: Will Amazon's EPS Top Street?

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) will release its fourth quarter financial results on Jan.30. The company will hold a conference call to discuss the operating performance at 2:00 p.m. PT/5:00 p.m. ET on the same day.

Wall Street expects Amazon to report earnings of 66 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus estimate implies more than three fold increase from the 21 cents earned last year.

Amazon's results have managed to top Street view only once in the past four quarters while missing them by a wide margin on two occasions and meeting it in the third quarter. The consensus estimate dropped 3 cents in the last three months while two analysts have raised their profit view for the quarter in the past 30 days.

[Related -Updating Amazon AMZN Gap into Fibonacci Support]

Quarterly revenue is expected to rise 22.60 percent to $26.07 billion from $21.27 billion in the same quarter last year. Amazon sees fourth quarter net sales between $23.5 billion and $26.5 billion, or to grow between 10 and 25 percent from the fourth quarter 2012. The market look at the contributions of North America and International markets.

For the full year, Amazon is expected to earn 73 cents a share on revenue of $74.94 billion. Last year, the online, retail giant reported a loss of 9 cents a share and generated revenue of $61.09 billion.

Amazon's fourth quarter results could be boosted heavily by a strong sales during the holiday season, driven by Kindle shipments and video game sales. This year, there is a difference in Kindle shipping timing, with both the new 7" and 8.9" versions pushed into the fourth quarter this year. This effectively shifts the recognition of new Kindle Fire HDX sales fully into the fourth quarter.

[Related -Level Watching and Swing Trade Planning for Amazon (AMZN)]

UBS analyst Eric Sheridan notes that the updated version of the Kindle Paperwhite eReader sales will benefit from last year's stock-out issues that delayed a portion of shipments into the first quarter 2013.

In addition, high levels of Amazon promotional support and encouraging data points as supportive of strong Kindle Fire HDX sales in the fourth quarter.

As expected, video game console and game sales also appeared to be  winners over the holiday shopping season, and were specifically called out as Black Friday top sellers at Walmart (by the company) and Target (by InfoScout).

Sheridan believes that video game related sales make up anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of Amazon's Media segment and this segment represents about one third of total company sales.

The quarter also saw an uptick in Amazon prime membership. Amazon reported the addition of greater than one million new Prime members during the third week of December alone, noting that total Prime member is now in the "tens of millions". For context, Amazon had approximately 234 million active customers as of the end of the third quarter 2013.

Amazon Prime membership sign up were coming in at such a rapid pace that the company actually had to limit customer sign-ups during peak periods.

Sheridan said a likely contributor to the increase in new members was Amazon's recent (October 2013) free shipping threshold change – increasing the minimum qualifying order value from $25 to $35.

Amazon noted that on Cyber Monday, the peak day for the 2013 holiday season, the company received more than 36.8 million customer orders. This represents a 39 percent increase over last year's peak day (26.5 million units on Cyber Monday, 2012).

Meanwhile, increased fee revenues from 3P sellers should be supportive of gross margin expansion. Investors would be looking for paid unit growth trends, which is a key metric given Amazon's increasing 3P mix and its impact on both reported revenue growth and gross profit margins.

Sheridan noted that the fourth quarter 2013 may have seen a greater mix of 3P units given outside sellers could promote on holiday pages for the first time this year. To that point, the company noted that Cyber Monday 3P units were up 50 percent in 2013. This implies an increase of close to 300bps in 3P mix on Cyber Monday.

The Street will expect updates on international Kindle e-book developments, macro recovery in key European markets and traction in its Amazon Web Services business. They may also focus on any comments over recent rumors of additional hardware launches, such as Kindle smartphone and video game consoles.

Amazon is giving a stiff competition to Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) on the content front. Prime Instant Video selection increased from 33,000 to more than 40,000 movies and TV episodes in 2013. Amazon Instant Video now includes more than 150,000 movies and TV episodes.

A few additional items that may be brought up on the call or mentioned in some form include early progress related to the company's global expansion of the Kindle Appstore; early traction with 3P sellers in India; update around China strategy (Kindle, partnerships); and the potential pace of Amazon Fresh market expansion, including the recently announced Pantry initiative.

Amazon is sacrificing near-term profitability to drive long-term growth as it is investing heavily in Kindle tablets, TV content, Video library and AWS. These heavy investments are weighing on gross margins resulting in losses. Amazon expects third-quarter operating results between a loss of $500 million and a profit of $500 million, compared to $405 million a year-ago.

