More dour data points today for the PC industry.
Nomura Equity Research’s Rick Sherlund this morning reflects on declining estimates offered over the weekend in a private report from Gartner.
Gartner, writes Sherlund, cut its PC growth forecast for this year to just 0.9% from a prior 4.4%, in unit terms, and cut 2013′s outlook to 11.1% from 11.9% previously. Tablets, however, Gartner said, will continue their robust rise. The firm sees 45% unit growth in 2013.
Some of this has to do with the introduction of Microsoft‘s (MSFT) next version of Windows, he thinks, Windows 8, which is expected by September or October, some with economic weakness, some with the pace of roll-out of�Intel‘s (INTC) latest processors:
Gartner has not provided an update to quarterly numbers at this stage, although we suspect that the reduced expectations are driven by uncertainty over the PC environment for the 2H�12. In a recent update our colleague Eve Jung expects 2Q shipments to be around 1% y/y (+5% q/q) for the top-tier NB ODMs due to weak May shipments driven by deteriorating end-demand in Europe during the quarter and shipment delays from Intel�s Ivy Bridge CPUs, which are expected to start to ramp in June.
Sherlund, who has a Buy rating on Microsoft shares, is holding off for now on revising his Microsoft estimates, choosing to “see how the rest of the quarter plays out.”
Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek, meantime, thinks that consumer PC sales continue to be dogged by shifting preferences for tablets instead of desktops and laptops:
We believe sales of traditional PCs to consumers continue to be challenged by secular headwinds such as the cannibalization by tablets and smartphones. Near-term headwinds include the pause due to Windows 8 launching in the fall, and the weak macro environment. Additionally, for enterprise, we believe we are approaching the end of the corporate PC refresh cycle.
Microsoft shares today are down 22 cents, or 0.7%, at $29.80.
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