Six buy-recommended global energy stocks flow cash at a rate that exceeds stock market cap and debt in less than five years. Unlevered cash flow multiples (EV/Ebitda) below 5.0 identify the gushers. U.S. Integrated buy recommendations Marathon Oil (MRO) and Chevron (CVX) regenerate in an estimated 4.9 and 4.5 years, respectively. The measures for European buy recommendations Total (TOT) and Statoil (STO) are 4.3 and 4.1. Rounding out the six are Russian buy recommendations Gazprom (OGZPY.PK) and Lukoil (LUKOY.PK) at 4.1 and 3.4.
Cash flow responds to an uptrend in long-term oil futures price quoted for the next six years. In the past week, one-year futures have seized leadership by crossing above six-year futures in a trading condition known as backwardation. Refining margins are also strengthening with a diesel fuel shortage in rapidly growing China and strong demand for heating fuel with cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
Among the six cash generators, CVX is most concentrated on oil at 71%. Gazprom is the natural gas leader at 82% while Lukoil is the refining leader at 34%. TOT and STO are high dividend payers at 5.9% and 4.6% a year. Lukoil’s dividend of 2.8% is supplemented by the recent repurchase of stock. All of the stocks are in price uptrends compared to 200-day averages except TOT, which may soon join its up-trending peers judging by recent market conditions.
Originally published on December 7, 2010.
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