For the third quarter, the Seattle, Washington-based company reported a net loss of $41 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $274 million, or 60 cents a share, in the third quarter 2012. Net sales increased 24 percent to $17.09 billion in the third quarter.

Amazon has traded in a mixed manner following its last two fourth quarter earnings announcements, increasing 5 percent and decreasing 8 percent, respectively. That said, over a five year span, the average price change post fourth quarter results is a 1.4 percent gain.

Shares of AMZN have gained 19 percent since the last quarterly report and have climbed 52 percent in the last year. They have traded between $245.75 and $408.06 during the past 52-weeks.

JPMorgan Profit Beats Estimates, Despite Madoff Penalties

JPMorgan earningsKathy Willens/AP JPMorgan Chase reported a better-than-expected adjusted quarterly profit as the biggest U.S. bank kept a lid on costs and set aside less money to cover bad loans. The bank, which agreed last week to pay $2.6 billion to settle government and private claims over its handling of accounts of fraudster Bernie Madoff, said fourth-quarter net income fell 7.3 percent to $5.28 billion, or $1.30 a share. Adjusted for special items, the company earned $1.40 a share, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.35, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The results took into account gains from the sale of Visa (V) shares and One Chase Manhattan Plaza and legal expenses related to the Madoff settlements. JPMorgan (JPM), which agreed to pay nearly $20 billion in 2013 to settle assorted legal claims, had estimated that settlement of the Madoff claims would subtract $850 million from fourth-quarter earnings. "It was in the best interests of our company and shareholders for us to accept responsibility, resolve these issues and move forward," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a statement Tuesday. JPMorgan shares, which have been trading this month at their highest levels since 2000, were up 0.5 percent at $58 before the opening bell on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock rose 33 percent in 2013, in line with the 35 percent rise in the KBW Bank index and slightly ahead of the 29 percent gain in Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Special items highlighted by the bank subtracted 10 cents a share from fourth-quarter earnings, compared with a two-cent boost in the same quarter of 2012. The special items included a benefit of 21 cents a share from the sale of Visa shares and 8 cents from the sale of One Chase Manhattan Plaza and an expense of 27 cents a share from legal bills, including the Madoff settlements. Three months ago, JPMorgan reported its first quarterly loss under Dimon after recording after-tax expenses of $7.2 billion to settle government and private investigations. The allegations involved, among other things, shoddy dealing in mortgage instruments before the financial crisis, derivatives trading in London and pricing in electric power markets, as well as failing to report suspicions of wrongdoing by Madoff. Investors have been looking for reassurance from the company that the worst of its legal expenses are behind it. Assets Shrink Noninterest expenses fell 3 percent to $15.55 billion during the quarter, while provisions for bad loans fell 84 percent to $104 million. JPMorgan said its assets shrank to $2.42 trillion at the end of December from $2.46 trillion three months before and $2.36 trillion a year earlier, but it remains the biggest U.S. bank by that measure. Equity underwriting revenue soared 65 percent to $436 million. But investment banking fees were pulled down by lower debt underwriting, where revenue declined 19 percent, and advisory fees, which fell 7 percent. Altogether, investment banking fees declined 3 percent. The bank's market share in equity underwriting rose to 8.3 percent in 2013, moving it to second place in the industry from fourth. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) led with 11.4 percent. Higher interest rates on home mortgage loans weighed on JPMorgan, like the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan lost $274 million, pre-tax, making mortgage loans, compared with a profit of $789 million a year earlier as margins declined and as the company was unable to reduce expenses as quickly as lending volumes declined. The bank said it expected to lose money making mortgages again in the first quarter of this year. Reflecting a slowdown in loan refinancing, total U.S. home mortgage borrowing was down 50 percent at the end of December compared with a year earlier and down by a quarter from the end of September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. -.

Swiss bank UBS blames a rogue trader at its London office for a $2.3 billion loss that is Britain's biggest-ever fraud at a bank. Kweku Adoboli, the 32 year old trader, is sentenced to seven years in prison. Britain's financial regulator fines UBS after finding its internal controls were inadequate and allowed Adoboli, a relatively inexperienced trader, to make vast and risky bets.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Stocks up on hopes Fed stimulus will continue

u.s. stocks, dow

Click the chart for more stock market data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The September jobs report wasn't great, but stocks rose Tuesday as investors anticipated that lackluster hiring will push the Federal Reserve to keep its monetary stimulus as is in the months ahead.

