The U.S. wireless market has hit the saturation point, according to Auriga USA analyst Chandan Sarkar.
In a research note this morning, Sarkar reports that U.S. market penetration is now slightly over 90% – in short, almost every one who could possibly want a cell phone now has one. While there is still plenty of opportunity for smart phones to take share from feature phones, for the carriers to grow their subscriber counts, they will have to take market share from rivals – which is why the news that the iPhone could be coming to Verizon Wireless is such a big deal.
Sarkar today chopped his forecasts for post-paid net subscriber adds for both Verizon and AT&T. For Q1, he now sees Verizon net adds at 650,000, down from 750,000; for AT&T, his new forecast is 475,000, down from 600,000. For 2010, his Verizon estimate is down to 2.9 million, down from 3.2 million; for AT&T, 2.2 million, down from 2.6 million.
In fact, Sarkar asserts that for the U.S. wireless industry overall, post-paid net adds could turn negative as early as the second quarter. (That is, the one that starts tomorrow.)
Sarkar has Hold ratings on both VZ and T.
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