A Weak Employment Report

Health care and temporary service employment accounted for the bulk of the weaker-than-expected payroll report, and the so-called underemployment rate actually rose. The BLS writes,

Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 in
March. Since last September, employment in this industry has
grown by 313,000, or 18 percent.

Health care added 27,000 jobs in March, compared with an
average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Mining
employment rose by 8,000 in March. This industry has added
31,000 jobs since last October.

Throw in 15,000 factory jobs, and that’s it. The ADP report showed a decline in manufacturing employment, so that’s within the range of statistical error. It’s remarkable how little manufacturing employment has grown given the improvements in Asia, suggesting that the tidal effect of Asian growth on the US is limited.

A major factor in the improvement is the fact that construction employment has stabilized at extremely low levels. It really is so bad that it can’t get much worse. During the past two months, construction deducted about 60,000 from the totals. Add this to the 48,000 pop in census-driven government employment, and the number looks very weak indeed.