The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were all up modestly. The S&P 500 once again hit an all-time high in morning trading.

The jobs report, which was delayed more than two weeks because of the government shutdown, showed the economy gained just 148,000 jobs last month. But the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.2%, the lowest November 2008.

Still, the numbers suggest that the U.S. economic recovery remains fragile and that the Fed will likely keep buying $85 billion in bonds each month for a bit longer.

The Fed has repeatedly said it wants to see more improvement in the job market before it decides to begin scaling back, or tapering, its bond buying program.

Economists expect the Fed will want more data on how the shutdown impacted the economy before it will be ready to start cutting back on its $85 billion a month in bond purchases. Most economists forecast the central bank won't begin tapering until 2014.

Earnings keep rolling in: After surging to an all-time high in early trading, Netflix (NFLX) reported strong quarterly earnings and a rosy outlook late Monday. Shares initially surged to an all-time high in early trading, but quickly fell into the red.

Netflix shares have been on a tear all year, up 270% so far. But Netflix CEO Reed Hastings said he isn't comfortable with the huge run-up. On a post-earnings conference call with analysts, he said Netflix thinks "momentum investors" are "driving the price more than we like normally" -- but that it's out of the company's control.

StockTwits user keywestbidwacker said Hasting's comments should be a red flag for investors.

"$NFLX never own a stock that a CEO talks down... not shareholder friendly at all... crazy...," he said.

Others suggested that investors who have profited from Netflix's significant advance may be starting to take money off the table to rake in some profit, including billionaire investor Carl Icahn.

"$NFLX Perfect example of not looking a gift horse in the mouth," TechTrader17 said. "I bet Icahn finally took some skin out of the game too."

Delta (DAL, Fo! rtune 500) shares also jumped after the airline reported quarterly profit growth.

DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) reported slightly better quarterly earnings, boosted by a lower tax rate and growth in its electronics and communications business.

Coach (COH) posted earnings and sales that missed forecasts, led by a drop in domestic sales. The one bright spot was China, where sales jumped 35%.

Lockheed Martin (LMT, Fortune 500) shares rose after the aircraft manufacturer reported a jump in quarterly profit, year over year, and increased its full-year outlook. The good news came despite the government shutdown, which led Lockheed and other defense contractors to furlough some workers.

Whirlpool cleans up   Whirlpool cleans up

Whirlpool (WHR, Fortune 500) shares rallied after the home appliance giant reported a third-quarter profit that doubled from a year ago and boosted its outlook for the year.

Tablet-palooza: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) will be in the spotlight in the afternoon, when it hosts an event at which it is expected to unveil a new version of the iPad.

Nokia (NOK), which is selling its device business to Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), unveiled its first full-size tablet and a pair of big-screen colorful Lumia smartphones earlier Tuesday. Shares of Nokia were also up after Dan Loeb said his hedge fund Third Point purchased a stake in Nokia during the third quarter. In a letter to clients, Loeb said he made the purchase after the sale to Microsoft was announced.

"Here come the activist investors! $NOK," said StockTwits user CS917047.

One trader said he expects Loeb's position could help drive shares of Nokia up 10% in the coming weeks.

"$NOK Now everyone is positive except some early bargain hunters who are exiting like Nordea," s! aid mecka! . "Dan Loeb will take it to $8 in few weeks."

European markets edged higher in afternoon trading. Asian markets ended the day mixed. Stocks in Hong Kong fell after a weak earnings report from China Mobile (CHL), while Japan's Nikkei inched higher. To top of page

Friday, January 9, 2015

7 Alternative Investments You Should Think Twice About


It's hard to get rich with collected items. Source: Flickr user Masked Builder.

For one reason or another, many of us will occasionally turn our gazes to alternative investments. We may have grown impatient with our stock portfolio or been dazzled by spectacular performance in some niche sector, or we have been persuaded by some breathless email or newsletter. In any case, it's worth remembering that many alternative investments are not as great as they may seem, and some are rather dangerous.

First, though, what exactly is an alternative investment? Well, conventional investments include stocks, bonds, cash, and savings accounts, to name a few. Now let's review a handful of alternative investments and what makes them riskier than investors may realize.

