Dreamworks Shares Draggin’ On Weak Box Office For “Dragon” (Updated)

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) shares are getting clobbered this morning after a disappointing opening weekend for the film How To Train Your Dragon.

The film took in $43 million in domestic opening week box office receipts; Janney Capital analyst Tony Wible notes that this is well short of his forecast for more than $65 million in ticket sales. He and other analysts say the film seems to have been hurt by current competition from Alice in Wonderland, and the pending release of Clash of the Titans next week. Wible estimates the movie’s eventual total domestic gross at $152 million, well below his old forecast of $250 million.

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Benjamin Mogil likewise found the early results from the movie disappointing, and sliced his price target on DWA shares to $44, from $47, though he keeps his Overweight rating, and says the more critical release for the company is Shrek 4, which is due later this year.

Cowen’s Doug Creutz says worldwide box office for the move is now likely to be in the low $400 million range, or about $120 million below his forecast. While he did not formally cut his estimates, he writes that 2010 EPS could be about $2.05, below is old forecast of $2.51.

DWA is down $3.70, or 8.6%, to $39.11.

Update: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen this morning downgraded DWA to Underperform from Buy, citing the weak results for the movie over the weekend. “Despite mostly positive reviews, competition from other 3D titles, a limited 3D footprint and recent price increases may have all contributed to Dragon’s poor opening,” she writes. Her new price target is $40.