Canada’s latest trade data show the country’s exports sustained strong growth during September, which more than halved the country’s trade deficit from the prior month. According to Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted exports rose 1.8 percent in September, to CAD40.6 billion, the highest level since late 2011.
And because imports increased just 0.2 percent, to CAD41.1 billion, that was good enough to pare the country’s trade deficit to CAD435 million from a revised CAD1.1 billion in August. This performance blew past expectations, with the consensus forecast having been for a trade deficit of CAD1 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 19 institutional economists.
So does that mean the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hope for the economy to shift from its dependence on weakening domestic demand has finally been realized? It’s entirely possible, but economists remain skeptical.
For one, the balance of payments can vary widely from month to month. June’s trade deficit was just CAD141 million, while March had a shortfall of CAD278 million. But these promising showings were each followed by months in which the trade deficit exceeded CAD1 billion.
Moreover, when viewed from this perspective, Canada still seems to be struggling to establish a firmly positive trend in international trade. Over the past five years, the country’s monthly trade deficit has averaged CAD613 million, while over the past year it’s averaged CAD824 million.
However, when we examine just export data, the trend appears a bit friendlier. Canada’s monthly exports have averaged CAD35.9 billion over the past five years, while over the trailing year they’ve averaged around CAD39.4 billion. So something’s happening, even if, as BoC Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem recently noted, exports still have significant lost ground to make up to return to pre-recession levels.
Further complicating the interpretation of recent trade data is the fact that the industries that have been driving recent results tend to be volatile in the short term. Canada’s resource riches mean energy products accounted for nearly a quarter of total exports in September. And according to economists with CIBC World Markets, energy products drove 60 percent of the third quarter’s CAD714 billion increase in exports.
While energy exports have jumped almost 23 percent year over year, the prices that energy commodities fetch are notoriously volatile. For instance, Western Canada Select (WCS), a benchmark for the heavier crude produced from the country’s oil sands, has seen its usual discount to the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) widen significantly since June. WCS recently traded at a USD36.25 discount to WTI, a stark contrast to a discount of just USD9.26 in June, or even its five-year average discount of USD17.20.
Canadian crude shipments have been crowded out from pipelines leading to key US refineries by competition from the prolific US shale plays. And even when pipelines have been more accommodative, some refineries have been down for maintenance, adding to Alberta’s glut of supply, which itself has been increasing thanks to new production from the Kearl project. That means higher volumes, not prices, have been key to the energy sector’s performance.
The aircraft industry has also posted strong export growth, up 11.6 percent over the past year. But with a CAD1.2 billion contribution to total exports, it’s more of a marginal player whose monthly gains can prove evanescent over longer-term periods.
Overall, we’re heartened to see the energy sector drive Canada’s export growth, since resource plays are a strong component of our Portfolios. But it still remains to be seen when total exports will start growing at the pace necessary to drive the country’s economy.
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