Penny stocks
Although they are stocks, penny stocks are something of an alternative investment because they're a unique kind of stock with particular qualities. Penny stocks are tantalizing to naive investors who love the idea of owning 20,000 shares of a stock for a total of just $1,000. They don't appreciate that a $200-per-share stock might in fact be a better bargain and that they'd be far better off spending that $1,000 on five shares of it. Penny stocks are often tied to extra-risky, unproven companies with captivating stories (a cure for cancer! An imminent big oil discovery!), no profits, and armies of con artists making money by hyping them up and then selling them. Remember that a $2 stock can quickly become a $0.20 one -- and often does.

Gold hasn't been the best long-term investment. Source: Flickr user Bullion Vault.

Gold
Investing in gold is not a new idea, but the precious metal is volatile and doesn't have the best long-term track record. Wharton Business School professor Jeremy Siegel's data shows that while gold delivered an inflation-adjusted average annual return of 11.8% between 2000 and 2012, it averaged close to 2% between 1926 and 2012. Many choose it as a hedge against inflation, but it doesn't always offer much protection. Over the past three years, for example, the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) has lost an annual average of 9.3%. Over the past five years, it has averaged a 1% gain.

Further, as Warren Buffett has noted, gold is an "unproductive asset": While you can invest in companies that provide real goods and services for money, gold just sits there, with few practical uses outside of jewelry. Some think of it as a "safe" investment, but its value fluctuations are unpredictable.

Hedge funds
It might seem as if hedge fund investors are making big money, but that's often not the case. In 2014, for example, they gained about 2%, on average, while the S&P 500 advanced about 14%. Most of us can't invest in hedge funds period, as they tend to be restricted to "qualified investors" who are generally wealthy. Investors are typically charged "2 and 20," meaning they fork over 2% of their invested assets each year as a management fee (whereas managed stock mutual funds charge fees closer to 1%, while index funds frequently charge less than 0.25%), and then they also fork over 20% of any gains. Ouch.

The rationale for the high fees is that hedge funds deliver outstanding returns -- except many of them don't. Some are charging less these days, but even half of "2 and 20" is exorbitant. You can get great performance for far less.

Real estate generally doesn't grow in value as briskly as stocks. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Real estate
If you want to buy a home in order to have a nice place to live, go right ahead. But if you're thinking of your home as a great investment, think again. Nobel-prize-winning economist Robert Shiller is famous for his studies of the housing market, and per his data, housing prices have grown at a compound annual rate of just 0.3% over the past century (inflation-adjusted), while the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 6.5%. And that's just an average; those who bought in the wrong places at the wrong time fared even worse.

Worse still, real estate has some big drawbacks compared to, say, stocks. For one thing, you can't liquidate a home quickly, and you can't sell off part of your home in order to generate some needed funds. If you're thinking of buying property in order to rent it out, give a lot of thought to how easily you'll take to being a landlord and dealing with late-night emergency repairs and tenants who don't pay. It's not for everyone, and when you crunch the numbers, it may not even be that lucrative for you.

Commodities
Those who recommend investing in commodities -- i.e., raw materials or agricultural products such as grains, pork bellies, oil, copper, coffee, and sugar -- often explain that they offer diversification and a hedge against inflation. On the other hand, they commodities be very volatile. They're about twice as volatile as an S&P 500 index fund (remember that the S&P 500 is capable of big drops, too -- such as its 37% plunge in 2008) and nearly four times as volatile as a bond fund benchmark. You can lose a lot of money in commodities, especially if you're not familiar with them.

Forex
The foreign exchange market, or "Forex," has attracted many investors with its steep leverage capabilities. Whereas you can only have 2-to-1 leverage in stocks, you can have 50-to-1 in foreign currencies. This means you can make a lot with a little -- and you can also lose a lot more than you may realize you're putting at risk. You're also involved in making bets on currencies, and you may not understand interest rate movements, global economics, or how the fast-moving, volatile market works well enough to succeed in it.

Collectibles
Let's end with collectibles, as some people out there are filling drawers and cupboards with baseball cards, comics, wines, coins, and so on. Such collections might give you great pleasure, but they won't necessarily make you rich. Again, you need to research and understand the market on a deep level. Rare items can indeed develop great value, but many items produced today are produced in great quantities, making them less likely to fetch much in the future.

There are other alternative investments out there, too. Remember that oftentimes, what seems too good to be true is simply not true. Money can be made in many alternative investments, but those investments shouldn't be taken lightly. Fortunately, though stocks are pretty "mainstream," they've nonetheless made a lot of people wealthy over the long run.

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